MLS Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free MLS prediction on the overall standings, as well as our expert predictions on all Major League Soccer matches (2024). Lots of information for your sports betting!

MLS presentation - Soccer

Major League Soccer is the football championship of the United States. Each season, the best American franchises compete for the MLS Cup, the trophy awarded to the team that successfully navigates the MLS Cup Playoffs at the end of the season. The MLS is a championship that has been evolving more and more in recent years. Football, or 'soccer' as it is known over there, was clearly not one of the first sports to be played and watched in the United States just a few years ago. However, that’s no longer the case as the quality of play in the MLS has rapidly improved in the last handful of seasons. Thanks to the recruitment of a number of talented youngsters (particularly from South America), as well as the ability to draw some of the world’s most recognizable names, Major League Soccer is fast becoming must-see TV for football enthusiasts around the world. Naturally, this has also led to an explosion in betting popularity on the league which doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon.

Many of football’s royalty have opted to end their careers in the States over the years including: David Beckham, David Villa, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Steven Gerrard, Kaka, Pirlo, Thierry Henry and Gareth Bale. More recently, however, the MLS has benefitted from smart recruitment of young talent, as we mentioned earlier. Players such as Thiago Almada, Facundo Torres, Cucho Hernandez, Pedro de la Vega (recently signed) and Talles Magno are all players that opted for a move to the MLS and have as such seen their transfer value significantly increase. Along with the young talent, there are also a number of football’s most famous names, none bigger than Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi. Messi’s arrival is a huge boon to the league and will attract more attention than ever. He’s joined by Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets as the ex-Barcelona players look to win Inter Miami (the club founded by David Beckham) its first ever MLS Cup.

Want to bet on the US league? Here are our MLS predictions for the long term. For the matches, go to the top of the page.

Check out the MLS odds at Bet365

Our free predictions for the 2024 season

As the regular season in the MLS can often be unpredictable, it’s advisable to wait until closer to the playoffs to have a better idea of each team. However, we believe we’ve identified a few betting lines that look to have value early on.

The Columbus Crew were hugely impressive last season and have all the tools for a repeat MLS Cup performance. They have arguably the best head coach in the league in Wilfried Nancy and one of the premier goalscorers in the division in Cucho Hernandez, who is sure to challenge for the golden boot. If they hit the ground running, their current price could look like a steal come playoff time.

The Seattle Sounders also deserve a mention. While they certainly haven't had the kind of start ot the season that they will have wanted, it's interesting to note that their odds to win the MLS Cup have not changed much at all -- a testament to their squad strength in the eyes of the bookmakers. The Sounders had the league’s best defence last season and added club record signing Pedro de la Vega in the offseason to bolster the attack. With players such as Jordan Morris, Raul Ruidiaz, Cristian Roldan, de la Vega and the usual strong defence, the Sounders are looking like one of the deepest teams in the league.

Finally, Orlando City SC have endured a difficult start to the 2024 campaign. Star signing Luis Muriel has struggled out of the gates for his new club and the Colombian is goalless in his first eight games for Orlando City. Despite this, Orlando were able to return a number of their talented young players such as Facu Torres and Martin Ojeda while making a few potentially smart signings in the offseason. The pieces are still in place to have a similar season to the one which saw Orlando City finish second in the East and push eventual champions Columbus to extra time in the Conference semifinals. There might be a slight market overreaction to their poor start, making this a potentially very good time to bet at 40/1. Therefore the Columbus Crew and the Seattle Sounders with a smaller bet on Orlando City are our selections! Do you agree? Do you have another prediction in mind? Place your bets!

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MLS Cup prediction - Odds for the title (matchday 7)

Sports betting sites are offering you some very interesting odds on the future winner of the 2024 MLS Cup, the football championship in the United States. If you've already made your choice, don't hesitate to lock in your bet! Below are the most recent odds to lift the cup ahead of matchday 7:

• Inter Miami - 3.25
• Columbus Crew - 11.00
• FC Cincinnati - 11.00
• LA Galaxy - 12.00
• New York Red Bulls - 13.00
• Philadelphia Union - 15.00
• Los Angeles FC - 17.00
• Atlanta United - 17.00
• Seattle Sounders - 23.00
• Minnesota United - 29.00
• Saint Louis City SC - 29.00
• Vancouver Whitecaps - 29.00
• DC United - 34.00
• Houston Dynamo - 34.00
• Nashville SC - 34.00
• Sporting KC - 34.00
• Portland Timbers - 34.00
• Orlando City - 41.00
• CF Montreal - 41.00
• Real Salt Lake - 51.00
• New York City - 67.00
• Austin FC - 67.00
• Charlotte FC - 67.00
• FC Dallas - 67.00
• Colorado Rapids - 81.00
• Toronto FC - 81.00
• New England Revolution - 126.00
• San Jose Earthquakes - 126.00
• Chicago Fire - 151.00

Odds taken from Bet365.

