French Ligue 1 2022/23 Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free Ligue 1 prediction for who we believe will be the top teams in the 2023-24 season. We'll supply you with plenty of information for your sports betting with our expert betting predictions.

Ligue 1 presentation and predictions - Football

Ligue 1 is the competition that gamblers love to bet on in France. Throughout the season, the matches involving the top 18 French teams have bets placed on them. Plenty of focus is placed on the battle to win the title, qualify for Europe or avoid relegation. 

From the first matchday in August to the last in May 2024, our experts' Ligue 1 predictions will help you get the best out of online sports betting sites. Discover our general predictions below, as well as statistics and tips on how to make the best Ligue 1 football predictions. Predictions on every Ligue 1 matchday are always a thrill.

Ligue 1 winner prediction: who will win the championship and the league title?

In its first 18-team season since the reform was approved in June 2021, Ligue 1 looks set to be hotly contested from top to bottom until the end of the 2023-2024 season.

From the Velodrome to Pierre Mauroy, Groupama Stadium and Parc des Princes, France's top clubs will be vying for the league title, places in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, and simply to stay in the top flight.

As far as the league title is concerned, PSG are once again the bookies' favorite . Although it may not be as straightforward as it was a few years ago, the Parisians still have what it takes to clinch a third consecutive title and keep the trophy in their own hands.

Olympique de Marseille, a regular in recent seasons and one of the biggest clubs in Ligue 1 history, as well as the usual Rennes, Monaco and Lyon will have their say, but should find it difficult to compete over 34 rounds. The most reliable Ligue 1 prediction is as follows: PSG champions of France 2023-2024.

Ligue 1 prediction - odds on the favorites to win the French title

• Paris Saint Germain - 1.25
• Marseilles - 9.00
• Monaco - 15.00
• Lille - 21.00
• Rennes - 51.00
• Lens - 67.00
• Nice - 67.00
• Lyon - 81.00

Odds taken from Bet365 and  Vbet.co.uk.

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Ligue 1 prediction on the Top 4: who will qualify for the Champions League?

This season, in addition to the eventual French champions, the teams finishing second and third in Ligue 1 will qualify for the group stages of the 2024-2025 Champions League. Previously it was the top two that having avoided to play a qualifying match. However, that's changed as the Champions League has a new format next season. The good news for French clubs is that the side finishing in fourth place will go into the qualifying rounds of the Champions League.  Our prediction for the four Champions League places is as follows: PSG, Olympique de Marseille, Rennes and Lyon .

Behind Paris-Saint-Germain, who are expected to again be French champions, Marseille look more than capable of taking second place. As for Rennes, the Bretons have been among the most consistent performers in Ligue 1 for the last five years, and could be on their way back to success. Lyon could well fill fourth position and qualify for the Champions League.

Ligue 1 prediction - odds on the favorites for a place in the Top 4

• PSG - 1.01
• Marseille - 1.44
• Monaco - 1.57
• Lille - 1.91
• Rennes - 2.61
• Nice - 3.25
• Lens - 5.00
• Lyon - 5.50
• Strasbourg - 8.00

Odds from  Bet365.com 

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Who Will Finish in the Top Five?

As well as the winner of the French Cup (the League Cup has now ended), the fifth-placed Ligue 1 side will qualify for the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League. It used to be the side finishing fourth but that's changed this season due to the upcoming changes to the Champions League. If the French Cup winners finish in the top 5 in Ligue 1, then it'll be the team finishing sixth will take the Europa League place. For the top five in Ligue 1 in the 2023/23 season, we should see PSG, Marseille, Rennes, Lyon and Monaco. 

It's as a safe bet that Ligue 1's top five will include these sides. Our prediction: PSG, Marseille, Rennes, Lyon and Monaco

Ligue 1 prediction - odds on the favorites for a place in the Top 5

Odds are not yet available from bookmakers for this Top 5 bet. In the meantime, visit Bet365.com to find all current Ligue 1 bets.

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Who Will Finish in the Top Six?

This season, it's the team that finishes sixth in Ligue 1 that will qualify for the 2024-25 Conference League rather than the fifth as was the case in previous seasons. However, if a team that finishes in the top five wins the French Cup, it'll be the team in seventh that will qualify.  

The Top 6 should once again include PSG, Olympique Marseille, Rennes, Lyon, Monaco and Lens that can be in the top six with Lille perhaps seventh. Our prediction: PSG, Marseille, Rennes, Lyon, Monaco and Lens in the Top six   

Ligue 1 prediction - Odds on a Top Six Finish

• PSG - 1.001
• Marseille - 1.18
• Monaco - 1.2
• Lille - 1.36
• Rennes - 1.66
• Nice - 2.00
• Lens - 2.50
• Lyon - 2.75
• Strasbourg - 3.25
• Toulouse - 4.00

Odds from Bet365.com

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Relegation prediction: which L1 clubs will be relegated?

