Nigeria NPFL Predictions & Betting tips
Find our free predictions and key information on the 2024-25 season of the Nigeria Premier Football League. Our experts will provide previews on the biggest matches from Nigeria's top flight throughout the season. Be sure to check back in regularly for the latest NPFL information!
Nigeria Premier Football League Presentation and Prediction
Founded in 1972, the Nigeria Premier Football League (NPFL) has a rich history that has produced a number of the country’s most famous names. Kanu, Jay Jay Okocha, John Obi Mikel, Vincent Enyeama and many more got their start in the NPFL, making it a great league to spot rising talents.
Despite having produced a number of football’s most recognizable players, the NPFL is a league which faces financial constraints and infrastructural issues. This was evidenced last year by the various postponements to the start of the 2023-24 season, and it's starting to show itself already this year with the full schedule yet to be released despite the season kicking off soon. Currently, only the first round of fixtures are known, which begin with defending champions Enugu Rangers taking on El-Kanemi Warriors.
Rest assured, as soon as the full season schedule is confirmed we’ll be sure to update this page. You can also expect free previews of the top matches in the league from our experts throughout the season. Continue reading below for a breakdown of the Nigeria Premier Football League as well as some predictions and key statistics.
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Nigeria Premier Football League Title Prediction: Which Team Will Win the 2024-25 NPFL?
Following a disappointing third-place finish in the 2023-24 season, Enyimba should have plenty of motivation to bounce back strongly and return to the summit of the NPFL. Enugu Rangers were crowned champions in the previous campaign, marking their first league title since 2016. The win brought Rangers to a total of eight league championships, putting them second in the all-time rankings and one behind leaders Enyimba.
Indeed, the “People’s Elephant” has been the standard of Nigerian football since the turn of the millennia with all nine of their league titles coming after the year 2000. Enyimba are also the only Nigerian team to win the CAF Champions League, which they accomplished on two occasions.
We foresee a return to form for African giants Enyimba in the 2024-25 season. Our NPFL prediction: Enyimba champions 2024-25!
Nigeria Premier League Top Scorer Prediction: Who Will Score the Most Goals?
After finishing second in the top scorer charts last season, Remo Stars FC striker Alimi Sikiru could be well positioned to take the crown in the 2024/25 campaign. The 28-year-old scored 15 goals in 33 games last year, just two behind the eventual winner Chijoke Mbaoma. However, with Mbaoma's move to Libyan club Al-Ittihad, Sikiru's biggest threat has left the league.
With Remo Stars off to a hot start, winning five of their first six and scoring a league-high 10 goals, Sikiru should have plenty of goal scoring opportunities. Our 2024-25 NPFL top goalscorer prediction: Remo Stars' Alimi Sikiru!
Beginner’s Guide to How the Nigeria Premier League Works
The NPFL is the highest league in Nigerian football. The 20 best teams in the country battle it out using a traditional home and away league structure, meaning that they will play every team in the division twice throughout the year. There are 38 fixtures that make up the complete campaign for each team, producing a total of 380 matches throughout the season. Currently, only the first round of fixtures have been released, with the season set to kick off on 31 August 2024.
- The team that finishes top of the table after 38 matches is crowned champion and qualifies for the CAF Champions League.
- The second-place finishing team also qualifies for the CAF Champions League.
- The teams that finish third and fourth qualify for the CAF Confederations Cup.
- The bottom four finishing teams are relegated to the Nigeria National League.
The upcoming 54th season of the Nigeria Premier Football League promises to be an action-packed affair. Perfect for bettors and fans alike!
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How to Make Good Predictions on Nigeria Premier Football League Matches?
In order to make informed and accurate predictions on the NPFL, there are a few strategies that you may want to incorporate into your betting process.
- Use underlying statistics to better analyze team performance
- Match motivation and the team’s fixture list
- Take into account player injuries and suspensions
- Consider the form of the teams
- Compare odds across bookmakers
Below you’ll learn about the betting techniques used by our experts and exactly how to implement them for use in Nigeria’s top flight.
1. Use underlying statistics to better analyze team performance
Teams in the Nigerian Premier League often favor a defense-first, pragmatic style of play. This is displayed in the extremely low average goals total which is at times even a full goal lower than some of the major European leagues. It’s important to be aware of the statistics at play when analyzing matches in this league. You may see enticing odds for an over 2.5 bet but it won't make much sense in betting it if the two teams involved are the two best defenses in the league.
There are a number of useful stats that will help you to gauge which way a match might go. The NPFL is a league that sees home sides enjoy a distinct advantage, one that is much more pronounced than other leagues. Take note of a team’s average shots total, goal conversion rate, opponent penalty box touches and clean sheet percentage. Note how these statistics differ when the team is home vs away. You’ll find that there might be teams that perform better away from home than other teams, or teams that see drastically improved numbers on home soil. Use this information in your bets and you’re bound to see an improvement to your bottom line!
