EFL League One Predictions & Betting tips

Check out our free prediction on the 2025-26 EFL League One winner, including the latest odds relating to the race for promotion, the Golden Boot winner and potential relegation candidates. All the information for your sports betting can be found below.

EFL League One 2025-26 Presentation and Predictions

The English Football League One, also referred to as the Sky Bet League One, or simply League One within the UK, is the second level of the English Football League (EFL) pyramid and the third tier in terms of the overall structure of England’s football league system. England’s football pyramid is among the most expansive globally, encompassing even the further reaches of the country.

The EFL system, founded by the father of modern-day football William McGregor, drives the professional tiers, with the Premier League standing separately at the very top. With the financial resources, and therefore calibre of players available to clubs in League One being much more even than in the Premier League, upset results and favourable betting odds on ‘underdogs’ are much more common, making it a potentially profitable betting option with a little bit of guidance if you’re not an avid lower-league follower. 

Below you will find some of our experts’ insights and tips.

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Leagune One title prediction: Who will win the 2025-26 League One?

A 2-0 home win over Doncaster on 21 April confirmed Lincoln City as League One champions and put the bow on what was a stunning overall campaign. Lincoln City would finish the season on 103 points and secured a spot in the Championship for the first time in 65 years.

It's been a remarkable rise for the Imps, who have gone from the National League to England's second tier in less than a decade. Their success was built on a rock-solid defensive foundation, which conceded only 41 goals in 46 league matches. Goalscoring was a team effort for Lincoln City who saw three players hit double-digit scoring numbers in the league. Be sure to keep an eye out for our 2026-27 League One prediction when next season rolls around!

Top goalscorer prediction in the 2025-26 EFL League One

It's been a strong season for Cardiff City's Youself Salech, who leads the goalscoring table as we approach the halfway point in the 2025-26 season. After transferring from Swedish club Sirius in the January 2025 transfer window, the powerful Danish striker is proving to be a cut above in England's third-tier competition.

Salech debuted in the Championship, where he had a very respectable eight goals scored in 20 appearances. Expectedly, he's improved his numbers in League One, where he's averaging 0.63 goals per 90. The Bluebirds are leading the league table and are also the highest scoring team in League One. With their impressive scoring rate, we can expect Salech to be on the end of many of their chances created and he should push on to have a strong second half of the campaign. Our 2025-26 League One top goalscorer prediction: Yousef Salech!

Who will be promoted from League One?

Just like in the Championship, three teams from League One will be promoted at the end of the season. The teams that finish first and second in the league standings will receive automatic promotion to the second tier, while the four teams that end third to sixth place will battle in the League One play-offs to earn the final coveted promotion berth. 

Stockport County made a valiant run at automatic promotion last season, coming up just short in third place. After winning League Two in 2023-24, the Hatters almost pulled off the elusive back-to-back promotions. Still, it was a season of great success and progress for Stockport, who posted their best league finish in over 20 years. While they don’t have the budget of the three Championship relegated teams, Stockport have made winning a habit over recent years, and this could be their year to secure a spot back in the Championship.

Joining Luton Town and Stockport could be Cardiff City, who have the type of quality in their squad to challenge for a promotion spot. There is also a lot of excitement around 23-year-old striker Yousef Salech, who has the potential to bag a heap of goals at this level.

Our prediction to be promoted in the 2025/26 League One season: Luton Town, Stockport County and Cardiff City!

2025-26 League One prediction - odds on the favourites for promotion

• Bolton - 2.75
• Stockport County - 3.00
• Bradford - 3.50
• Stevenage - 5.50

Odds taken from Bet365

Who will be relegated to League Two?

After winning the League Two promotion playoff following a fifth-place finish in England’s fourth tier, AFC Wimbledon have made the jump up to League One. However, it could be a difficult year for the Dons. Wimbledon has the smallest squad transfer value in the division at just €3.13 million and there are real questions as to whether or not they have the required quality to avoid the drop.

In a similar boat is Northampton, who finished 19th last year. There are serious question marks over whether or not the Cobblers have the firepower to score enough goals to keep them up this term.

Mansfield Town narrowly avoided the drop last season and it’s looking likely that they will struggle once again in the 2025-26 season. Lastly, Rotherham United will need to quickly reinforce their squad if they are to repeat their 13th-place finish from last year. At the moment, this team doesn’t look to have the depth nor quality to stay in the division over the course of the full season.

Our 2025-26 League One relegation prediction: AFC Wimbledon, Northampton, Mansfield and Rotherham United.

Beginners Guide to how the EFL League One works

Starting with the basics - A total of 24 teams compete in the EFL League One, the same number of teams that contest the Championship but four more than in the Premier League. Each team will play 23 home games and 23 away games over the course of the season, accumulating the normal three points for a win, one point for a draw and no points for a loss.

At the end of the campaign, the teams that finish first and second in the final league standings receive automatic promotion to the Championship, while the teams placed third through sixth enter the playoffs with the winner securing the final promotion berth. 

In terms of relegation, while three teams suffer the drop in the Premier League and Championship, in League One, the bottom four teams drop to the lower division.