You can check out all of the latest MLS odds by heading over to our MLS Betting Odds page.

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Betting on the MLS top scorer: which player to choose?

Sports betting sites also allow you to bet on the MLS top scorer. While the odds are not yet available, here is a selection of players to watch out for this season in the United States. There are plenty to choose from, with some excellent young players and former stars still effective in front of goal. Our favourite is Cucho Hernandez of defending champions Columbus Crew. The Colombian is the spearhead of the Crew attack and struck for 21 goals in 33 regular season appearances last term, resulting in Columbus finishing as the top-scoring team in the MLS (67 goals). At 24-years-old, we believe there is yet more to come from Hernandez who should be entering the peak of his powers in the 2024 season. Barring injury, Cucho looks almost certain to bag another 20+ goal season with Nancy’s attack-minded tactics.

MLS Prediction - Top Scorer Odds

• Georgios Giakoumakis (Atlanta Utd) - 5.00
• Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) - 5.50
• Luis Suarez (Inter Miami) - 5.50
• Lewis Morgan (NYRB) - 13.00
• Christian Benteke (DC United) - 15.00
• Cristian Arango (Real Salt Lake) - 15.00
• Dejan Joveljic (LA Galaxy) - 17.00
• Cucho Hernandez (Columbus Crew) - 21.00
• Denis Bouanga (LAFC) - 21.00
• Luciano Acosta (Cincinnati FC) - 26.00
• Teemu Pukki (Minnesota Utd) - 26.00
• Aaron Boupendza (Cincinnati FC) - 26.00
• Daniel Gazdag (Philadelphia Union) - 26.00
• Alves Antony (Portland) 34.00
• Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC) - 34.00
• Emil Forsberg (NYRB) - 41.00
• Josef Martinez (Montreal) - 41.00
• Jesus Ferreira (FC Dallas) - 51.00
• Alan Pulido (SKC) - 51.00
• Brian White (Vancouver) - 51.00
• Joao Klauss (St. Louis City) - 51.00
• Luis Muriel (Orlando City) - 51.00

Odds taken from bet365.com

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Which team will win the MLS Western Conference?

The parity of the MLS means that there are often surprising results from season to season (see expansion side St. Louis City SC last season). The 2024 campaign so far has some unexpected teams currently towards the top of the Western Conference standings. The Galaxy, who finished 13th last year season, have started brilliantly and are currently the only unbeaten team in the West. Vancouver, Real Salt Lake, Houston and Minnesota are all just two points behind the leaders, while teams expected to challenge for the top spot are struggling in the form of Seattle, LAFC and St. Louis City. Despite managing just two points from their opening five matches, Seattle are still sitting at a very respectable price according to the bookmakers. As we mentioned in the MLS Cup winner section, Seattle have a deep squad and many were anticipating them to challenge for both the championship and the Supporters' Shield.

Minnesota United's price has also caught our eye after a 3-1-1 start to the season. What makes their results particularly impressive so far is the amount of uncertainty they have had to deal with, yet have still been able to get results. They only just had a permanent manager named in the form of 32-year-old former Manchester United assistant first team coach Eric Ramsay and have been without their best player in Emmanuel Reynoso as he pursues a US green card. They will be a team to watch going forward. The Sounders, along with LAFC who will be welcoming Olivier Giroud to the team in the summer, shouldn't be counted out as there is plenty of season left and will be ample opportunities to make up points. At the current odds, backing Seattle and LAFC could prove to be profitable come the end of the campaign, while we are also bullish on Minnesota's chances in the early days of the 2024 season.

