Chelsea vs Pafos FC Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Pafos and Chelsea will be facing off for the first time this Wednesday as the league stage of the Champions League enters the penultimate round. For the Cypriot side, Pafos, this will also be the first time ever that they get to meet a Premier League team. Chelsea, meanwhile, have faced one side from Cyprus before—APOEL Nicosia, back in 2009/10. Heading into this match at Stamford Bridge, read on to find our prediction below.
There’s really no doubt who the favorites are in the encounter, with Chelsea having only lost twice in 62 league stage/group phase matches at home. The last time the Blues lost a home match at this stage in Europe was in 2019; they are unbeaten in 17.
Pafos know the magnitude of the challenge ahead as they look to improve on their two wins in seven matches in Europe. They have played three away matches in the Champions League this season but failed to score.
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Chelsea v Pafos FC Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.13 | 10 | 20 |
|
|
1.09 | 11 | 20 |
|
|
1.1 | 9.6 | 23 |
|
|
1.11 | 10 | 19 |
|
|
1.11 | 10 | 18 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Pafos FC?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Pafos FC match is: Chelsea to win to nil.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/01/2026 between Chelsea and Pafos FC in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.61% for a win of Chelsea against Pafos FC with odds of 1.14 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Pafos FC is 20.74% with odds of 11 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.64% chance ⭐ for a win of Pafos FC vs Chelsea with odds of 24 at 888Starz.
Chelsea - Pafos FC Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Pafos FC Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 48.61% | 1.14 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.17% | |
| Both Team To Score | 59.52% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Chelsea | 20% | 4.4 at LSbet |
Chelsea vs Pafos FC Form
Chelsea and Pafos FC's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +7 |
|
26
|
9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
Chelsea and Pafos FC Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
16 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
12 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
7 Jan 2026 - Cyprus Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Dec 2025 - Cypriot First Division
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
7 Jan 2026 - Cyprus Cup
5 Dec 2025 - Cypriot First Division
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
4 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Dec 2025 - Cypriot First Division
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
30 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
9 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
Chelsea - Pafos FC: Form Analysis
Chelsea are placed 13th in the standings, having won three of their six matches as they endure a tough return to the Champions League. They’ve managed 10 points, just two shy of the top eight. The Blues warmed up for this encounter with a convincing 2-0 win against Brentford in the Premier League.
Liam Rosenior’s men will be keen on keeping another clean sheet, as such have been quite rare for them. They have just two in 10 matches, but they’ve been dominant in attack, scoring 2+ in seven of their last 10 outings. Last time out in the Champions League, though, it didn’t go to plan, as they lost 2-1 to Atalanta. At home, in Europe, they have three wins in three.
Chelsea have scored nine and conceded once in the three Champions League home games.
While Chelsea are seeking a fourth straight win at home in this competition, Pafos are hoping for their first on the road. The Cypriot side’s away-day woes are not only confined to a lack of wins; they’ve also failed to score a goal on their travels in Europe so far.
Their case is made worse by the fact that they are coming straight off a loss domestically. Pafos fell 2-0 to Ol. Nicosia, suffering only their third defeat in the last 10 matches. One of the defeats was in their latest Champions League assignment: 2-0 away to Juventus.
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Chelsea against Pafos FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
R. Sanchez
J. Acheampong
T. Chalobah
M. Cucurella
L. Emenalo
A. Santos
T. George
R. Walsh
ForwardJoao Pedro
J. Gittens
M. Guiu
Estevao
P. Petrou
N. Michail
DefenderB. Langa
D. Goldar
D. Luiz
MidfielderP. Caldieraro
D. Quina
M. Bassouamina
G. Michael
N. Dimata
Missing players
T. Adarabioyo
L. Colwill
MidfielderR. Lavia
ForwardM. Mudryk
Chelsea & Pafos FC Squad Analysis
Good squad management means Chelsea will go into this game with their injury lists well managed. Thankfully, the win against Brentford didn’t claim many new casualties. Only Tosin Adarabioyo limped off. He and Malo Gusto are listed as doubtful for this match. None of the Blues’ top players is deemed unavailable for this game.
Brazilian youngster Estevao has been Chelsea’s leading light in Europe. He is their top scorer with three goals and will fancy the chance to add some more. First though, he has to overcome a virus.
Former Chelsea defender David Luiz is listed as questionable for this match.
On the Pafos side, there could be a familiar face returning to Stamford Bridge—David Luiz. The evergreen Brazilian was part of the Chelsea squad that won the 2012 Champions League. He had two spells at the club and also won the Europa League titles in 2013 and 2019.
The man who featured in 248 matches for Chelsea has three goals for Pafos this season. One of them was in the Champions League in a game against Monaco. Away from Luiz, Mislav Orsic will be the visitors’ dangerman. He comes here having created the most chances (13) in the team in the Champions League. He has a goal and an assist.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Pafos FC
E. Fernandez
(3 Goals)
, 
Estevao
(3 Goals)
,
Joao Pedro
(3 Goals)
M. Orsic
(2 Goals)
R. James
(2 Assists)
,
E. Fernandez
(2 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(2 Assists)
M. Orsic
(2 Assists)
Chelsea - Pafos FC Key Points
- Chelsea are unbeaten in two meetings with a Cypriot side.
- Pafos lost twice in their last five Champions League outings.
- Pafos failed to score in their opening three away UCL matches.
- In 62 home league/group stage matches in Europe, Chelsea lost just twice.
- Chelsea have conceded only once in three home UCL league stage matches.
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Our Chelsea vs Pafos FC Prediction
Chelsea seem to have an easy job here as they look to boost their hopes of qualifying for the next stage. Their target being the top right, the Blues will head here looking to build on their already strong form at home.
Chelsea are on three wins in three at home in this competition and have only conceded once while scoring nine times. Meanwhile, they face an opponent that hasn’t scored an away goal in three outings in the Champions League. It is with such numbers that our prediction for Chelsea v Pafos is for Chelsea to win to nil.
Chelsea vs Pafos FC Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
The last time Chelsea hosted a Cypriot side, the match ended with four goals scored. That was a 2-2 draw with APOEL, a result that will have no significance here but is worth mentioning. It is important to note because three of Chelsea’s last four home matches had at least three goals scored.
They only had one clean sheet in the four home matches but scored twice in each. So our next prediction here would be for over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Pafos FC
| Chelsea vs Pafos FC | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.3 | 1.14 | -12.3% |
| Draw | 6.14 | 11 | +79.2% |
| Pafos FC wins | 12.2 | 24 | +96.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 12.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.9% and is now 87.7% (10.8%)
Chelsea vs Pafos FC - FAQs
The Chelsea v Pafos match will be played on Wednesday, 21st January.
The Chelsea v Pafos match will be staged at Stamford Bridge, in London.
The Chelsea v Pafos match will be aired in the UK on TNT Sports and Amazon Prime. If you are in Cyprus, you can catch it on CYTA, and on Sportytrader, there will be live updates for this and other Champions League matches.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
