NPFL Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free predictions and key information on the 2023/24 season of the Nigeria Premier Football League. Our experts will provide previews on the biggest matches from Nigeria's top flight throughout the season. Be sure to check back in regularly for the latest NPFL information!

Nigeria Premier Football League Presentation and Prediction

Founded in 1972, the Nigeria Premier Football League (NPFL) has a rich history that has produced a number of the country’s most famous names. Kanu, Jay Jay Okocha, John Obi Mikel, Vincent Enyeama and many more got their start in the NPFL, making it a great league to spot rising talents.

Despite having produced a number of football’s most recognizable players, the NPFL is a league which faces financial constraints and infrastructural issues. This is evidenced by the various recent postponements of the start of the 2023/24 season. Fans will have to wait to find out the official start date to see their favorite teams in action. However, an announcement is expected to be made in the coming days.

Rest assured, as soon as the season schedule is confirmed we’ll be sure to update this page. You can also expect free previews of the top matches in the league from our experts throughout the season. Continue reading below for a breakdown of the Nigeria Premier Football League as well as some predictions and key statistics.

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Nigeria Premier Football League Title Prediction: Which Team Will Win the 2023/24 NPFL?

The defending NPFL champions are Enyimba FC, who won their ninth title in the 2022/23 campaign. They’ll be out to make history in the coming season as a successful title defense would mark them as the first Nigerian team to win 10 league titles. Enyimba have been the standard in recent seasons for Nigerian football. Their nine league titles puts them two above second-place Rangers International who have claimed seven league championships.

We like Enyimba to defend their crown and capture another Nigeria Premier Football League title in the 2023/24 season. They've been able to carry over their momentum from last season and currently find themselves sitting in second-place with 10 games left to play in the campaign. Enyimba find themselves just three points behind Rangers International and still have a fixture against the current leaders in matchday 35, meaning there are still ample opportunities to make up the points. With their experience from last year's and 2019's title-winning seasons, Enyimba should have what it takes to hold firm when the pressure ramps up in the coming weeks. Rangers International, meanwhile, haven't won the title since 2016 so it's hard to predict how their players will stand up to these high-stakes matches as we head into the business end of the season. Led by the division's top current goalscorer in Mbaoma Chijoke, we like Enyimba to have enough firepower to successfully defend their crown. Our Nigeria NPFL winner prediction: Enyimba FC!

Nigeria Premier League - Odds to win the title

With the start of the new season having already suffered two postponements, the oddsmakers are clearly waiting to publish their league winner odds. In the meantime, you can head over to bet365 to see the other available NPFL betting markets.

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Relegation Prediction: Which Nigeria Premier League Club Will Go Down?

The bottom four teams at the end of every season suffer to the Nigeria National League (NNL). The 2022/23 season saw Nasarawa United, El-Kanemi Warriors, Wikki Tourists and Dakkada drop down to the second-tier in Nigerian football.

So, who is likely to be fighting against relegation this time around? Somewhat surprisedly, only one of the four promoted teams from last season (Heartland, Sporting Lagos, Kano Pillars and Katsina United) currently occupies a bottom-four relegation spot, that being Heartland who sit 19th. One of our main picks to face the drop earlier was Gombe United who have experienced a difficult season and are currently dead-last in the standings. With a double-digit points gap to overcome and only 10 matches remaining on the docket, their survival chances are looking bleak. The same can be said for Heartland, who are only one point better off than Gombe and are likely to suffer an immediate return to the second division.

Aside from those two, the next two spots are certainly closer calls. Rivers United and Akwa are the two teams currently in 18th and 17th and are even on points. However, they trail 16th-place Kwara by just one point and 15th-placed Bayelsa by three points. Rivers United have a solid defense (22 goals conceded) which should ultimately provide them with enough points over the next 10 matches to stay up. Therefore, Kwara United and Akwa United are our predictions for the other two relegation teams to go along with Gombe and Heartland! 

Nigeria Premier League - Odds to be relegated

Similar to the league title odds, the bookmakers have yet to post the relegation odds. Again, this is likely due to the postponement of the season with the start date still up in the air. Be sure to check out Vbet for other available Nigeria Premier Football League markets in the meantime.