MLS Prediction - Western Conference winner odds (matchday 7)

• LA Galaxy - 4.00
• LAFC - 5.00
• Houston Dynamo - 9.00
• Sporting KC - 11.00
• Minnesota United - 12.00
• Seattle Sounders - 13.00
• St. Louis City SC - 13.00
• Vancouver Whitecaps - 13.00
• Portland Timbers - 17.00
• Real Salt Lake - 17.00
• FC Dallas - 21.00
• Austin FC - 23.00
• Colorado Rapids - 51.00
• San Jose Earthquakes - 67.00

Odds taken from bet365.com

Which team will win the MLS Eastern Conference?

The East is certainly the more stacked of the two conferences as it contains five of the current top six MLS Cup favorites. Last season's Supporters' Shield winners FC Cincinnati are off to another strong start and continue to churn out positive results as the only unbeaten team in the East. Inter Miami will naturally be the popular public choice with the star power in the form off Messi and his Barcelona compatriots. However, we envisage Inter Miami as a team that will pace itself throughout the regular season, looking to conserve their players for the MLS Cup Playoffs. They have also shown early on in the season that they can look either like the best team in the league (5-0 win vs Orlando), or like an oddly pedestrian one (4-0 loss to NYRB). Reigning MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew will of course be in the hunt, as will teams such as the resurgent New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United and Orlando City. The level of competition makes this a tough conference to call, but we're going to back Pat Noonan's FC Cincinnati side to pick up where they left off last year. It also helps that they have a legitimate MVP-caliber player in Luciano Acosta, who is coming off a 21 goal, 14 assist season in 41 appearances last year.

MLS Prediction - Eastern Conference winner odds (matchday 7)

• Inter Miami - 2.37
• Columbus Crew - 7.00
• New York RB - 7.50
• FC Cincinnati - 8.00
• Philadelphia Union - 10.00
• Atlanta United - 13.00
• Orlando City - 26.00
• DC United - 29.00
• Nashville - 34.00
• CF Montreal - 41.00
• Charlotte FC - 41.00
• Toronto FC - 41.00
• New York City FC - 67.00
• New England Revs - 126.00
• Chicago Fire - 151.00

Odds taken from bet365.com

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Beginner sports bettors - how does MLS work?

As with most American competitions, and in particular the highly reputed NBA, Major League Soccer is played first in the form of a regular season (two conferences), before a play-off at the end of the tournament. The distribution of teams is slightly different between the two conferences, with 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and 14 teams in the Western Conference. This will only be for one more season though, as the newest MLS franchise San Diego FC officially enters the Western Conference in 2025.

The Major League Soccer finals are played out as follows: the top 7 teams in each conference qualify for the 1st round of the Playoffs. The 8th and 9th-placed teams play a play-off match to reach this stage.

In the 1st round, the teams play each other over two legs. In the event of a draw, there is no extra time, but a penalty shoot-out is held to decide between the teams. From the conference semi-finals onwards, the duels are played over a single match, with the team with the higher ranking receiving the match. In the event of a tie at the end of regulation time, extra time is played, followed by a penalty shoot-out if the teams have still not managed to settle the tie at the end of extra time. At the end of the competition, the final between the champions of the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference is held, to crown the champion team of the United States.

At the end of the regular phase, here are the places that matter:

• The top 7 in each conference qualify for the 1st round of the finals
• The 8th and 9th teams in each conference play off for a place in the 1st round of the play-offs.
• No relegation system, so no relegation to a lower league (closed league)

To bet on the highly-exciting MLS in 2024, visit Bet365, one of the best sites for Major League Soccer betting. Sign up via this link and enjoy a nice bonus!

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Expert advice for your MLS predictions

To help you bet on this exciting league, we’ve compiled a few tips to help you out. Our competition specialists have selected the most important criteria to take into account before validating your betting slips. They will undoubtedly help you place more reliable bets: 

• Observe the form of key players
• Beware of low-stakes matches in the United States
• Analyse the latest Major League Soccer matches
• Take the time to compare MLS odds between bookmakers

The figures and statistics that will be revealed to you below are of great importance, but obviously do not do everything to make the right MLS bets. You also need to be aware of all the parameters you need to take into account. Here are the most important ones in our opinion.

