Morocco vs Mali Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in AFCON Predictions
The AFCON hosts Morocco are already on track to finish first in Group A and can even seal a qualification spot if they beat Mali in round 2. But The Eagles are determined to make life difficult for the Atlas Lions as they fight for a second-place finish. Let's get into our match prediction!
Morocco hit the ground running with a clean 2-0 win over Comoros that could've easily been 4-0 or more after a missed penalty and 2 big chances wasted. That's the kind of performance you can only expect from the best-performing African nation today, boasting the 11th spot in the FIFA rankings. The Atlas Lions have been so good that their senior team's last defeat was 22 games ago, where they lost 2-0 to South Africa almost 24 months ago!
Mali must be scratching their heads for a game plan to upset the Moroccans on Friday, especially with Zambia’s dying-minute equaliser in round 1 threatening their chances of a second-place finish. Can The Eagles spot and exploit gaps in Morocco's seemingly impenetrable armour to keep their knockout hopes alive?
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Morocco v Mali Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.49 | 4 | 7.2 |
|
|
1.48 | 3.84 | 8.69 |
|
|
1.48 | 3.84 | 8.69 |
|
|
1.53 | 3.8 | 7 |
|
|
1.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Morocco and Mali?
Our prediction for the Morocco vs Mali match is: Morocco wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/12/2025 between Morocco and Mali in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 66% for a win of Morocco against Mali with odds of 1.53 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Morocco vs Mali is 18.18% with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 15.82% chance ⭐ for a win of Mali vs Morocco with odds of 8.69 at Melbet.
Morocco - Mali Prediction and Best Odds:
| Morocco Mali Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco wins | 66% | 1.53 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 65.95% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 87.5% | 1.57 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Morocco | 30.98% | 4 at Bet365 |
Morocco vs Mali Form
Morocco and Mali's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 |
|
2
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Morocco and Mali Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
15 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
11 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
15 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
11 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
2 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
30 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
6 Sept 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Morocco vs Mali Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
7 Feb 2021 - African Nations Championship
Morocco - Mali: Form Analysis
Form-wise, there's no nation statistically on a better run than Morocco right now. They just won the Arab Cup and the 2025 CHAN, but those games were played by entirely different squads.
The Atlas Lions senior team, which is in focus, have been even more impressive, earning the 11th spot in FIFA rankings.
Morocco’s senior team now won 19 games, netting 57 goals and conceding just four.
Morocco also just kept their 10th clean sheet in a row in their 2-0 win over Comoros.
Mali remain undefeated in their last four games, but the latest performances have been underwhelming. They've drawn back-to-back games against Jordan (0-0) and now Zambia (1-1).
The Eagles are notoriously deadly on the offence, with ten goals scored in their last six games. They outclassed Zambia in the opening game and should've scored more goals but for a missed first-half penalty and three wasted big chances.
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Morocco against Mali Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Substitutes
M. Harrar
M. El Kajoui
DefenderM. Chibi
A. Ait Boudlal
Y. Belammari
A. Hakimi
A. Masina
MidfielderO. Targhalline
B. El Khannouss
C. Talbi
ForwardA. Ezzalzouli
S. Rahimi
E. Ben Seghir
I. Akhomach
Y. En-Nesyri
I. Diawara
M. Samassa
DefenderF. Doucoure
A. Dante
M. Fofana
MidfielderG. Diarra
K. Doumbia
M. Camara
I. Sissoko
A. Haidara
ForwardG. Diakite
N. Dorgeles
E. Toure
M. Camara
M. Doumbia
Morocco & Mali Squad Analysis
Achraf Hakimi, Morocco's star man and the current African Player of the Year winner, is available but remains doubtful, with full recovery still the coach's priority.
But Morocco can still do well without him, especially with Man United's Noussair Mazraoui filling Hakimi’s shoes.
Mazraoi has assisted in his last three games and four of his last five for Morocco.
Youssef En-Nesyri didn't start the last game, but should lead the line against Mali as the stakes get higher.
Brahim Diaz opened his scoring account with one against Comoros. But Ayoub El Kaabi was equally impressive with the second bench from that seen the Olympiacos record 7 goals and 1 assist in his last 8 games.
Bono and the Morocco defence will need to watch out for Lassine Sinayoko. His goal against Zambia has now seen the Auxerre winger net four goals in his last three games and three goals in his last two for the country alone.
Most goals and assists
Morocco
Mali
B. Diaz
(5 Goals)
L. Sinayoko
(3 Goals)
A. Ounahi
(2 Assists)
Morocco - Mali Key Points
- Morocco has won 19 consecutive senior team games (a world record).
- The Atlas Lions senior team has won their last ten games with a clean sheet.
- Morocco has scored 23 goals in 11 games this year, over 2.0 goals per game.
- Mali are winless in their last two games, scoring only one goal.
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Our Morocco vs Mali Prediction
Mali are a pretty decent team and are definitely capable of an upset, looking at their stats on paper. However, Morocco is currently one of the best-performing nations around the globe. Their win against Comoros extended the senior team's world record of most wins in a row by a nation (now 19).
Their success lies in solidity across all areas of the pitch, and the 23 goals and with only 1 conceded across 11 games in 2025 underlines that. Hence, our Morocco vs Mali prediction is that Morocco wins.
Morocco vs Mali Alternative Predictions
Morocco over 1.5 goals
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Morocco Mali
| Morocco vs Mali | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco wins | 1.42 | 1.53 | +7.7% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.2 | -3.0% |
| Mali wins | 8 | 8.69 | +8.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Morocco is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 70.4% and is now 65.4% (-5.1%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
