Tip Metz - Lille Osc
For the second straight Ligue 1 game, Metz will be up against a title contender. They host Lille right after a 4-0 loss to Monaco in the league and will be hoping to put a dent on the visitors’ title charge. Metz go to this game placed ninth with 42 points while Lille are top of the standings on 66 points. A top half finish should be good enough for Metz this season but they need a lot of improvement to be able to achieve that at the end of the season. Going to this game, they’re the lowest scoring side in the top 10, with 36 goals, 15 lesser than Lille’s tally. They’ve failed to score in their last two matches – both against Monaco – and are winless in their last four Ligue 1 matches. In the four league games, Metz have conceded 10 goals and scored only three. They have no clean sheet in the last 10 league matches with seven of them producing over 2.5 goals. Metz suffered a 3-1 loss to Rennes in their last home match in the league and head here with three straight home losses in Ligue 1, and just two wins in the last 11 league matches at home. In the 11 home league matches, the team has five losses and only three clean sheets. The poor run at home in the league is highlighted by a run of five wins in the 15 home matches this season, and having secured just 19 of a possible 45 points. Their winning rate at home in the league stands at 33%.
Lille are coming from a very crucial 1-0 away win at PSG, which sent them three points at the top of the Ligue 1 standings. The league leaders are unbeaten in their last four matches against Metz, with three wins. Their last loss to Metz was back in 2017 and they have three clean sheets in the four meetings after that. Canadian international Jonathan David scored the lone goal against PSG, his 10th in the league campaign, handing Lille a ninth win in 13 league matches. The only loss in the run was the shock defeat by Nimes before the international break, and they have nine clean sheets as well in the 13 matches. Great defending has been Lille’s pillar in the season; they’re the best on that front, having conceded 19 goals in the season so far. The league leaders have scored more than one goal in just six of their last 15 league matches, but they have 10 wins in the 15 matches. This has left them as the lowest scoring side in the top four but as long as they keep winning, they won’t care much about the difference. Away from home, no team in the league has posted better returns; Lille head to this game unbeaten in their last 10 away matches, with eight wins in there. In the 15 away league matches this season, Lille have lost just once and won 10. Out of a possible 45 points away from home, they’ve secured 34 and have a 67% winning rate in away matches.
Key points Metz - Lille Osc
Metz have no win over Lille in their last four meetings.
Metz have no clean sheet in their last 10 matches.
Metz are winless in their last four home matches.
Lille are unbeaten in their last 10 away matches.
Lille have one loss in 15 away league matches.
Conclusion Metz - Lille Osc
Metz have been second best in their recent matches against Lille and they head here on a four-game winless run. It doesn’t also help that they are the lowest scorers in the top 10. They aren’t the best side when playing at home, and here they get to face the league’s best performers away from home. Lille are clear favorites but like it has been in most of their previous games, we don’t expect them to score a lot, so go for under 2.5 goals.
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Metz Lille Osc Prediction published on April 7, 2021