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Nigeria Premier League Top Scorer Prediction: Who Will Score the Most Goals?

The top scorer in the previous season was Enyimba's Chukwuemeka Obioma who ended the campaign with 15 goals in just 16 games. Unfortunately for the People’s Elephant, Obioma capitalized on his successful season by securing a move to Renaissance Zemamra in the Moroccan league.

The player to watch this season has been the defending champion's Chijoke Mbaoma who is currently leading the division's score charts with 13 goals in 28 matches played for his side. We like the experienced 34-year-old to lock up the golden boot in the final stretch of the regular season. He should have plenty of chances to increase his tally further with his team Enyimba likely the most talented squad in the league.

Prediction Nigeria Premier League - Odds for the top goalscorer

As with the previous sections, the top goalscorer odds have yet to be released by the bookmakers. However, you can see what other betting markets are available by taking a visit to Unibet in the meantime.

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Beginner’s Guide to How the Nigeria Premier League Works

The 2022/23 NPFL season saw a unique situation as the league season was shortened to accommodate the new schedule of the 2023/24 season. The Nigerian Football Federation wanted the league season to coincide with the other major European leagues and thus adopt a starting time near the end of August / beginning of September. Thus, last year saw the league split into two groups and concluded with the top six teams competing in the playoffs.

The 2023/24 season sees a return to the traditional league structure with 20 teams competing in 38 total fixtures, playing each team home and away.

• The team that finishes top of the table after 38 matches is crowned champion and qualifies for the CAF Champions League.
• The second-place finishing team also qualifies for the CAF Champions League.
• The teams that finish third and fourth qualify for the CAF Confederations Cup.
• The bottom four finishing teams are relegated to the Nigeria National League.

The upcoming 53rd season of the Nigeria Premier Football League promises to be an action-packed affair. Perfect for bettors and fans alike!

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How to Make Good Predictions on Nigeria Premier Football League Matches?

In order to make informed and accurate predictions on the NPFL, there are a few strategies that you may want to incorporate into your betting process. 

• Use underlying statistics to better analyze team performance 
• Match motivation and the team’s fixture list
• Take into account player injuries and suspensions
• Consider the form of the teams
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Below you’ll learn about the betting techniques used by our experts and exactly how to implement them for use in Nigeria’s top flight.

1. Use underlying statistics to better analyze team performance

Teams in the Nigerian Premier League often favor a defense-first, pragmatic style of play. This is displayed in the extremely low average goals total which is at times even a full goal lower than some of the major European leagues. It’s important to be aware of the statistics at play when analyzing matches in this league. You may see enticing odds for an over 2.5 bet but it won't make much sense in betting it if the two teams involved are the two best defenses in the league.

There are a number of useful stats that will help you to gauge which way a match might go. The NPFL is a league that sees home sides enjoy a distinct advantage, one that is much more pronounced than other leagues. Take note of a team’s average shots total, goal conversion rate, opponent penalty box touches and clean sheet percentage. Note how these statistics differ when the team is home vs away. You’ll find that there might be teams that perform better away from home than other teams, or teams that see drastically improved numbers on home soil. Use this information in your bets and you’re bound to see an improvement to your bottom line! 

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2. Match motivation and the team’s fixture list

Matches at the end of the season vs beginning of the season. Some teams may be out of contention without much left to play for in the final few fixtures of the league campaign. Meanwhile, other teams could be battling against relegation, for the league title or for continental competition qualification. These factors can have a significant impact on the match as a highly-motivated team is more likely to come up with a strong performance rather than a team that is already looking forward to the offseason.

A team’s fixture list also must be factored into the equation when you are analyzing matches. Is the team on short rest? Do they have a big CAF Champions League match coming up in a few days time? Are they coming off a heated rivalry match in their last appearance? These types of situational spots often have an effect on team performance. A manager might opt to rotate his squad and rest key players in anticipation for a big CAF Champions League match. Thus, going against that team could provide a profitable betting opportunity with a weakened starting 11.

