France vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The standout fixture on Friday night in Group A1 of the UEFA Nations League will see France lock horns with Italy at Stade de France. Each of the last four matches between these sides have ended with four goals each, and we are expecting a similar tally here, as discussed in our prediction below.
Zinedine Zidane’s tenure as head coach of Les Bleus has got off to a solid start, with his side winning both games in this competition and currently leading the group standings with six points. Another victory for the French will put them in a very strong position to advance to the quarter-finals once again in this campaign.
Roberto Mancini made wholesale changes to his team after suffering defeat in their opener, and the tactical tweaks paid off with Gli Azzurri securing a commanding victory over Turkey last time out. While Italy are the clear underdogs in this match, they did beat this opponent in France on their last visit in the 2024-25 UNL group stage. Let’s get into the key stats!
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France v Italy Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.4 | 4.8 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.44 | 5.21 | 6.98 |
|
|
1.41 | 5.1 | 6.8 |
|
|
1.42 | 5.05 | 6.65 |
|
|
1.41 | 5.1 | 6.8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between France and Italy?
Our prediction for the France vs Italy match is: between 2 and 4 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 02/10/2026 between France and Italy in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.29% for a win of France against Italy with odds of 1.45 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between France vs Italy is 8.83% with odds of 5.25 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs France with odds of 6.98 at 1xbet.
France vs Italy Form
France and Italy's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
|
3
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
France and Italy Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
22 Jun 2026 - World Cup
16 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
29 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
France vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
France - Italy: Form Analysis
While France have not been at their best in attack in this competition, they have looked solid in defence and notched up back-to-back 1-0 victories over Turkey and Belgium in their first two games.
Despite only scoring once and recording 1.22 xG against Belgium, Les Bleus dictated proceedings with 65% possession, 41 touches in the opposition box, and two big chances created.
The hosts have now won nine of their last 11 matches across all competitions dating back to a June friendly against Ivory Coast. They scored two or more goals in seven matches during this period.
France have kept clean sheets in five of their last eight home matches in all competitions!
Meanwhile, after missing out on the 2026 World Cup, Italy have made a mixed start to their UNL campaign, losing their opener 2-0 to Belgium before bouncing back with a 4-1 victory over Turkey.
Gli Azzurri scored three goals inside the opening half hour against the Crescent Stars and ended the match with 2.28 xG, 22 touches in the opposition box, and 14 shots at goal (8 on target).
The visitors are on a three-match win streak on the road and have not lost any of their last seven away games in regulation time across all competitions since a 3-0 defeat to Norway in June last year.
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France vs Italy last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
G. Restes
J. Butez
DefenderJ. Kounde
A. Truffert
L. Yoro
D. Upamecano
MidfielderM. Kone
A. Rabiot
R. Cherki
ForwardM. Olise
O. Dembele
M. Carnesecchi
G. Vicario
DefenderR. Calafiori
G. Di Lorenzo
D. Ghilardi
MidfielderR. Mandragora
A. Romano
A. Vergara
I. Doumbia
N. Cambiaghi
ForwardM. Kean
G. Scamacca
France & Italy Squad Analysis
Zidane made nine changes to his team for the last match against Belgium, but he is likely to bring the likes of Dayot Upamecano, Manu Kone, Rayan Cherki, and Jules Kounde back into the starting 11 for this clash.
All eyes will be on Michael Olise, who came off the bench and scored a stunning solo effort to secure the victory over Belgium on Sunday after setting up Les Bleus’ winner against Turkey in the first match.
The biggest setback for the home side is the absence of Kylian Mbappe, who is ruled out for the remainder of this international window through injury. Either Desire Doue or Bradley Barcola are likely to replace their skipper in the attacking trio.
Olise has 13 direct goal contributions in nine games for club and country this season!
Like Zidane, Mancini also made nine changes to his starting lineup in the last match, but he is expected to stick with most of the squad from that encounter given the improvement they showed from the loss against Belgium.
However, Italy will be forced into at least one alteration, with Giacomo Raspadori now headed back to Atalanta after sustaining an injury against Turkey. Nicolo Zaniolo had already left camp before that match due to a hamstring issue.
Francesco Pio Esposito was the standout performer for Gli Azzurri last time out, scoring their fourth goal of the evening and setting up their third. He now has five goal contributions in his last six starts for Inter Milan and the national team.
Most goals and assists
France
Italy
K. Mbappe
(1 Goals)
,
M. Olise
(1 Goals)
A. Bastoni
(1 Goals)
,
D. Frattesi
(1 Goals)
,
M. Kayode
(1 Goals)
,
F. Esposito
(1 Goals)
M. Olise
(1 Assists)
M. Ruggeri
(1 Assists)
,
F. Esposito
(1 Assists)
France and Italy Stats in UEFA Nations League
France - Italy Key Points
- Ten of France’s last 15 matches have ended with between 2 and 4 goals.
- France have scored two or more goals in five of their last six home games.
- France and Italy recorded 1.22 and 2.28 xG in their last match, respectively.
- Italy have only failed to score in one of their last 10 away games.
- Each of the last four matches between these sides ended in a 3-1 scoreline.
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Our France vs Italy Prediction
While France have been dealt a major blow with the injury to Kylian Mbappe, they still have plenty of firepower in attack and will be looking to make a statement with this being their first home game in this UNL campaign.
After a sluggish start against Belgium, Italy showed much greater threat in the final third against Turkey, which would have given them a huge boost coming into this clash. We are expecting plenty of chances to be created in this one. Therefore, our France vs Italy prediction is between 2 and 4 goals.
France vs Italy Alternative Predictions
Michael Olise to score or assist
France wins
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France vs Italy - FAQs
The UEFA Nations League match between France and Italy will be broadcast live on la chaîne L'Équipe (France) and Sky Italia (Italy). UK viewers can tune in to Prime Video UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