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How to make good predictions on League One matches

Given the fairly evenly matched nature of the teams in League One, predicting outcomes can become a little tricky, especially if you’re making decisions blindly. Here are a few factors to consider in your League One betting decisions: 

• Utilize team form analysis
• Consider the fixture schedule
• Pay attention to team absences
• Factor in the match importance
• Analyze the latest League One statistics

While not foolproof, these tips will help you make better wager decisions if used correctly. Let’s break them down a little further.

Utilize team form analysis

Arguably the most obvious of strategies, analysing a team’s form will unpack a wealth of information that will be invaluable in your betting decisions. Pay attention to things like the team’s home vs away form and players who are performing well to identify potential market opportunities.

Consider the fixture schedule

With 24 teams competing in League One, along with FA Cup and EFL Cup commitments, matches can often come thick and fast, which can sometimes lead to a team playing two or even three games in a week. This is another crucial factor as a team playing too frequently may not be at the top of their powers, especially against a well-rested, fresher side.

Pay attention to team absences

Indeed, big players have a major impact on teams’ performances in League One, and the absence of a star player could spell bad news for a side in a specific match, as well as your wager if you fancy that team to win. Be sure to keep up to date with player injuries and suspensions wherever possible.

Factor in the match importance

While every match carries the same number of points on offer, some games are just more important than others, particularly late on in the season when teams are jostling for league positions, be it for a playoff spot or to avoid relegation. The importance of the match can easily influence the performance of a team in the contest.

Analyze the Latest League One statistics

Finally, with the plethora of information available, it would be a foolish decision not to make use of it, as statistics are a sure-fire way to give your betting decisions some sort of foundation. Stats can be used in a variety of ways to find solid betting opportunities, but be sure to use only reliable sources, such as those found right here on SportyTrader.

What not to do for your EFL League One predictions

When making predictions on the EFL League One, it is as important to follow certain practices as it is to avoid others. Below, we will provide you with the most common mistakes punters fall victim to, which often lead to losing bets. 

• Failing to analyze team form
• Allowing team bias to sway betting decisions
• Betting blindly without any information
• Chasing huge odds on underdogs
• Trying to recover losses from previous bets
• Neglecting team news and player absences
• Failing to compare odds from different bookies

While these may seem obvious at first glance, it’s truly astonishing how many bettors ignore one or more of these factors to their detriment. Avoid them at all costs!

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EFL League One predictions: statistics you need to know

As mentioned, using statistics is an excellent way to help improve the win percentage on your bets, and we’ve put together the most relevant figures from the recently completed 2024-25 campaign to help get you started. 

• Home wins: 43%
• Draws: 24%
• Away wins: 33%
• Average goals: 2.58 goals per game
• +0.5 goals: 92%
• -0.5 goals: 8%
• +1.5 goals: 73%
• -1.5 goals: 27%
• +2.5 goals: 50%
• -2.5 goals: 50%
• +3.5 goals: 24%
• -3.5 goals: 76%
• +4.5 goals: 12%
• -4.5 goals: 88%
• Goal timing distribution: 76-90 minutes (22%)
• First half goals: 45%
• Second half goals: 55%
• Average home team goals: 1.40
• Average away team goals: 1.18
• “Both teams to score: yes”: 52% of matches
• Average shots per match: 19.45 shots
• Wins by 2 goals or more (handicap): 32.5% of matches
• Correct score 0-0: 8.4% of matches
• Correct score 1-1: 10.8% of matches
• Most frequent score: 2-1 or 1-2 (19.6% of games)

Away teams had a good deal of success in the most recent League One season. It could, therefore, be worth considering the double chance market for the away team, which would have come through at a 57% clip last year. And while League One doesn't see as many goals as, say, the Premier League, it still held a respectable 2.58 average goals total in 2024-25. That just means you will have to be more selective as to which matches you decide to play the 'Both teams to score: Yes' and Over 2.5 goals markets going forward.

If you're looking for even higher odds, both the 0-0 and 1-1 exact score markets will certainly be bets that you will want to keep a close eye on. If you spot a matchup between two evenly matches teams, especially if one or both of them are strong defensively, this could be a nice avenue to score some nice payouts! Of course, nothing is guaranteed with these types of bets!

In short: how to make good EFL League One predictions?

While there is no exact science behind making good betting decisions, there are a few guidelines that can be followed which are sure to improve your success rate and increase your winnings. Chief among those guidelines are to stay in tune with the latest news relating to the league and conduct thorough research before placing wagers. 

Avoid the common pitfalls laid out above, and wherever possible, leverage insights from verified experts, such as those here at SportyTrader, who will be covering the entire 2025-26 EFL League One season, and providing their valuable football predictions for you to take advantage of free of charge.

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League One (England - Football): Predictions of the moment

Our League One predictions and betting tips will be available soon. Check back regularly for the latest insights.

League One (England - Football): Best odds

In order to get more information on the League One, don't hesitate to compare League One odds and follow the matches live on our League One Livescore page. These tools will help you make more accurate predictions for the 2025-26 League One.