Real Madrid vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Real Madrid are set to host Monaco in their penultimate game of the league phase in the UEFA Champions League. This being one of the biggest games of the round, it will be hosted by Real Madrid, as they look to stay in the top eight. Monaco are 11 places lower than Madrid, and both sides will badly want a win here. Read on to find our prediction for the match.
These teams have only met twice in the UCL, and that was over 20 years ago. Monaco progressed to the semis back then after a 5-5 aggregate draw. They will hope for another positive outcome, though Real Madrid have only lost once in 18 matches against French opposition, winning 13.
Meanwhile, Monaco will come into this game having beaten Spanish sides in their latest two meetings with La Liga opponents. The French side is also undefeated in five Champions League matches, winning two.
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Real Madrid v Monaco Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.33 | 6 | 8.4 |
|
|
1.3 | 6.05 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.8 | 8.7 |
|
|
1.3 | 6 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.3 | 6 | 8.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Monaco?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Monaco match is: more than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/01/2026 between Real Madrid and Monaco in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.96% for a win of Real Madrid against Monaco with odds of 1.35 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Monaco is 9.04% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.01% chance ⭐ for a win of Monaco vs Real Madrid with odds of 9.25 at LSbet.
Real Madrid - Monaco Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Monaco Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 60.96% | 1.35 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.86% | |
| Both Team To Score | 54.76% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 25.78% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
Real Madrid vs Monaco Form
Real Madrid and Monaco's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +9 |
|
21
|
10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -6 |
Real Madrid and Monaco Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
Real Madrid - Monaco: Form Analysis
The opening six league stage matches in the Champions League have seen Real Madrid win four and lose twice. They will want to only pick the positives in a game that comes at a shaky period for them. Los Blancos have lost their lead in La Liga, got beaten in the Super Cup, and are eliminated from the Copa del Rey.
On top of it all, Xabi Alonso recently had to be let go. The new man in charge, Alvaro Arbeloa, has already tasted cup elimination and will want to avoid another defeat. Playing at home on Saturday wasn’t easy, as Real were booed by their own fans. They would, however, deliver a 2-0 win over Levante to stay in the title chase.
Real Madrid lost their last league stage game at home, against Manchester City.
Monaco’s domestic form and in Europe have been in stark contrast. They are really doing badly at home, but in the Champions League, they’ve only lost once in the six matches. Monaco are unbeaten in five UCL matches, winning twice, and that is their longest undefeated run in the competition.
Monaco are coming off a 3-1 loss at home to Lorient and would do with an away game in Europe. Les Monegasques will know that Real Madrid are unbeaten in 17 of 18 home games against French sides.
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Real Madrid against Monaco Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Lunin
F. Gonzalez
DefenderD. Alaba
F. Garcia
D. Carvajal
D. Meso
P. Fortuny
D. Ceballos
G. Garcia
J. Stawiecki
Y. Lienard
DefenderK. Ouattara
S. Idumbo-Muzambo
M. Coulibaly
A. Bamba
I. Toure
S. Nibombe
ForwardG. Ilenikhena
M. Biereth
L. Michal
Missing players
A. Rudiger
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
A. Carreras
ForwardB. Diaz
Rodrygo
L. Hradecky
DefenderW. Faes
K. Diatta
M. Salisu
C. Mawissa
MidfielderP. Pogba
T. Minamino
L. Camara
P. Cabral
ForwardP. Brunner
Real Madrid & Monaco Squad Analysis
Kylian Mbappe will be one of the players to watch in this game. The Frenchman’s senior career started at Monaco, and he will want to push a thorn right into their flesh. In six Champions League matches he has scored nine goals and has a good record against Monaco.
In 14 appearances against the French side, he has 11 goals and four assists. While the hosts will be very positive in attack, defensively they are struggling. Real Madrid have five players on the injury list, all being defenders. They are Antonio Rudiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy, Alvaro Carreras, and Eder Militao.
Balogun is Monaco’s leading scorer in Europe this season with three goals.
Monaco are also dealing with key injuries and will hope to come through this without fresh ones. Les Monegasques will miss at least seven players here. The most notable of them is Paul Pogba, who is nursing a calf injury, while Takumi Minamino is also out with a knee injury.
On a more positive note, Monaco can bank on Folarin Balogun to deliver in attack, having netted three in the competition this term.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Monaco
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
F. Balogun
(5 Goals)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
M. Akliouche
(3 Assists)
Real Madrid - Monaco Key Points
- The only two meetings between these sides yielded 10 goals.
- Monaco scored but conceded three goals in two of their last three outings.
- Real Madrid's last five competitive outings produced 21 goals.
- A total of 12 goals were scored in Monaco’s last three matches.
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Our Real Madrid vs Monaco Prediction
Monaco conceded four goals in their only previous visit to Real Madrid in history. At the end of a two-legged affair, though, each side had scored five goals. With both sides meeting at the back of their defensive woes, we won’t be far off the mark going for another high-scoring match.
Real Madrid have scored 13 times in the last five matches, but they’ve been poor defensively, rarely keping clean sheets. It is a similar case at Monaco, who have also failed to keep an away clean sheet in five outings. Our prediction for Real Madrid v Monaco is for more than 3.5 goals.
Real Madrid vs Monaco Alternative Predictions
Kylian Mbappe to score
In our second prediction, we will be backing Kylian Mbappe for any time scorer. The Frenchman has enjoyed a prolific run against his former employers and will see another such chance here. In 14 meetings with Monaco, he produced an incredible 15 goal contributions. This season he is the top scorer and is a likely scorer here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Monaco
| Real Madrid vs Monaco | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 1.33 | 1.35 | +1.5% |
| Draw | 6.15 | 6.4 | +4.1% |
| Monaco wins | 9.9 | 9.25 | -6.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 75.2% and is now 74.1% (-1.1%)
Real Madrid vs Monaco - FAQs
The Real Madrid v Monaco match will be played on Tuesday, 20th January.
The Real Madrid v Monaco match will be played at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid.
If following from France, this match will be available on Canal+, while Spanish fans can get it via Telfonica. On SportyTrader we will have the match updates for the match and other Champions League fixtures.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
