Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Boxing Day sees just one fixture in the Premier League but it's an important one. Manchester United are seventh in the table and welcome 11th-placed Newcastle United to Old Trafford. Read our match prediction below.
A win for the Red Devils will see them climb into fifth place. They are only three points adrift of the final Champions League qualifying position currently held by Liverpool. The weekend saw them lose at in-form Aston Villa and United really need to get back into winning ways. There has been some improvement this season but the injury suffered by Bruno Fernandes at Villa really puts pressure on them.
Newcastle United's New Year's resolution is going to be to win more away games. But for their poor away league record, they would likely be in the top five. They must also resolve to stop giving away leads as was the case at home to Chelsea last weekend.
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Manchester United v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.55 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.63 | 3.7 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.63 | 3.7 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.44 | 3.6 | 2.66 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester United and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Manchester United vs Newcastle match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/12/2025 between Manchester United and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.05% for a win of Manchester United against Newcastle with odds of 2.66 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester United vs Newcastle is 22.36% with odds of 3.75 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.59% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Manchester United with odds of 2.72 at 888Starz.
Manchester United - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester United Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United wins | 48.05% | 2.66 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.79% | 1.62 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 73.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Manchester United/Manchester United | 18.35% | 4 at Bet365 |
Manchester United vs Newcastle Form
Manchester United and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
71 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 |
|
12
|
49 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 |
Manchester United and Newcastle Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2025 - Premier League
8 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
24 Nov 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4 Dec 2025 - Premier League
24 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
8 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
19 Oct 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Manchester United vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
0 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Apr 2025 - Premier League
30 Dec 2024 - Premier League
15 May 2024 - Premier League
2 Dec 2023 - Premier League
1 Nov 2023 - Carabao Cup
2 Apr 2023 - Premier League
Manchester United - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Only one of their last four league games has been won by Manchester United. Their most recent game in the Premier League saw them beaten 2-1 at Aston Villa. That followed a dramatic 4-4 home draw with Bournemouth. A game that further exposed the defensive problems they have.
United are conceding too many goals.
The Red Devils have conceded 28 league goals this season. That's two more than the combined total conceded by Arsenal and Manchester City. Nine of their last ten league fixtures have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
Home form has produced four league victories this season with a couple of defeats, most recently to Everton. Their form against Newcastle does not make for good reading with five of the last six games against them being lost.
Newcastle United can go ahead of United if they win this match by a two-goal margin. The Magpies are six points behind the top five and it's their away form that is the reason for that gap. Only one of their eight away league fixtures has been won this season, a 4-1 win at Everton. Four of their last five away league matches have ended in defeat. Six of their last seven on the road have seen both teams score.
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Manchester United against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
A. Bayindir
DefenderL. Yoro
T. Fredricson
T. Malacia
S. Lacey
T. Fletcher
J. Fletcher
B. Mantato
ForwardJ. Zirkzee
N. Pope
DefenderA. Murphy
L. Shahar
MidfielderS. Alabi
J. Willock
S. Neave
H. Barnes
Joelinton
Y. Wissa
Missing players
M. De Ligt
D. Burn
E. Krafth
ForwardA. Elanga
W. Osula
Manchester United & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Bruno Fernandes has been such an important player for Manchester United in recent seasons. He was injured in the 2-1 away loss at Aston Villa last Sunday and is expected to be out for six games.
In the Premier League, he's scored five goals for United but even more importantly, he's made seven assists. His absence will greatly affect the Reds and he's not the only absentee over the festive period for United.
The Reds have been hit by AFCON.
Their top league scorer is Bryan Mbuemo and along with Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui, he's playing in AFCON. Also out at present are Harry Maguire, Matthijs de Ligt and Kobbie Mainoo. Better news is the return to fitness of Lisandro Martinez.
Can Newcastle take advantage of United's problems? They do need to start winning away games and keeping leads once they get them. At least Woltemade managed to work out which net to score in with two goals against Chelsea after the own goal at Sunderland.
The Magpies have their own problems though with Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Tino Livramento all ruled out. Nick Pope and Sven Botman are fit again and United could do with them to cut down the number of goals being conceded.
Most goals and assists
Manchester United
Newcastle
B. Mbeumo
(11 Goals)
, 
B. Sesko
(11 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(9 Goals)
B. Fernandes
(21 Assists)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
Manchester United - Newcastle Key Points
- Nine of United's last ten games have seen both teams score.
- That same statistic also applies to Newcastle United.
- Two of the last three games played between these clubs saw both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in three of United's last four home league fixtures.
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Our Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction
Both clubs are underachieving at present. Manchester United continue to try and become a side that can challenge for the title but they remain inconsistent and concede far too many goals to achieve that. They also have to cope with the loss of Bruno Fernandes.
Newcastle United are also struggling to get into the European qualification places and their away form needs significant improvement. They do have a good record against Manchester United but struggle to keep clean sheets. Our main Manchester United v Newcastle predicton is both teams to score.
Manchester United vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
Draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester United Newcastle
| Manchester United vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United wins | 2.27 | 2.66 | +17.2% |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.75 | -4.3% |
| Newcastle wins | 3.13 | 2.72 | -13.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester United is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 17.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 44.1% and is now 37.6% (-6.5%)
Manchester United vs Newcastle - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