Observe the form of key MLS players

Firstly, and probably most importantly, it is necessary to analyse the form of the key players who are preparing to play in the match that you wish to bet on. In the United States more than elsewhere, in addition to almost all sports, we speak of a “franchise player”, i.e. the most important player on a team. There can sometimes be several of them, and it is then necessary to identify them.

Their latest performances and their current form will be decisive for your predictions. For example, last year, Denis Bouanga finished as the top scorer in MLS, and helped LAFC finish in third-place in the Western Conference!

Beware of low-stakes matches in the USA

It is very important to be aware of what is really at stake in the match you are about to bet on. For example, if a club has already qualified for the playoffs at the end of the season, but is no longer in contention for top spot, it could afford to rest some of its key players in order to be fresh for the second half of the season. The same goes for a club that can no longer qualify for the play-offs and has nothing left to play for at the end of the season, and could probably play the last few games without being 100% focused.

Before betting on the US football championship, you need to take a good look at the official standings and see what is really at stake for a team this season. For example, there is no relegation, so there is no real pressure on the teams at the bottom of the table.

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Analyze the latest Major League Soccer matches

When betting on MLS, it's essential to understand how key players have performed in recent matches, particularly in matches similar to the one you want to bet on. Players who are in good form will be more likely to maintain their high level of play in upcoming matches, which is why the absence of several of these key players could drastically alter their team's performance.

So always analyse the teams' recent matches and check that the team's in-form players are not absent for the match you are considering betting on.

Take the time to compare MLS odds between bookmakers

inally, and this will have a direct impact on your net winnings, we strongly advise you to compare the MLS odds offered by the different bookmakers before placing a bet. It often happens that there is a big difference between two bookmakers for the same type of bet. For example, a big match like Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders might see Unibet offering the home side a win at 1.80, while Vbet will only offer it at 1.70.

At first glance, this may not seem to have much of an impact, but these differences start to add up over the long term. We therefore advise you to sign up with as many bookmakers as possible to guarantee yourself the best odds on the market. What's more, you'll be able to take advantage of the fantastic welcome bonuses offered by the various sports betting sites!

Check out the MLS odds at Bet365

What Not to Do For Your MLS Predictions

In addition to the advice you have been given on how to make the most of your MLS betting, here are some things you should avoid doing as a bettor. Eliminating them from your betting process will help to optimise your results in this competition. Here's what you shouldn't do before placing a bet on an MLS match:

• Ignore the specifics of the American league
• Ignore the statistics and other important MLS figures
• Bet amounts you're not prepared to lose
• Betting on an MLS team that has nothing to play for at the end of the season
• Overvaluing a team because it has a star in its squad
• Not taking into account the home advantage in Major League Soccer

Now you know what mistakes you shouldn't make when betting on MLS. There may be one that you often make without realizing it, so try not to make it again - it's bound to benefit you.

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2024 MLS Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

In order to increase your chances of success in your Major League Soccer bets, you may find some data on the league useful. Below we’ve compiled some of the most useful statistics, note that these figures are from the previous 2023 edition:

• Home win percentage: 48%
• Draw percentage: 29%
• Away win percentage: 23%
• Average goals: 2.76 goals per game
• Average home goals: 1.69 goals per game
• Average away goals: 1.07 goals per game
• Quarter-hour with most goals: 76-90 (22.1%)
• Most frequent exact score: 1-1 (13%)
• Exact score 0-0: 8.4% of matches
• Most frequent exact half-time score: 0-0 (31%)
• Over 1.5 goals: 77%
• Over 2.5 goals: 55%
• Over 3.5 goals: 30%
• "Both teams score: yes": 56%

The MLS is a pretty spectacular league, which improves year on year and generally puts on a great show. In any case, it's a way of life in the United States. It's clearly the land of excess and show, and soccer is now part of that too. More than half the games end with a goal from either side, and there are at least 3 goals scored in more than one match out of two.

It is the home teams in particular that are performing well offensively, with an average of 1.69 goals scored. Now you know the most important statistics for your MLS predictions!

Make your MLS selections

In short: how do you bet on the MLS and make successful predictions?

If you want to make reliable football predictions this year in MLS, remember to take into account the advice given on this page by our tipsters. An in-depth analysis of each match is necessary, and the key figures on the competition are there to help you. 

It is also useful to familiarise yourself with the general workings of the league and to bear in mind its special features, which make it unique in the world. Happy betting on American Major League Soccer!

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