Liga NOS Betting Tips
Find our free predictions for betting on the Portuguese Primeira Liga 2020/21 as well as tips and forecasts for each upcoming matchday. Full information for your sports bets.
Portuguese Primeira Liga
The Primeira Liga (known for sponsorship reasons as the Liga NOS) is the top division in Portuguese football. It is comprised of 18 clubs who face eacn other home and away over the season with 34 games played in total. The champions qualify for the group stages of the Champions League, while the runners-up go into the play-off round of that competition. The side finishing third qualifies for the Europa League group stages, with the fourth and fifth sides going into the qualifying rounds. The bottom two in the league are relegated, though as you will read, that wasn't the case last season. Will Porto retain their league title this season or will Benfica, Braga or Sporting Lisbon take it from them? There’s a lot to play for, which makes Liga NOS particularly interesting for lovers of sports betting. The new season kicks off on 20 September, so look out for our betting tips.
Liga NOS Statistical Analysis
Last season saw a total of 763 goals scored in the 306 matches that took place, an average of 2.49 goals a game. That's down from an average of 2.7 in the previous season. Other leagues in Europe have a higher average per game and last season, only five teams managed to score more than 50 goals in their 34 league fixtures. There was a drop in the number of home league goals being scored, down from 1.52 down to 1.37. In terms of away goals, there was a small drop from 1.18 to 1.15.
Only one team had an average of over at least three goals in their 2019/20 league games. You might expect it to be either Porto or Benfica, but it was in fact Famalicao who had an average of 3.06 goals per match. They scored 53 goals but conceded 51. Boavista were bottom of the average goals chart with just 1.97 per game last season but they still finished 12th.
In the 1X2 market, 41% of games last season ended in a win for the home team (down from 47% in the previous season). 26% of games ended in a draw (up from 20% in the 2018/19 season) with 33% of games being won by the away side (the same as in the previous season). This trend could provide some inspiration for for your bets on Portuguese football, especially since the odds proposed by the bookmakers are generally quite favourable.
When it comes to the under/over 2.5 goals per game stat, 44% of matches played last season had over 2.5 goals scored in them (5% less than the season before). Famalicao had the highest percentage of games with over 2.5 goals with that stat coming up in 62% of their matches.
Both teams to score is a popular bet and the teams to back and get winners last season were Famalicao and Moreirense. 65% of their league matches saw both teams get on the scoresheet. When it comes to keeping clean sheets, Porto managed to do that in 56% of their games and 50% for Benfica. Of the sides that avoided relegation last season, Pacos Ferreria need to improve here as they only kept clean sheets in 18% of their league matches.
Finally, the last major trend to consider before betting is the large volume of meetings that end with a 1-1 scoreline. That was the most popular final score in last season's Primeira League matches. That score came up in 40 games last season, just ahead of a 1-0 away win. In total, 69 games ended with just one goal being scored in the match. As for the half-time score, 97 matches failed to see a goal in the first half and 207 failed to have two goals scored in the first half, that's 68% of matches.
55% of goals scored last season came in the second half of matches. If you are looking to bet on a team to score an early goal, Porto and Braga are the teams to go for with Porto scoring 14 goals in the first 15 minutes of league games and Brava 10. Benfica only scored 27 first half goals last season but hit 44 in the second half..
How to predict Liga Nos matches
Now that we’ve taken a look at the key statistics, let's look at some of the other factors to include in your Primeira Liga predictions. First of all, it will be crucial to analyse the form of the best player on each team concerned in the match of your choice. To show a more concrete example, if you want to bet on a match between Porto and Benfica, but Moussa Marega is suspended, then the odds offered on a Benfica win will likely be higher than they would be if the Malian was available for selection. The same reasoning applies to any Liga NOS team, particularly when it comes to mid-table teams.
It will then be necessary to analyse the stake that the match holds for each team involved. For example, a bet on the ‘Over 2.5’ goals market is much less likely to be a winner in a match between two sites fighting against relegation than in a top of the table clash. Before betting on the Primeira Liga, it will be important to consider the league table - it will help you to determine a team’s motivation for an upcoming match by considering how a win will benefit them.
The final point that you should remember before making your Liga NOS predictions is to always compare the bookmakers odds before placing your bets. As we are sure you are aware, the many bookmakers on the online betting market can offer different odds for the same bet on a Liga NOS match. Whether you want to back Porto, Benfica, Sporting Portugal, Braga or Rio Ave, you will find variations in the odds values offered on each bet which can boost your earnings in the long term. To demonstrate, using the example of a Portimonense-Maritimo match, Bet365 could offer odds of 12/5 on a draw, as opposed to 3/1 offered by William Hill. This may seem like only a small difference, but could add up to hundreds of pounds over the course of a season - believe our specialists in this!
Portuguese Liga Nos table?
In addition to betting on each game of the Primeira Liga, you can also predict the final table for the 2020/21 season. Beyond offering an exciting long-term gaming experience, a outright bet on Liga NOS can allow you to accumulate significant winnings at the end of the season. Some of types of bets you can place include predicting the overall league winner, which teams will finish in the top four, or even which teams will be relegated at the end of the season.
To ensure reliable predictions on this Liga NOS market, there are certain important aspects that you will need to take into account, including the real motivation of each club, the fixture calendar and the depth of each Primeira Liga squad. It will be important to know which sides have a good quality subs bench, as it could be crucial to their long-term performance!
2020/21 Portuguese Primeira Liga: our free betting tips
Porto won the Primeira League in the 2019/20 season, finishing five points clear of Benfica. They made the most of a dramatic collapse by early season leaders Benfica. They only managed to earn 23 points from their last 15 league games. Third were Braga with Sporting Lisbon in fourth. Both teams finished on 60 points, 17 behind the top two. Not since 2002 has any side apart from Benfica or Porto won the title. That doesn't look changing this season.
Relegation was a bit complex last season. Aves had a terrible season and finished bottom of the league earning just 17 points, 16 behind the next side. Portimonense finished 17th and would normally have been relegated. However, it's 16th placed Vitoria Setubal who went down due to licensing problems. Promoted to the top flight for this new season were Nacional and Farense, who were in first and second positions when the Liga Pro was ended due to the coronavirus pandemic. An exciting season lies ahead and our team of betting experts will provide you with plenty of tips and hopefully, lots of winners.