Sporting Lisbon vs PSG Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Joseph King | in Champions League Predictions
The penultimate round of fixtures in the League Phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League sees Portuguese champions Sporting take on French and European champions PSG in Lisbon. Leões are sitting 14th in the standings on 10 points while Les Parisiens come into this match in third-place with 13 points. Check out our match prediction below!
Sporting find themselves two points outside of the top eight spots and automatic entry into the round of 16. Realistically, the hosts will be aiming to secure a spot in the top 24 and thus a place in the knockout round playoff. They do still have an outside chance at a top eight finish, although it would likely require them to win their remaining two matches. For context, the eighth-placed team in the 2024-25 campaign (Aston Villa) finished with 16 points.
PSG are well-positioned for a top eight finish with 13 points from their first six games. The reigning champions finished 15th in this stage last year but have carried over the form which saw them storm to their first ever Champions League title in the second half of the 2024-25 season.
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Sporting Lisbon v PSG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.3 | 4.1 | 1.76 |
|
|
4.36 | 4.16 | 1.72 |
|
|
4.36 | 4.16 | 1.72 |
|
|
4.2 | 4.2 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.3 | 4.1 | 1.73 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Sporting Lisbon and PSG?
Our prediction for the Sporting Lisbon vs PSG match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/01/2026 between Sporting Lisbon and PSG in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.54% for a win of Sporting Lisbon against PSG with odds of 4.6 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sporting Lisbon vs PSG is 20.79% with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.68% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Sporting Lisbon with odds of 1.78 at 888Starz.
Sporting Lisbon - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sporting Lisbon PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 44.54% | 4.6 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.05% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 61.9% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Sporting Lisbon/Sporting Lisbon | 18.54% | 7 at Bet365 |
Sporting Lisbon vs PSG Form
Sporting Lisbon and PSG's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
|
11
|
14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +10 |
Sporting Lisbon and PSG Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Jan 2026 - French Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Trophée des Champions
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
17 Dec 2025 - FIFA Intercontinental Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Jan 2026 - French Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Trophée des Champions
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Dec 2025 - FIFA Intercontinental Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
Sporting Lisbon - PSG: Form Analysis
PSG suffered a shocking exit in the French Cup round of 32, losing 1-0 at home to Paris FC in a massive upset. The result means that there will be a French Cup champion other than PSG for only the fourth time in the last 12 editions.
They were able to bounce back with an assured 3-0 home win over Lille on Friday to move them within a point of surprise Ligue 1 leaders RC Lens. PSG now have six wins in their last seven matches, although two of those came via penalties.
PSG recently added the FIFA Intercontinental Cup and Trophee des Champions to the trophy cabinet.
During that stretch PSG added two pieces of silverware to cap off what has been an incredible last 12 months.
Sporting recently suffered a stunning cup exit of their own. They would concede two stoppage time goals to lose 2-1 to Vitoria Guimaraes in the League Cup semi-final. Like their opponents, Sporting were able to bounce back with a comfortable league win in their most recent outing, beating Casa Pia 3-0 at home.
In Europe, Sporting have won three and drawn once in six contests, with their most recent UCL match ending in a 3-1 away defeat to high-flying Bayern Munich. At home in the Champions League, Leões have a 100% record, with three wins in three after beating Kairat (4-1), Marseille (2-1) and, most recently, Club Brugge (3-0).
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Sporting Lisbon against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Callai
J. Virginia
DefenderG. Vagiannidis
Z. Debast
D. Moreira
MidfielderA. Santos
D. Braganca
E. Felicissimo
G. Kochorashvili
M. Couto
R. Nel
F. Goncalves
M. James
R. Marin
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
MidfielderN. Nsoki
ForwardK. Kvaratskhelia
G. Ramos
Missing players
M. Safonov
DefenderA. Hakimi
MidfielderL. Kang-in
J. Neves
ForwardI. Mbaye
Q. Ndjantou
Sporting Lisbon & PSG Squad Analysis
There are a few players missing for PSG manager Luis Enrique. Standout wonderkid Joao Neves is listed as doubtful with a muscle injury and missed out in the team’s win against Lille on Friday.
Right back Achraf Hakimi is not yet available after participating in Morocco’s AFCON final defeat to Senegal on Sunday. Lucas Hernandez is suspended while there are four other players who are either out or doubtful to take part.
PSG have six players that have scored six or more goals across all competitions.
There’s great goalscoring balance across this PSG side, but it’s Ousmane Dembele that will undoubtedly be the visitors’ primary attacking threat on Tuesday. The reigning Ballon d’Or winner has scored 10 goals in 24 appearances this season and is on a red-hot run with five goals in his last five appearances, including a brace in the 3-0 win over Lille.
Spoting manager Rui Borges has a lengthy injury list of eight players which includes some important pieces. Chelsea-bound teenage sensation Geovany Quenda is out until March with a broken foot, while Ousmane Diomande, Pedro Goncalves and Eduardo Quaresma are also among the casualties.
Sporting were able to replace the highly-productive Viktor Gyokeres with the Colombian Luis Suarez in the summer. The 28-year-old has notched 20 goals so far this season, which includes five in his last four appearances.
Most goals and assists
Sporting Lisbon
PSG
L. Suarez
(5 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
F. Trincao
(3 Assists)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
Sporting Lisbon - PSG Key Points
- BTTS in four of Sporting’s last six matches across all competitions.
- The hosts have seen BTTS in five of their six UCL fixtures this season.
- PSG have conceded at least once in five of their last seven games.
- PSG are tied with Dortmund for the highest scoring team in the UCL this season with 19 goal in seven games.
- PSG hav kept a clean sheet in only two of their six UCL matches, conceding eight goals.
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Our Sporting Lisbon vs PSG Prediction
PSG have one of the most dangerous attacking front threes in world football but they’ve been somewhat vulnerable on the defensive end lately. Additionally, Sporting have shown they can get on the scoresheet against some of Europe’s elite. They’ve scored a goal against Bayern, Napoli and Juventus this term, all away from home.
The visitors are favourites, but Sporting’s impressive home form in the 2025-26 season makes us cautious of getting involved with the match winners market. Instead, backig this game to be high-scoring looks a good bet. Our Sporting Lisbon vs PSG prediction: BTTS.Sporting Lisbon vs PSG Alternative Predictions
Ousmane Dembele anytime goalscorer
The 28-year-old is at the peak of his powers currently, coming off a magical 2025. He’s carried that good form over into 2026, already scoring four goals in four matches this calendar year.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sporting Lisbon PSG
| Sporting Lisbon vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 4.5 | 4.6 | +2.2% |
| Draw | 4.1 | 4.4 | +7.3% |
| PSG wins | 1.66 | 1.78 | +7.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sporting Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 22.2% and is now 21.7% (-0.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