At the bottom of the table, the battle to stay up is also likely to be fierce in Ligue 1 this season. As a reminder, the clubs ranked 17th and 18th at the end of the French championship will be relegated to Ligue 2 for the 2024-2025 season, and the club ranked 16th will play a play-off against a club from Ligue 2 in order to stay up. A number of clubs are involved in this quest to avoid the last three places, and we can imagine the following predictions: Metz, Brest and Le Havre among the bottom three.

Ligue 1 prediction - relegation odds

• Le Havre - 1.91
• Clermont - 2.20
• Metz - 2.25
• Brest - 3.75
• Nantes - 3.75
• Montpellier - 4.33
• Lorient - 4.50
• Reims - 13.00

Odds from bet365.com 

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Make a Ligue 1 2023-2024 prediction on the Ligue 1 top scorer

There is one particularly hotly contested individual title in Ligue 1: top scorer. So which striker can become the French league's top scorer in 2023-2024? The top scorer in Ligue 1 over the last five seasons  has been Kylian Mbappé. He's still at PSG (though Neymar has left) but it looks like being his last season there. It's hard to back against him not being the top scorer again this season. 

Ligue 1 prediction - odds for the top scorer 

• Kylian Mbappe  (PSG) - 1.50
• Matias Goncalo Ramos (PSG) - 9.00
• Wissam Ben Yadder (Monaco) - 9.00
• Randal Muani (PSG) - 9.00
• Jonathan David (Lille) - 10.00
• Folarin Balogun (Monaco) - 17.00
• Marco Asensio (PSG) - 21.00
• Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon) - 34.00
• Terem Moffi (Nice) - 34.00

Odds from  bet365.com   

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Information for inexperienced gamblers - how do you bet on Ligue 1?

Ligue 1 is France's premier league football championship. This elite competition pits France's top 18 teams against each other, with each side playing the others home and away. Between August and December, all the clubs play each other once, and the operation is repeated between January and May. So each team plays a total of  34 games..

At the end of the championship, several places have an impact on the future of the clubs: 

• The club ranked first is French champion and qualifies for the Champions League.
• The clubs ranked 2nd and 3rd qualify for the Champions League group stages
• The club placed 4th qualifies for the Champions League qualifiers
• The club in 5th position qualifies for the Europa League
• The club finishing sixth goes into the Europa Conference League
• If the side winning the French Cup finishes in the top five, then sixth goes into the Europa League and seventh into the Conference League.
• The 16th-placed club goes into a relegation play-off.
• Clubs in 17th and 18th place are relegated to Ligue 2.

There are therefore several bets to place in the French football championship, which explains why the Ligue 1 prediction is the most popular among French punters at the best online bookmakers every week.

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How to make good predictions on Ligue 1 matches?

Making a winning prediction on Ligue 1 requires knowledge of the league, but also good betting practice. SportyTrader has been a Ligue 1 specialist for a number of years and has some key tips on how to make the right predictions: 

• Look at the current form of the Ligue 1 teams
• Take into account the form of the Ligue 1's star players
• Know the team news for Ligue 1
• Take stock of the importance of the event in Ligue 1
• Analyse the latest French league stats

These 5 tips for predicting Ligue 1 matches are the most important according to the editors, although they are not the only ones. We've broken them down for you below.

Look at the current form of the Ligue 1 teams

The first thing you need to do to make a reliable Ligue 1 prediction is to check the latest results of the two clubs for your football prediction. A club like PSG are playing Lens, but haven't won in 3 weeks, while Lens are unbeaten in 15 games? Despite PSG's status as favourites, a reliable prediction could be to play the double chance of a draw or Lens. An in-form club will always be preferable for your Ligue 1 bets.

On this point, we would like to stress the importance of looking not only at the latest scores, but also at the performances achieved. Possession, Expected Goals (xG), number of shots conceded, shots on target, fouls committed or suffered, etc. will always be important. Don't forget that a team can go down to an unexplained defeat, in an opposition in which they were mostly unlucky.

Take into account the form of Ligue 1's star players

Just as you need to take into account the collective form of the clubs for your Ligue 1 predictions, you also need to focus on the individual form of each team's star players. Imagine, for example, that a club's top scorer hasn't scored in 10 games, or that the usually brilliant goalkeeper has made two notable blunders: their poor form will then have to be taken into account when predicting the scenario for the match in question.

Never forget that a Ligue 1 team can often be dependent on one or two players in terms of performance, and that when these men are not performing well, results are not always forthcoming. Case in point: Rennes were without Martin Terrier and Benjamin Bourigeaud last term.

