Lesotho vs Morocco Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in AFCON Predictions
Defending Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) winners Morocco will look to make it two wins out of two to start their 2027 AFCON qualifiers on a high when they play Lesotho. This Group A match on Tuesday between the third-placed ‘Crocodiles’ and the first-placed ‘Atlas Lions’ at the neutral venue of Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein could be a low-scoring one with under 3.5 goals, our match prediction.
Lesotho are third in the standings after matchday one, with only a goal difference keeping them from the bottom. Morocco are top with a win on matchday one, edging Niger by goal difference.
After conceding twice in the first half, Lesotho fell to a 2-1 defeat at Niger with only an 85th-minute penalty reducing the deficit. It was an eighth defeat for the ‘Crocodiles’ from their last 13 games, winning only two.
Lesotho are unbeaten in four of their last five matches (W2, D2) when playing as hosts, but can they continue that trend here?
Morocco started with a 2-0 home win over Gabon to start their qualification campaign. It was a fifth win from their last six matches, with the lone loss in that sequence coming against France in the World Cup.
The defending tournament champions have now won their last eight AFCON qualifiers, keeping clean sheets in six of those games.
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Lesotho v Morocco Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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25 | 10 | 1.02 |
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55 | 13.5 | 1.03 |
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55 | 13.5 | 1.03 |
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55 | 13.5 | 1.03 |
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|
34 | 15 | 1.04 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lesotho and Morocco?
Our prediction for the Lesotho vs Morocco match is: under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/09/2026 between Lesotho and Morocco in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 20.27% for a win of Lesotho against Morocco with odds of 55 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lesotho vs Morocco is 24.31% with odds of 17 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 55.42% chance ⭐ for a win of Morocco vs Lesotho with odds of 1.05 at Betsson.
Lesotho vs Morocco Form
Lesotho and Morocco's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
|
3
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
Lesotho and Morocco Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - AFCON
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
29 Mar 2026 - AFCON
26 Mar 2026 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
29 Mar 2026 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - AFCON
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - AFCON
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - AFCON
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
29 Jun 2026 - World Cup
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - AFCON
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 May 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
29 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
13 Jun 2026 - World Cup
18 Jan 2026 - AFCON
Lesotho vs Morocco Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
9 Sept 2024 - AFCON
Missing players
A. Hakimi
C. Riad
Lesotho and Morocco Stats in AFCON
Lesotho - Morocco Key Points
- Eight of Lesotho’s last nine fixtures produced under 3.5 goals.
- Seven of Lesotho’s last matches in AFCON qualification saw at most three goals within 90 minutes.
- Seven of Morocco’s last eight matches produced fewer than four goals within 90 minutes.
- Morocco’s last nine designated away games produced three or fewer goals.
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Our Lesotho vs Morocco Prediction
A comfortable victory over Gabon got Morocco going, although they would have wanted more than the two goals they scored. Lesotho have never qualified for an AFCON finals tournament and a loss here could complicate their chances of ending that drought. Their struggles against top teams could be a challenge, although they may look to keep it tight.
Morocco have won both their previous AFCON qualifiers against Lesotho without conceding, and while that may continue, goals could be limited here. Our Lesotho vs Morocco prediction is under 3.5 goals.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
