ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz has advanced to yet another semi-final in 2025 and will face off against fourth seed Casper Ruud in Tokyo. The winner of their sixth career meeting will play Taylor Fritz or Jenson Brooksby in the final. Read on to find our prediction for this match.
Carlos Alcaraz will contest his 11th semi-final of the year. He has won nine of the 10 he has so far contested and has gone on to win seven titles. As the overwhelming favourite to win this year’s Japan Open title, Alcaraz is on course for a historic season.
The world number one is three titles away from being only the sixth ATP player to win at least 10 titles in a year. To advance to this round, the Spaniard defeated Brandon Nakashima in straight sets.
Casper Ruud defeated Alcaraz in the ATP Finals last season. Snapping a four-match losing run to the Spaniard, he will hope to build on a streak of his own in this series.
The Norwegian, who is having his best-ever campaign in Tokyo, defeated the qualifier Aleksandar Vukic in straights in the quarter-finals. The win, his 12th on hard courts this year, saw him improve to 33-12.
Currently the world number 12, Ruud will move back into the ATP’s top 10 if he is crowned champion in Tokyo.
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The Best Betting Odds for Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.12 | 6 |
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1.11 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.11 | 7 |
|
|
1.09 | 5.7 |
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1.12 | 6.3 |
|
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud match is: Alcaraz at -6 on games won.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud game on 29/09/2025 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 72.88% chance to win against Casper Ruud according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 1.12.
- Casper Ruud has a 27.12% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 7 at Unibet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 72.88 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 72.88 % |
| Casper Ruud | 27.12 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
28 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
27 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
21 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
7 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
28 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
26 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
19 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
27 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
25 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
11 Nov 2024 - ATP Finals
2 Oct 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
11 Sep 2022 - ATP US Open
3 Apr 2022 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Casper Ruud Key Points
- Alcaraz has won 65 matches in 2025.
- Alcaraz has won four of five meetings with Ruud.
- Three of Alcaraz’s four wins over Ruud have been on hard courts.
- Of the 10 semi-finals he has contested this year, Alcaraz has won nine times.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Prediction
In our Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud prediction, we have Alcaraz at -6 on games won. Alcaraz has dominated his previous duels with Ruud, especially when they have faced off on hard courts. The Spaniard has won four of their five duels thus far and is unbeaten on hard courts, with three victories.
As the most in-form player in the ATP in 2025, Alcaraz is the overwhelming favourite to go on and be crowned champion in Tokyo. Yet to lose a set this week, we expect Alcaraz to, therefore, have another dominant outing against Ruud.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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