3. Account for player injuries and suspensions

Staying up-to-date on the player squads is a huge part of what makes a successful football bettor. You never want to find yourself in a position where you analyze a match and place a bet only to find out that your team is missing its star player. No matter the league, football is a sport that can have matches decided by the individual brilliance of a team’s key player.

A good way to always stay on top of the latest team news is by following the team’s social media platforms. Teams will often post starting lineups, match reviews and player / injury news on platforms such as X / Twitter. The best part about this is that it is free to follow so be sure to do your due diligence. 

4. Consider the form of the teams

Of course, considering the form of the teams in question is always going to play a major part in the analysis of a bet. Football, and sports in general, often sees players and teams go through peaks and valleys. Teams can very often get in a rhythm wherein winning breeds confidence, which in turn leads to a higher standard of performance and thus more successful results on the pitch. 

Conversely, teams can also go through cold streaks where nothing seems to go right. They may get a few unlucky bounces of the ball and thus suffer a few losses in a row. Losing can often have a negative impact on a player or team’s confidence which in turn could lead to a below-average quality of performance. Be sure to pay attention to how teams are performing at different points throughout the season.

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5. Compare odds across bookmakers

Last but certainly not least, you will want to make it a priority to compare odds across different bookmakers. It’s such a simple exercise but one that can arguably have the greatest effect on your overall profitability come the end of the season. For example: Say you are backing Enyimba at home to beat Remo Stars. You find a price of 1.75 for the hosts to win the match on one bookmaker. Before locking the bet in, you compare the same prediction across multiple bookmakers and find another site carrying the bet at odds of 1.85.

Although it may seem small at first glance, consistently finding those types of price differences will pay dividends at the end of the year. If you made the same bet 100 times with a stake of €10, the difference between 1.75 odds (€750 profit) and odds of 1.85 (€850 profit) is a massive €100! Extrapolate that same type of thinking across every bet that you make for an entire season and you can begin to see why shopping for the best price is such a profitable strategy.

What Not to Do for Your Nigeria Premier League Predictions

Just as there are some useful betting strategies and techniques to implement, there are also some habits you will want to avoid:

• Chasing losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Blindly betting on your favorite team
• Regularly betting on heavily favored teams (odds of 1.25 or lower)
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (betting random or more than a fixed amount on each bet)
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
• Not taking into account underlying statistics

If you can eliminate these bad practices from your betting process, you’ll be well on your way to becoming a more profitable punter!

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Nigeria Premier League Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

In this section we’ll take a look at some of the key statistics that we’ve compiled that you can apply to your future NPFL predictions. All of these statistics are from the completed 2022/23 season:

• Home win percentage: 52%
• Draw percentage: 32%
• Away win percentage: 15%
• Average goals per game: 2.07
• Matches with over 1.5 goals: 67%
• Matches with over 2.5 goals: 34%
• Matches with over 3.5 goals: 11%
• Both teams to score: 44% of matches
• Average home goals: 1.36 per match
• Average away goals: 0.71 per match
• Most common scoreline: 1-0 (19.5%)
• Second most common: 1-1 (18.5%)
• Third and fourth: 2-0, 2-1 (both 11.3%)
• Half-time most common score: 1-0 (31.3%)
• Half-time second most common: 0-0 (30.7%)

As you can see from the statistics above, the Nigeria Premier Football League is one that generally sees lower scoring games. Therefore, backing under 2.5 goals or “Both teams to score: No” should always be considerations when making your predictions. You’ll also want to be extremely wary in backing any away teams to win as the 15% winning percentage is well below the average for most leagues.

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In Short: How to Make the Right Nigeria Premier Football League Predictions?

When making your predictions for matches in the NPFL be sure to follow the advice laid out in this article. Reference back to the important statistics and key betting strategies in order to get an edge over the bookmakers! 

If you find that you’re short on time or would simply like to see a different perspective, head over to our predictions page to see what our experts think about the matches. Remember, we provide free betting tips and insight onto games throughout the season at SportyTrader!

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Our Nigeria Premier League (NPFL) Predictions of the moment

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Best odds to bet on NPFL

26 Apr 2024 - 11:00 Remo Stars - Niger Tornadoes

1 1.34

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2 10