Wales vs Portugal Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Group A4 in the UEFA Nations League will draw to a close with Wales playing host to Portugal at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday night. Matches involving these sides in this competition have averaged 2.9 goals per game, and we are expecting a similar tally in this one, as discussed in our prediction below.
A Seleção are in need of a response here after getting humbled by Denmark on Saturday, less than two weeks after the official retirement of Cristiano Ronaldo. Still, having taken 12 points from their first four games, Jorge Jesus’s side are guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals, regardless of the outcome in this match.
The Dragons’ hopes of reaching the quarter-finals were officially ended on Saturday on their trip to Norway. Bottom of the group with three points, Craig Bellamy’s side look destined for the relegation battle unless they can pull off an upset here and Norway completely fluff their lines against Denmark. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Wales v Portugal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.80 | 5.40 | 1.31 |
|
|
7.48 | 5.10 | 1.43 |
|
|
7.30 | 4.98 | 1.40 |
|
|
8.15 | 5.59 | 1.28 |
|
|
7.30 | 4.98 | 1.40 |
|
Our editorial team's top-confidence betting tip, every day.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Wales and Portugal?
Our prediction for the Wales vs Portugal match is: between 2 and 4 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/11/2026 between Wales and Portugal in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 9.91% for a win of Wales against Portugal with odds of 8.15 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Wales vs Portugal is 21.91% with odds of 5.59 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 68.18% chance ⭐ for a win of Portugal vs Wales with odds of 1.44 at Shangrila.
Wales vs Portugal Form
Wales and Portugal's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 |
|
4
|
3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
Wales and Portugal Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
1 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
1 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
1 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
Wales vs Portugal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
Wales - Portugal: Form Analysis
Wales’ chances of finishing in the top two were ended on Saturday night when they suffered a 3-1 defeat on the road to Norway. They have now lost four of their five matches in this season’s Nations League.
The Dragons have struggled in attack in this competition. They have the second-worst xG (3.7), the second-fewest shots on target per 90 (3.2), and the third-fewest big chances created (8) after five games.
The hosts have split their two Nations League home games this season, one win and one defeat. However, they have only won two of their last eight matches on home soil since last September.
Wales have not kept a home clean sheet in the last year!
Meanwhile, Portugal’s perfect record in the UNL was halted on Saturday night when they suffered a 4-1 defeat against Denmark at home. They have now scored 10 and conceded eight goals in this competition.
A Seleção have overperformed their 8.2 xG and are averaging the second-most shots on target in League A (6.8), but they squandered three of their four big chances against Norway last time out.
The visitors are unbeaten in their last four away games across all competitions and have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight on the road. This is their first competitive match in Wales.
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Wales vs Portugal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Duncan
D. Ward
DefenderJ. Lienou
C. Roberts
C. Mepham
MidfielderC. Ashford
K. Andrews
R. Colwill
J. Sheehan
ForwardA. Collins
M. Harris
D. Brooks
R. Silva
S. Soares
DefenderA. Silva
Nazinho
MidfielderB. Silva
J. Neves
R. Mora
J. Palhinha
ForwardG. Quenda
F. Trincao
F. Silva
C. Forbs
Wales & Portugal Squad Analysis
David Brooks had an impressive cameo against Norway. The Bournemouth midfielder needed just seven minutes to find the back of the net after coming off the bench, and he will be hoping for a starting role in this match.
Liverpool youngster Lewis Koumas failed to record a single shot and had just one touch in the opposition box on Saturday, which could prompt Bellamy to bring Mark Harris into attack from the off here.
Neco Williams was forced off in the 72nd minute through injury in Oslo and is a major doubt. If the Nottingham full-back is unable to feature, Connor Roberts is the most likely to step into the defensive quartet.
Pressure on Goncalo Ramos to produce in Cardiff this week?
With Ronaldo now gone, Ramos has massive boots to fill, but he had a forgettable outing in Braga, failing to record a shot at goal or touch in the opposition box, while ending the match with a mere 0.05 xG.
Bernardo Silva came off the bench to net the team’s only goal on Saturday, and he is expected to start this match in midfield alongside Bruno Fernandes and Joao Felix, with Pedro Neto the most likely to drop to the bench.
Jesus will have to make do without two key players in Ruben Dias and Joao Palhinha after both received their second yellows in the competition last time out.
Most goals and assists
Wales
Portugal
D. James
(1 Goals)
,
N. Williams
(1 Goals)
,
D. Brooks
(1 Goals)
Joao Felix
(3 Goals)
,
G. Ramos
(3 Goals)
S. Thomas
(1 Assists)
,
H. Wilson
(1 Assists)
N. Mendes
(2 Assists)
,
B. Fernandes
(2 Assists)
Wales and Portugal Stats in UEFA Nations League
Wales - Portugal Key Points
- Matches involving Wales in this competition have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Wales have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight home games.
- Matches involving Portugal in this competition have averaged 3.6 goals.
- Portugal have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight away games.
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Our Wales vs Portugal Prediction
Wales have struggled to cope with the step up in class in League A of the Nations League, and while they can still finish third in the group, the Dragons are still all but certain to enter the relegation scrap.
Portugal and Jorge Jesus are under serious pressure to respond after their dismal showing against Denmark over the weekend. We fancy the visitors to get the job done, but are opting for a lower-risk goals range as our main prediction. Our Wales vs Portugal prediction is between 2 and 4 goals.
Wales vs Portugal Alternative Predictions
Goncalo Ramos 2+ shots on target
Portugal wins
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Wales vs Portugal - FAQs
The UEFA Nations League match between Wales and Portugal will be broadcast on S4C (United Kingdom) and Sport TV Portugal.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
