Villarreal vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Champions League Predictions
We're in for an intriguing game on Tuesday when Villarreal welcomes Ajax in Game 7 of the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine is practically eliminated, while the Sons of the Gods, who sit just one place above, must win the remaining two games if they hope to qualify. See our best bet in this match prediction below.
Villarreal have been the most disappointing team in the 2025/26 UCL. They've lost five of their only six games, placing them on the same points as last-placed Kairat from Kazakhstan. Yes, six more points from winning the last two games will put them on the same points as Qarabag, Napoli, and Copenhagen in the final two spots of the qualification playoffs.
However, the odds of those three teams not winning a single point are very low, and even then, there are three teams on six points and two on five points. A win for any of them in the last two games will seal the Yellow Submarine's fate. Ajax, on the other hand, is on three points, thanks to a win over Qarabag in their latest game. They, too, have an astronomically low chance of qualifying, but it’s still possible if they win the last two games.
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Villarreal v Ajax Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.37 | 5.8 | 7.4 |
|
|
1.34 | 5.7 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.4 | 7.7 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.75 | 8 |
|
|
1.34 | 5.6 | 7.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Villarreal and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Villarreal vs Ajax match is: Ajax over 0.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/01/2026 between Villarreal and Ajax in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.84% for a win of Villarreal against Ajax with odds of 1.4 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Villarreal vs Ajax is 11.54% with odds of 6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 43.62% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Villarreal with odds of 8.25 at LSbet.
Villarreal - Ajax Prediction and Best Odds:
| Villarreal Ajax Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal wins | 44.84% | 1.4 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.05% | |
| Both Team To Score | 64.29% | |
| Half-time: Ajax / Full-time: Villarreal | 17.35% | 16 at LSbet |
Villarreal vs Ajax Form
Villarreal and Ajax's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
32
|
6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -13 |
|
35
|
1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -13 |
Villarreal and Ajax Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
3 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Dec 2025 - KNVB beker
14 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Dec 2025 - KNVB beker
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
Villarreal - Ajax: Form Analysis
What makes Villarreal’s abysmal Champions League form most intriguing is that the Yellow Submarine is the third-best team in La Liga at the moment.
Villarreal sit in third place, just eight points off the top with a game in hand. However, that form has failed to materialize into anything tangible at the UCL.
Villarreal lost five of their six UCL games, and have now lost the last four in a row.
Their only point won was a 2-2 draw against Juventus in Game 2. Afterwards, it was then back-to-back defeats against Man City, Dortmund, Copenhagen, and even Pafos.
They're also entering this game off another 2-0 defeat to Real Betis. On the other hand, Ajax has been a mixed bag recently. They just drew Go Ahead Eagles in the league right after their 6-0 thrashing from AZ Alkmaar in the KNVB cup game.
However, prior to that was a brilliant run of eight games unbeaten, with seven victories and a draw. Still, their UCL campaign has been equally abysmal. If not for their latest 4-2 win against Qarabag, their Champions League hopes would have been long dashed after losing the first five games.
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Villarreal against Ajax Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Conde
L. Junior
DefenderP. Navarro
MidfielderH. Lopez
D. Parejo
T. Buchanan
G. Mikautadze
G. Moreno
A. Pedraza
R. Pasveer
J. Heerkens
DefenderJ. Sutalo
L. Rosa
G. Alders
K. Itakura
R. Moro
A. Ouazane
R. Bounida
K. Fitz-Jim
S. Steur
O. Edvardsen
Missing players
L. Costa
W. Kambwala
ForwardA. Gonzales
P. Cabanes
S. Berghuis
W. Weghorst
Villarreal & Ajax Squad Analysis
With Real Madrid to play at home next weekend, we'll likely see Villarreal rotate their UCL team against Ajax. So, we might see few to none of the names that have featured for the Yellow Submarines in the previous six UCL games.
A few names we might see are Ayoze Perez and Tani Oluwaseyi up front, as coach Marcelino looks to boost their game time. In contrast, Ajax may bring out the big guns, at least for the first half, which could decide which way this game goes.
With 13 goals and assists in his last 16 games, Mika Godts could start as Ajax desperately needs goals.
Oscar Gloukh could also remain in Fred Grim’s plans after his two goals effectively sealed the win in Ajax's only UCL win over Qarabag (4-1).
Another name likely to book a trip to Spain for Ajax is Kasper Dolberg. He's already in need of game time, and just scored Ajax's second goal against GA Eagles in their latest 2-2 draw.
Dolberg was also the one to score the equalizer in their last UCL game, contributing to their only win of the campaign.
Most goals and assists
Villarreal
Ajax
T. Oluwaseyi
(2 Goals)
O. Gloukh
(3 Goals)
I. Akhomach
(2 Assists)
S. Steur
(1 Assists)
, 
L. Rosa
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Godts
(1 Assists)
,
D. Konadu
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Gaaei
(1 Assists)
Villarreal - Ajax Key Points
- Villarreal have conceded in every single Champions League game this season.
- Villarreal have conceded 13 goals in six UCL games.
- Villarreal conceded 2+ goals in all three home UCL games so far.
- Villarreal have conceded in their last five games, and ten of their last 11 in all competitions.
- Ajax have scored in ten of their last 11 games in all competitions.
- Ajax scored in two of their three away games in this UCL campaign.
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Our Villarreal vs Ajax Prediction
Although Ajax has an incredibly low chance of making it through, everything could change if they can beat Villarreal on Tuesday. We expect Ajax to give it their all and score at least one goal in this game.
They're on a good run at the moment, with goals in ten of their last 11 games. Villarreal, meanwhile, has also conceded in ten of their last 11 games. Hence, our Villarreal vs Ajax prediction is Ajax over 0.5 goals.
Villarreal vs Ajax Alternative Predictions
Ajax wins or draws
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Villarreal Ajax
| Villarreal vs Ajax | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal wins | 1.63 | 1.4 | -14.1% |
| Draw | 4.58 | 6 | +31.0% |
| Ajax wins | 5.49 | 8.25 | +50.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Villarreal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 14.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.3% and is now 71.4% (10.1%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
