Marseille vs Liverpool Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Joseph King | in Champions League Predictions
We’re down to the penultimate round of fixtures in the League Phase of the UEFA Champions League as Marseille hosts Liverpool on Wednesday. Les Phoceens are sitting in 16th place with nine points while the Reds are ninth on 12 points. Check out our match prediction below!
After losing three of their first four matches in this year’s UCL, Marseille have come storming back as they look to secure a spot in the top 24. Two wins from their last two Champions League matches has OM with a three-point buffer on 25th-place Benfica. The 1993 champions are competing in the new-look League Phase for the first time since the format was changed in the 2024-25 campaign.
Liverpool will look to solidify their top-eight spot and thus automatic entry to the round of 16. The season hasn’t gone as expected for the reigning English champions, who find themselves 15 points behind leaders Arsenal in the Premier League. They’ll be pinning their remaining hopes on the Champions League, but have failed to make it past the round of 16 since finishing as runners-up in the 2021-22 campaign.
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Marseille v Liverpool Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.5 | 3.85 | 2.02 |
|
|
3.78 | 3.92 | 1.87 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.94 | 1.92 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.9 | 1.85 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.85 | 1.89 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Liverpool?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Liverpool match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/01/2026 between Marseille and Liverpool in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 26.18% for a win of Marseille against Liverpool with odds of 3.8 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Liverpool is 33.41% with odds of 4 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.41% chance ⭐ for a win of Liverpool vs Marseille with odds of 2.04 at 888Starz.
Marseille - Liverpool Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Liverpool Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool wins | 40.41% | 2.04 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.13% | 1.55 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score: No | 54.76% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Liverpool | 19.93% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Liverpool Form
Marseille and Liverpool's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
18 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +12 |
|
25
|
9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 |
Marseille and Liverpool Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Jan 2026 - French Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Trophée des Champions
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Jan 2026 - French Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Trophée des Champions
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
12 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
12 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Marseille - Liverpool: Form Analysis
After losing the Trophee des Champions on penalties to PSG, Marseille have responded positively. They put nine past lower-league Bayeux FC and followed that up with a 5-2 away win over Angers on Saturday.
Marseille were trending towards a League Phase exit after managing just three points from their first four UCL matches. However, a home win over Newcastle (2-1) followed up with an away win over USG (3-2) has Les Phoceens right back in the hunt.
At home this season, Marseille have amassed an 8-2-2 record but will face one of their biggest tests so far with Liverpool coming to town.
In their last five matches across all competitions, Roberto De Zerbi’s side has found the back of the net an incredible 22 times.
Liverpool are coming off a massively disappointing 1-1 home draw with Burnley at the weekend. The result extended the Reds unbeaten run to 12 matches across all competitions, although four of the last five have ended in stalemates.
The visitors will be hoping to replicate the kind of performance that they showed in their last Champions League match, beating Italian giants Inter Milan 1-0 away from home. Around 15-16 points will likely be the magic number to seal a spot in the top eight. On 12, Liverpool are well-positioned as they have Qarabag at home in the final matchday.
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Marseille against Liverpool Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Van Neck
J. De Lange
DefenderC. Egan Riley
A. Doubal
MidfielderB. Nadir
T. Mmadi
A. Gomes
A. Vermeeren
D. Bakola
M. O'Riley
ForwardP. Aubameyang
I. Paixao
G. Mamardashvili
F. Woodman
DefenderA. Robertson
MidfielderF. Chiesa
C. Jones
T. Nyoni
W. Endo
ForwardC. Gakpo
R. Ngumoha
Missing players
N. Aguerd
MidfielderQ. Timber
ForwardE. Nwaneri
C. Bradley
S. Bajcetic
G. Leoni
Marseille & Liverpool Squad Analysis
Marseille boss Roberto De Zerbi has close to a clean bill of health, with only defender Benjamin Pavard and Nayef Aguerd expected to miss out on Wednesday’s clash.
De Zerbi might opt to return Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to a starting role for this match ahead of Amine Gouiri. The 36-year-old Aubameyang has 7 goal contributions (3G 4A) in six Champions League appearances this season.
Liverpool will have to stick tight to Marseille right winger Mason Greenwood, who has been a revelation since joining French football in 2024. The former Manchester United man is on a red-hot run, finding the net in 6 of his last 7 appearances, totalling 9 goals during that stretch.
Greenwood finished with 22 goals last season and is already up to 20 in 26 appearances in 2025-26.
Arne Slot has four players on the injury list for this match: Conor Bradley (knee), Giovanni Leoni (ACL), Alexander Isak (leg) and Stefan Bajcetic (hamstring). We could see the return of Mohamed Salah to the Liverpool team following Egypt's fourth-place finish in the African Cup of Nations.
Florian Wirtz was on the scoresheet against Burnley and has quietly been putting together a solid run of form after a difficult start to his Liverpool career. The 22-year-old has now contributed 6 goal contributions (4G 2A) in his last seven outings across all competitions.
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Liverpool
I. Paixao
(4 Goals)
D. Szoboszlai
(5 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(4 Assists)
D. Szoboszlai
(4 Assists)
Marseille - Liverpool Key Points
- Over 2.5 has come through in five of Marseille’s six UCL matches.
- There has been an average of 4.25 total goals scored in Marseille’s last 12 matches.
- Liverpool’s six UCL fixtures this season have seen an average of 3.17 goals scored.
- Liverpool rank third in expected goals (14.2) and fifth in big chances created (30) in the 2025-26 Champions League.
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Our Marseille vs Liverpool Prediction
This is an important match for both teams, so expect each side to bring their best to this outing. Marseille have become a high-octane offensive unit under De Zerbi’s leadership while Liverpool’s defensive frailties have been put on full display this season.
While they may be vulnerable at the back, there is an abundance of attacking talent in this Liverpool team with the likes of Ekitike, Szoboszlai, Wirtz and potentially Mohamed Salah. We should be in for a fun one in the south of France with goals a plenty. Our Marseille vs Liverpool prediction is more than 2.5 goals.Marseille vs Liverpool Alternative Predictions
Mason Greenwood anytime goalscorer
The former Manchester United man is having a fantastic spell in French football and has been Marseille’s most dangerous attacking weapon over the last two seasons. He’s taken his game to another level in the 2025-26 season, scoring 20 goals in 26 appearances across all competitions. He’s found the net in 6 of his last 7 overall.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Liverpool
| Marseille vs Liverpool | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 3.35 | 3.8 | +13.4% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 4 | +11.1% |
| Liverpool wins | 2.03 | 2.04 | +0.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Liverpool is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 0.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 49.3% and is now 49.0% (-0.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
