Champions League Betting Tips
Find our tips on every game of the UEFA Champions League, as well as all you need to know to bet on this European football competition.
Champions League Presentation - Football
The UEFA Champions League is one of the most prestigious competitions in European football. Each season the best teams in Europe compete for the title, each of whom qualify based on their results in respective domestic league. For example, in England the top four teams in the Premier League claim their spots in the next edition of the Champions League - which in the 2019/20 season will be Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. The format of the competition is simple - eight groups of four teams are drawn for the initial phase of the tournament, with every team in each group playing each other twice (once at home and once away). At the end of the six matchdays of the group phase, the teams that rank at the top of each group qualify for the Round of 16, while the third-place teams qualify for the Europa League (see also our Europa League predictions). Thus the knockout stage of the competition begins, and runs until the Champions League Final in May - where the winners will be crowned Champions of Europe. Last year, at the end of a breathtaking season, it was Liverpool who claimed the title in Madrid.
Champions League experts predictions
One of the key points to remember about the Champions League is that it is a very prolific competition! Last year, for example, an average of 2.93 goals were scored per game over the course of the tournament, one of the best goals per game ratios in the world. This is especially the case in the group phase of the competition - so if you’re looking to place a winning bet it would make sense to look towards the goals market on the Champions League.
Another important aspect of the Champions League is the ratio of home victories - a trend which continues year after year. In a similar vein to the last five years of the competition, almost two in five games ended in the success of the home team (39.5%), while the rate of draws was also quite high (21%). While this trend remained positive last season, in the coming 2019/20 season it might be best to ignore the opinion that the home team is superior - instead, bet on the strongest and most experienced teams! Surprises are increasingly rare in this competition, especially in the group stage.
Developing on what we mentioned earlier, the Champions League is without doubt one of the most spectacular competitions in the word of football, whether in terms of play or goals scored. You should know that almost six out of ten games in the last season resulted in +2.5 goals (58.4%), and this figure increased to 63% during the group phase of the competition. The odds offered by the bookmakers on this market can often be very favourable, so don’t hesitate to combine bets over the course of the competition. Even a £10 bet can result in a big payout - so don’t forget it for the 2019/20 season.
On the other hand, we would advise you to limit your bets on the exact scores of the competition - particularly in the group phase, the final scores vary greatly from one pool to another. However, if you are determined to try a punt on this market, you should know that 17% of matches ended with a scoreline of 2-0, while the majority of matches ended in a goalless draw. A difficult betting market to predict, so why not turn instead to a bet on the away team to score, which was validated in 65% of matches last season.
Another key statistic of the Champions League is the hour of play in which goals are scored. More than in any other competition, goals are scored in the final minutes of Champions League games - with 26.7% of all goals in the competition scored in the 75’-90’ interval last season. This is a massive ratio - just over one in four - which is explained by the fact that teams go all-for-nothing in the closing stages of games in this competition. The odds on goals scored during this segment of the game often fall around 2/1 - our expert’s advice is to go for it!
Finally, for your Champions League predictions, in the final phase of last year's competition 65% of teams that played at home in the second leg qualified for the next round. That’s over 6 cases out of 10, so when our football experts advise betting on the home team in the second leg, their word is more often than not reliable.
How to predict Champions League matches
After having discussed the statistics of the competition - which will give you some good indications for you bets - let’s now consider the other factors to take into account before placing your bets on the Champions League. It will, of course, be necessary to analyse not only the form of each team, but also of the key players of each side. For example, two seasons ago when he was wearing the white jersey of Real Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo was key to the success of Los Blancos, evidenced by his ratio of 1.16 goals per game over his five seasons playing for the club. If star players like Lionel Messi, Neymar or Mohamed Salah have struggled at their respective clubs in the weeks leading up to a game, it might be best to think again before placing your Champions League bet.
In the same vein, keeping up to date on the injury and suspension of players can be crucial for placing Champions League predictions. If a major player, such as Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid, is unavailable for an upcoming match against a big opponent, this could obviously have a big impact on the final result of the game, regardless of the stage of the competition.
Next, of course, it will be necessary to consider the stakes of the match. Say, for example, that the team you intend to back has already qualified for the Round of 16, but still have to play one more game in the Group Stage. If their opponent is still in the running for the other qualifying place from their group, it may be a good idea to place a bet on the underdog rather than the favourite, as they will have more to gain from a win in the upcoming match. The same reasoning applies for the knockout phase, as if a team beats their opponent 6-0 in the opening leg, they may not perform to the same level in the second leg.
The final key point to remember is to always compare odds on the Champions League before placing your bets. As we are sure you know, it regularly occurs that different bookmakers will offer different odds values for the same bet - so to ensure that you can always bet on the best odds on the market, make sure to register with all of the top bookmakers. For an average Champions League match, Bet365 might offer odds of 2/1 on Manchester City to beat Bayern Munich, as opposed to odds of 4/5 offered by William Hill. In the long run, your total winnings will be affected - so always remember to compare odds before betting.
How to bet on the Champions League groups
As well as the matches of the Champions League themselves, you can also bet on the results of the groups themselves for next seasons competition. At almost every online bookmaker, you can bet on which two teams will qualify from each group, as well as which team will top the group.
To have success in your sports betting on this market, there are a number of elements that you will need to consider. As well as the form of each team, or their historical performance in the competition, you should also consider the fixture schedule. If a team is scheduled to meet one of their fiercest opponents in the final day of group games, you might have to prioritise their qualification for the knockout stages, or even their final position as group leader.
Betting tips on the Champions League top Scorer
Another Champions League betting market that is a fan-favourite is predictions on the competition's top scorer. Year upon year, online bookmakers offer exciting odds on the player that will finish the competition with the most goals scored over the course of the tournament. If you want to try your luck on the 2019/20 season, you will of course have to consider the performance of your player of choice in recent editions of the competition, as well as the tactics adopted by his team (do they focus on offensive or defensive play?). The number of games that a team will play also have a major impact on this market. For example, last year's top goalscorer Lionel Messi made it to the Semi-finals of the competition with Barcelona, while second place Robert Lewandowski was knocked out of the tournament in the Round of 16 with Bayern Munich. For next season’s competition, you would not be out of line to bet Messi to be prolific once again, as the Argentinian continues to shine in every season of the Champions League.
Champions League 2019/20: Our free betting tips
It was Liverpool who claimed the 2019 Champions League title, the sixth in the club’s history. Jurgen Klopp’s side beat Tottenham 2-0 at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid, with a penalty from Salah in the 2nd minute and a goal from Origi in the 87th driving the Reds to victory, just one year after their Final defeat to Real Madrid. This win also established Liverpool’s place as the most successful English side in the competition - with Manchester United following behind with three CL titles.Should the 2019/20 Champions League be as thrilling and full of surprises as this season’s edition, it seems that at the moment it is complicated to determine a clear favourite. As always, the transfer window will likely change the fortunes of many clubs, particularly those who struggled this season (such as Real Madrid and PSG). As usual, the big names of the competition will likely have their say - such as the reigning Champions Liverpool, Barcelona, Manchester City or Bayern Munich. Having qualified for the group stage, Europa League winners Chelsea and this year’s runners up Tottenham will have their work cut out for them - the forecasts are already looking intriguing.