Spain vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Spain and Croatia will meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in Group A3 of the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday evening. La Roja netted three times in their UNL opener over the weekend, and our prediction is that they will score at least twice in this match as well.
After lifting the World Cup title in North America in July, Spain returned to action with an excellent come-from-behind victory over England at Wembley Stadium on Saturday evening. With that result, Luis de la Fuente’s side extended their unbeaten run to a stunning 39 matches (in regulation time), dating back to March 2024 against Colombia.
Slaven Bilić marked the start of his second spell as the Vatreni head coach with a victory over the Czech Republic on Saturday in Prague. The new boss will be eager to follow up with another three points here, but his side have not tasted victory against the world champions since November 2018 in this competition. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Spain v Croatia Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.19 | 6.8 | 12 |
|
|
1.2 | 7.39 | 15.5 |
|
|
1.18 | 7.2 | 15 |
|
|
1.18 | 7.2 | 15 |
|
|
1.18 | 7.2 | 15 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and Croatia?
Our prediction for the Spain vs Croatia match is: Spain to score between 2 and 4 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/09/2026 between Spain and Croatia in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 68.62% for a win of Spain against Croatia with odds of 1.24 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs Croatia is 9.72% with odds of 7.5 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.66% chance ⭐ for a win of Croatia vs Spain with odds of 16 at Betsson.
Spain vs Croatia Form
Spain and Croatia's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
|
2
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
Spain and Croatia Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
19 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jul 2026 - World Cup
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
17 Nov 2025 - World Cup
Spain vs Croatia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
20 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
18 Jun 2023 - UEFA Nations League
28 Jun 2021 - Euro
15 Nov 2018 - UEFA Nations League
11 Sept 2018 - UEFA Nations League
Spain - Croatia: Form Analysis
After losing the final of the 2024-25 Nations League to Portugal on penalties, Spain kicked off this cycle with a stunning 3-2 victory over England, coming back from 2-1 down at the home of football.
La Roja capitalised on individual errors by the Three Lions’ players to secure the victory. They finished with 53% possession, 3.12 xG, and created an impressive six big chances across the 90.
The world champions are now on an eight-match win streak and have kept clean sheets in seven of their last nine matches dating back to their opening match of the 2026 World Cup against Cape Verde.
Spain have won their last three matches against Croatia in all competitions!
Meanwhile, after bowing out of the World Cup in the Round of 32 to Portugal, Croatia got the Slaven Bilić era started with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic on the road on Saturday.
Vatreni dominated that match in almost every statistical category, including possession (56%), xG (1.84), big chances created (3), touches in the opposition box (27) and total shots at goal (16).
The visitors have now won five of their last seven away games in all competitions (D1 L1), but they were winless in their last four Nations League matches back in 2024, losing three and drawing one.
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Spain vs Croatia last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Martínez
D. Raya
DefenderA. Grimaldo
D. Huijsen
MidfielderPedri
M. Zubimendi
A. Baena
M. Merino
F. Lopez
ForwardY. Pino
M. Oyarzabal
I. Pandur
D. Kotarski
DefenderI. Smolcic
J. Sutalo
MidfielderL. Majer
J. Misic
M. Pasalic
N. Vlasic
ForwardD. Beljo
M. Pasalic
A. Kramaric
A. Budimir
Spain & Croatia Squad Analysis
Lamine Yamal gave Spain the lead by capitalising on an error by Marc Guehi inside the first two minutes of the last match. The teenager has been in scintillating form this term, now on 15 direct goal contributions in his last seven matches for club and country.
Alex Baena delivered an excellent cameo against the Three Lions and could be brought into the starting 11 here. The Atletico Madrid man needed just five minutes to level matters at 2-2 and notched up the assist for his team’s winner.
Eric Garcia felt discomfort in his knee during the warm-up of the last match. He has now left the Spain camp to return to his club to avoid any further damage, with Ruben Le Normand earning a call-up to replace him.
“We can only be proud that we live in his era and have the privilege to watch him play!”
That was the assessment of De la Fuente about the evergreen Luka Modric after his performance against Czechia. The former Ballon d’Or winner opened the scoring for his side and orchestrated play from midfield with incredible technical ability.
Fellow veteran Ivan Perisic has not had the best start to the season for PSV, but he steps up a level almost every time he pulls on the national colours. He scored the winner in the last match and now has three goal contributions in his last five for Vatreni.
Croatia came away from the last match with no fresh injury concerns, meaning they should have a full squad at their disposal in this one.
Most goals and assists
Spain
Croatia
M. Oyarzabal
(1 Goals)
,
A. Baena
(1 Goals)
,
L. Yamal
(1 Goals)
L. Modric
(1 Goals)
,
M. Pasalic
(1 Goals)
D. Olmo
(1 Assists)
,
A. Baena
(1 Assists)
I. Perisic
(1 Assists)
Spain and Croatia Stats in UEFA Nations League
Spain - Croatia Key Points
- Spain have scored between 2 and 4 goals in five of their last eight matches.
- Spain have only failed to score in one of their last 14 home games.
- Croatia have only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 matches.
- Spain beat this opponent 3-0 in their last encounter in this competition.
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Our Spain vs Croatia Prediction
Croatia kicked off their Nations League campaign with an impressive victory over the Czech Republic, and given their record in major tournaments, it’s tough to write them off in many matches.
However, this is one opponent that may have their number. Spain underlined their status as the best team in the world against England, and their attack is firing on all cylinders coming into this contest. Therefore, our Spain vs Croatia prediction is Spain to score between 2 and 4 goals.
Spain vs Croatia Alternative Predictions
Spain wins
Lamine Yamal to score or assist
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