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Know the team news for Ligue 1

Following on from the previous tip, we urge you to take a look at the list of players who will be absent this weekend in Ligue 1. Whether we're talking about injury, suspension or even being sidelined by a coach, important players may be missing and their absences could have a major impact on their teams' results.

Is the club captain suspended? Can't line up in the usual central huddle because a defender is injured? Has the top scorer been sidelined for misconduct in training? Be wary and don't bet too much money at the bookmakers with your Ligue 1 prediction. Unfortunately, you could be in for a nasty surprise.

Take stock of the importance of the Ligue 1 Uber Eats event

Another good Ligue 1 prediction reflex is to look at the psychological and mental environment of the match you want to bet on. A number of factors need to be taken into account here: rivalry between clubs, statements in the media before kick-off, tense final encounter, major stakes in the match... anything that can have a mental impact on the teams should not be overlooked.

If you are a fan of Over 2.5 predictions in Ligue 1, for example (more than 2.5 goals in total), be wary of duels where the pressure is high (relegation at the end of the season, derby), which are less likely to be prolific in terms of goals. If a team is still on a 6-game losing streak against their opponents, you should also avoid banking on their success, as they will no doubt have an inferiority complex. There are many possible scenarios, and it's up to you to analyse them carefully (our expert tipsters take them into account in their predictions for this weekend's Ligue 1 matches).

Analyse the latest French Championship stats

Finally, as a fifth piece of advice, systematically analyse the statistics of each club in Ligue 1. Knowing the different stats will help you make better predictions for the matches, and bet like an expert on alternative bets (number of goals, exact score, result, half-time with the most goals, etc.). 

Has a team scored more than 2.5 goals in 80% of its Ligue 1 matches since the start of the season? You can give it a try in this weekend's match. This is just one of the many examples you can find by reading the statistics. Don't hesitate to take advantage of a bookmaker's bonus to try your luck.

To finish with these main tips, you should know that our team of writers systematically takes them into account for each Ligue 1 prediction this season, as well as around ten other algorithmic parameters.

By simply consulting our Ligue 1 result predictions, you can be sure of getting the most reliable overall view possible of the various matchdays. Get into the habit of reading our predictions before each Ligue 1 weekend.

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What not to do for your Ligue 1 predictions

If you want to make a success of your Ligue 1 predictions, there are a few things you should avoid doing. Here's what we strongly advise against when making a Ligue 1 prediction: 

• Not analysing the Ligue 1 match
• Only take a club's prestige into account
• Bet on the lowest odds for no reason
• Betting on a Ligue 1 match with nothing at stake at the end of the season
• Wanting to make up for losing a Ligue 1 bet
• Betting on bookmakers' boosted odds without any analysis
• Betting on your favourite team on a regular basis

Every week, many beginners and experienced punters alike get caught out and lose money too easily by adopting one of these behaviours. So make sure you don't get it wrong again this season on Ligue 1.

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Ligue 1 statistics you need to know for your predictions

Getting the most out of your Ligue 1 bets also means knowing the key statistics for the French league. Here are the percentage figures to remember for your Ligue 1 predictions, taken from the most recent edition of the competition: 

• Home wins: 43
• Draws: 24
• Away wins: 33
• Average goals: 2.81 goals per game
• +1.5 goals : 78
• -1.5 goals : 22
• +2.5 goals : 56
• -2.5 goals : 44
• +3.5 goals : 29
• -3.5 goals : 71
• "Both teams score: yes": 58%.
• Away goal : 75% of matches
• Victory by 2 goals or more (handicap): 36% of matches
• Exact score 0-0: 7% of matches
• Most frequent score: 2-1 (20% of games)

For your Ligue 1 sports bets, give preference to "More than 2.5 goals", "Both teams score: yes", or "Team 2 goal" bets. If the odds are good, the N2 double chance could also win you a few euros. Although nothing is guaranteed in advance, of course.

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In short: how to make the right predictions for Ligue 1 matches?

To make reliable and winning predictions on Ligue 1 football, you need to do a number of things: analyse the matches, take into account the best practices mentioned on this page, know how the league works and the most important statistics.

If you don't have the time to study each Ligue 1 match in depth, you can simply consult the predictions of our L1 specialists, available every week at the top of this page. Free, open access and 100% manual and verified (no 100% automatic and robotic analysis!), they will help you make the right bet this season on the French Championship.

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Our current Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1: Best Odds

Are you particularly interested in French clubs? Take a look at our Ligue 2 prediction to guess who will be promoted to Ligue 1, and our Champions League prediction to follow the progress of the French teams. 

If you want to stay focused on the French Championship, our Ligue 1 odds comparator is also available free of charge, as is our  Ligue 1 Livescore . Everything you need to enjoy your favorite competition.