Wales vs Norway Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Cardiff City Stadium will come to life on Thursday night when Wales play host to Norway in Group A4 of the UEFA Nations League. Wales have lost both games in this competition, and we feel they will suffer another defeat in this match, as explained in our prediction below.
The Dragons secured promotion to League A in the last edition of the UNL, but they have endured a tough start to life in the top flight, losing their first two matches ahead of this one. Wales are the only team that has yet to score a goal in League A, but Craig Bellamy will be expecting improvement here, given that this is his side’s first home game in this competition.
Norway are second in the group standings and are looking to bounce back from defeat to Portugal on Sunday night. The Vikings have lost their last two matches against this opponent, but those games were well over a decade ago, and much has changed personnel-wise since then, with the Red, White, and Blue now possessing one of the most devastating attacks in Europe. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Wales v Norway Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.6 | 4.5 | 1.48 |
|
|
6.02 | 4.66 | 1.54 |
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|
5.95 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
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|
5.85 | 4.56 | 1.5 |
|
|
5.95 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Wales and Norway?
Our prediction for the Wales vs Norway match is: Norway wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/10/2026 between Wales and Norway in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 18.29% for a win of Wales against Norway with odds of 6.3 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Wales vs Norway is 26.96% with odds of 4.66 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.75% chance ⭐ for a win of Norway vs Wales with odds of 1.54 at 1xbet.
Wales vs Norway Form
Wales and Norway's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
|
4
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 |
Wales and Norway Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jul 2026 - World Cup
5 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
22 Jun 2026 - World Cup
1 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
16 Jun 2026 - World Cup
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
Wales - Norway: Form Analysis
Wales have struggled to come to terms with the step up in class in the Nations League. They have lost both their matches in this campaign, 1-0 to Portugal before a 2-0 defeat against Denmark on Sunday.
Against Denmark, the Dragons were starved of possession (38%) and only had 14 touches in the opposition box compared to the Danes’ 47. They ended the match with just 0.62 xG and two big chances created.
While the hosts will hope for a better showing here at home, their record on home soil does not inspire much confidence as they have only won one of their last six home games in all competitions (D2 L3).
Wales are now winless in their last six matches across all competitions (D2 L4)!
Meanwhile, Norway kicked off their UNL campaign with an impressive 3-2 victory over Denmark, but they were wasteful against Portugal on Sunday and ended up losing their second match 2-1 at home.
To illustrate their wastefulness last time out - the Vikings recorded 2.52 xG and fired 22 shots at goal (nine on target) but only managed to score one of the six big chances they created against Portugal.
Still, that was just the second defeat in regulation time that the visitors suffered in their last 11 matches across all competitions, and they have only lost one of their last seven games on the road.
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Wales vs Norway last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Cornell
T. King
DefenderC. Congreve
R. Norrington-Davies
J. DaSilva
B. Cabango
MidfielderJ. James
L. Koumas
J. Sheehan
ForwardW. Burns
L. Cullen
M. Harris
E. Selvik
S. Tangvik
DefenderL. Ostigard
O. Bjortuft
M. Holmgren Pedersen
O. Blomberg
MidfielderF. Sjovold
O. Bobb
K. Thorstvedt
T. Aasgaard
ForwardE. Botheim
J. Strand Larsen
Wales & Norway Squad Analysis
Neco Williams was the standout performer for Wales in the last match. The Nottingham Forest man won 13 duels in defence and ended the match with the most shots at goal for his team (3) bombing forward from left-back.
Kieffer Moore was tasked with leading the line on Sunday, but he had a forgettable outing, finishing with just 0.06 xG, which could prompt Bellamy to bring Liverpool youngster Lewis Koumas back into the starting lineup for this clash.
The hosts came away from the last game with no new fitness concerns, but they are without the likes of Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow, and Joe Rodon, all of whom are sidelined through injury.
Can Wales stop the rampant Erling Haaland?
Haaland was once again on the scoresheet for Norway in the last match and has now scored 65 goals in 57 games for the national team. The Man City talisman has netted 10 goals in his last seven matches for club and country.
Martin Odegaard will likely continue to dictate proceedings from midfield. The Arsenal skipper had a match-high 113 touches, four key passes, and one big chance created against Portugal.
Alexander Soloth is ruled out, and Julian Ryerson is a doubt after picking up a knock in Oslo. However, the visitors will be able to call on David Wolfe, who has now served his suspension for the red card he received against Denmark.
Wales and Norway Stats in UEFA Nations League
Wales - Norway Key Points
- Wales are winless in their last six matches across all competitions.
- Wales have failed to score in their two UNL matches in this campaign.
- Wales have only won one of their last six home matches.
- Norway have won six of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Norway have won five of their last seven away games.
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Our Wales vs Norway Prediction
Wales will be hoping for improvement here with this being their first home game of this campaign, but they have looked poor compared to the other teams in this group and have only won one of their last six matches on home soil.
Norway, meanwhile, have the attacking arsenal to cause even the meanest defences problems, as we saw against Portugal, and we feel the Vikings will be too good for the stuttering Dragons in this one. Our Wales vs Norway prediction is Norway wins.
Wales vs Norway Alternative Predictions
Erling Haaland to score anytime
Over 2.5 goals
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Wales vs Norway - FAQs
The UEFA Nations League match between Wales and Norway will be broadcast live on S4C (UK) and TV2 Play (Norway).
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