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2. Match motivation and the team’s fixture list
Matches at the end of the season vs beginning of the season. Some teams may be out of contention without much left to play for in the final few fixtures of the league campaign. Meanwhile, other teams could be battling against relegation, for the league title or for continental competition qualification. These factors can have a significant impact on the match as a highly-motivated team is more likely to come up with a strong performance rather than a team that is already looking forward to the offseason.
A team’s fixture list also must be factored into the equation when you are analyzing matches. Is the team on short rest? Do they have a big CAF Champions League match coming up in a few days time? Are they coming off a heated rivalry match in their last appearance? These types of situational spots often have an effect on team performance. A manager might opt to rotate his squad and rest key players in anticipation for a big CAF Champions League match. Thus, going against that team could provide a profitable betting opportunity with a weakened starting 11.
3. Account for player injuries and suspensions
Staying up-to-date on the player squads is a huge part of what makes a successful football bettor. You never want to find yourself in a position where you analyze a match and place a bet only to find out that your team is missing its star player. No matter the league, football is a sport that can have matches decided by the individual brilliance of a team’s key player.
A good way to always stay on top of the latest team news is by following the team’s social media platforms. Teams will often post starting lineups, match reviews and player / injury news on platforms such as X / Twitter. The best part about this is that it is free to follow so be sure to do your due diligence.
4. Consider the form of the teams
Of course, considering the form of the teams in question is always going to play a major part in the analysis of a bet. Football, and sports in general, often sees players and teams go through peaks and valleys. Teams can very often get in a rhythm wherein winning breeds confidence, which in turn leads to a higher standard of performance and thus more successful results on the pitch.
Conversely, teams can also go through cold streaks where nothing seems to go right. They may get a few unlucky bounces of the ball and thus suffer a few losses in a row. Losing can often have a negative impact on a player or team’s confidence which in turn could lead to a below-average quality of performance. Be sure to pay attention to how teams are performing at different points throughout the season.
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5. Compare odds across bookmakers
Last but certainly not least, you will want to make it a priority to compare odds across different bookmakers. It’s such a simple exercise but one that can arguably have the greatest effect on your overall profitability come the end of the season. For example: Say you are backing Enyimba at home to beat Remo Stars. You find a price of 1.75 for the hosts to win the match on one bookmaker. Before locking the bet in, you compare the same prediction across multiple bookmakers and find another site carrying the bet at odds of 1.85.
Although it may seem small at first glance, consistently finding those types of price differences will pay dividends at the end of the year. If you made the same bet 100 times with a stake of €10, the difference between 1.75 odds (€750 profit) and odds of 1.85 (€850 profit) is a massive €100! Extrapolate that same type of thinking across every bet that you make for an entire season and you can begin to see why shopping for the best price is such a profitable strategy.
What Not to Do for Your Nigeria Premier League Predictions
Just as there are some useful betting strategies and techniques to implement, there are also some habits you will want to avoid:
- Chasing losses (e.g. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
- Blindly betting on your favorite team
- Regularly betting on heavily favored teams (odds of 1.25 or lower)
- Not practicing proper bankroll management (betting random or more than a fixed amount on each bet)
- Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
- Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
- Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
- Not taking into account underlying statistics
If you can eliminate these bad practices from your betting process, you’ll be well on your way to becoming a more profitable punter!
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Nigeria Premier League Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know
In this section we’ll take a look at some of the key statistics that we’ve compiled that you can apply to your future NPFL predictions. All of these statistics are from the previously completed 2023-24 season:
- Home win percentage: 69%
- Draw percentage: 23%
- Away win percentage: 8%
- Average goals per game: 2.24
- Matches with over 1.5 goals: 63%
- Matches with over 2.5 goals: 37%
- Matches with over 3.5 goals: 20%
- Both teams to score: 42% of matches
- Matches with at least one clean sheet: 67%
- Average home goals: 1.61 per match
- Average away goals: 0.63 per match
- Most common scoreline: 1-0 (25.1%)
- Second most common: 2-0 (14%)
- Half-time most common score: 0-0 (32.3%)
- Half-time second most common: 1-0 (31.8%)
As you can see from the statistics above, the Nigeria Premier Football League is one that generally sees lower scoring games. Therefore, backing under 2.5 goals or “Both teams to score: No” should always be considerations when making your predictions. The NPFL has historically been a league that sees away teams have very little success. With just 8% of matches last season resulting in an away victory, you'll want to steer clear of backing the visitors in the majority of cases.
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In Short: How to Make the Right Nigeria Premier Football League Predictions?
When making your predictions for matches in the 2024-25 NPFL be sure to follow the advice laid out in this article. Reference back to the important statistics and key betting strategies in order to get an edge over the bookmakers!
If you find that you’re short on time or would simply like to see a different perspective, head over to our football predictions page to see what our experts think about the matches. Remember, we provide free betting tips and insight onto games throughout the season at SportyTrader!
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