Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
On Thursday, a mouth-watering Matchday 1 in the Champions League will draw to a close with Sporting Lisbon, Portugal’s perennial powerhouse, playing host to the kings of Kazakhstan, Kairat Almaty. Leoes reached the knockout phase Playoffs in this competition last season, while the Nation’s Team are making their European top-flight debut. Check out our match prediction below!
Kairat Almaty will make history this week, set to enter their first-ever Champions League campaign, embodying the essence of David among Europe's goliaths. Ahead of the Kazakh champions lies a historic journey, both literally and figuratively, with their 6,900km trip to Lisbon being the longest ever undertaken by a team in the Champions League.
Awaiting this season’s quintessential underdogs are Sporting CP, who underwent massive changes last term, both on and off the field. Now set to take charge of his first full UCL campaign at Estadio Jose Alvalade, this represents an incredible opportunity for Rui Borges to lay down an early marker. Let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Sporting Lisbon v Kairat Almaty Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 | 11 | 26 |
|
|
1.1 | 11 | 29 |
|
|
1.08 | 11 | 26 |
|
|
1.09 | 10 | 23 |
|
|
1.08 | 11.5 | 29 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty?
Our prediction for the Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty match is: Sporting Lisbon wins & BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/09/2025 between Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.07% for a win of Sporting Lisbon against Kairat Almaty with odds of 1.1 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty is 14.66% with odds of 13 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Kairat Almaty vs Sporting Lisbon with odds of 32 at 22bet.
Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty Form
Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
7
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Jul 2025 - Portugal Super Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Jul 2025 - Portugal Super Cup
25 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
25 May 2025 - Taca de Portugal
10 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Champions League
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
16 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Champions League
16 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
6 Aug 2025 - Champions League
2 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
29 Jul 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
26 Jul 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
22 Jul 2025 - Champions League
8 Jul 2025 - Champions League
Sporting Lisbon - Kairat Almaty: Form Analysis
Under the guidance of Ruben Amorim, Sporting Lisbon earned 10 points from their first four UCL League Phase matches last season, capped off by a stunning 4-1 victory over Man City.
Following Amorim’s departure, though, Joao Pereira and Rui Borges combined only managed to add a single point to that tally before bowing out at the next hurdle, 3-0 against Borussia Dortmund.
Domestically, the Green and Whites only secured the title last term on the final day after Benfica fluffed their lines against Braga. This season, they are trailing Porto by three points after five matches.
However, Sporting have only lost one of their last 10 home matches (excluding friendlies)!
Meanwhile, Kairat returned to the summit of the Kazakhstan Premier League last year for the first time since 2020. Their only previous European main draw appearance was in the inaugural edition of the Conference League in 2021-22.
The Almaty-based side produced a remarkable qualifying run, overcoming Olimpija (3-1), KuPs (3-2) and Slovan Bratislava (2-1), before stunning Scottish powerhouse Celtic on penalties.
Living up to one of their nicknames, Kairat Concrete, the cornerstone of the visitors' success during qualifying was their sturdy defence. They kept five clean sheets in eight games - including home and away against the Hoops.
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Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Sporting Lisbon & Kairat Almaty Squad Analysis
Borges is missing a few key players in defence at present, with centre-back Ousmane Diomande and left-back Nuno Santos both ruled out, while first-team keeper Rui Silva is a major doubt.
Also appearing on the hosts’ casualty list are Nuno Santos, Daniel Braganaca and Hidemasa Morita. Geny Catamo is having his workload managed and is likely to sit out this match.
Luis Suarez has recorded five goal contributions in as many league games this term!
The Colombian international has huge boots to fill since Viktor Gyokeres’ move to North London, and he should lead the line here alongside Pedro Goncalves and Geovany Quenda.
Kairat, meanwhile, were dealt a massive blow this past weekend, with their penalty-shootout hero from the second leg against Celtic, Temirlan Anarbekov, sustaining an injury after just 13 minutes against Aktobe.
Anarbekov was filling in for regular first-team shot-stopper Aleksandr Zarutskiy, and with both Kazakhstan internationals now ruled out, 18-year-old Sherkhan Kalmurza will be entrusted between the sticks.
Dastan Satpayev was the team’s top scorer during qualifying with three goals and picked up his ninth in the league this season over the weekend. He will almost certainly line up alongside Edmilson in attack for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
Sporting Lisbon
Kairat Almaty
P. Goncalves
(4 Goals)
P. Goncalves
(3 Assists)
,
G. Quenda
(3 Assists)
Sporting Lisbon - Kairat Almaty Key Points
- Sporting Lisbon have won four of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Sporting Lisbon have only lost one of their last 10 competitive home matches.
- Sporting Lisbon have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 competitive home matches.
- Kairat Almaty failed to score in any of their final three UCL qualifier matches.
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Our Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty Prediction
Kairat Almaty will arrive in Lisbon with a mixture of nerves and ambition, but they enter their first-ever Champions League match as the biggest underdogs of any team on Matchday 1 of the season.
The Kazakh outfit’s greatest strength during qualifying was their defence, which will be tested to the max here, and their task is made all the more difficult given they are missing both first-choice goalkeepers. Therefore, we have to go with the hosts to get the win in this one. Our Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty prediction is Sporting Lisbon wins & BTTS (NO).
Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty - Other Interesting Predictions
Luis Suarez to score anytime
Luis Suarez was the highest goal scorer in the Spanish Segunda Division last season with 27 goals, and he has scored three goals in his last four league games for his new team. Additionally, the 27-year-old netted four times for Colombia against Venezuela during the international break.
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Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty will take place on September 18 at 19:00 GMT.
The Champions League match between Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty will be played at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon.
The Champions League match between Sporting Lisbon and Kairat Almaty will be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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