St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
St Pauli will be eyeing three crucial points to stay in the Bundesliga relegation play-off spot on matchday 32 as they face Mainz, who need one point to secure an 18th straight top-flight season. This match in Hamburg between the 16th-placed Neighbourhood Kickers and the 10th-placed 05ers comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
With 26 points (W6, D8, L17), the hosts are just one point above the automatic relegation spots. Mainz have 34 points (W8, D10, L13) and need to avoid defeat here to be assured safety.
St Pauli suffered a setback last weekend when they lost 2-0 away at Heidenheim, extending their unbeaten run to seven league games (D3, L4). This run meant that they could still be dragged into the bottom two.
While a win here would be helpful, St Pauli haven’t won their last four home league games (D2, L2), although three wins in six games prior to that sequence is an encouraging sign.
Mainz blew away a 3-0 lead to lose 4-3 at home to champions Bayern Munich last weekend for a second defeat in three Bundesliga games (D1). This poor sequence has erased the positives of three consecutive wins, but they can confirm safety with just one point. That’s something the 05ers achieved in seven of their last nine away league games (W3, D4, L2).
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
St. Pauli v 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.85 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.26 | 2.61 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.34 | 2.52 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.3 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.68 | 3.3 | 2.58 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and 1 Fsv Mainz 05?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/05/2026 between St. Pauli and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.14% for a win of St. Pauli against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 2.91 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is 35.71% with odds of 3.47 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.15% chance ⭐ for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli with odds of 2.63 at Bet365.
St. Pauli - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 39.15% | 2.63 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | 18.39% | 6.25 at LSbet |
St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Form
St. Pauli and 1 Fsv Mainz 05's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
40 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 |
|
18
|
26 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 |
St. Pauli and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
16 Apr 2026 - Conference League
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
16 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
B. Voll
DefenderD. Nemeth
A. Dzwigala
C. Metcalfe
L. Oppie
ForwardA. Ceesay
M. Kaars
T. Hara
M. Rasmussen
R. Zentner
DefenderA. Caci
S. Bell
MidfielderL. Maloney
S. Kawasaki
N. Veratschnig
D. Kohr
A. Sieb
N. Weiper
Missing players
S. Spari
MidfielderM. Pereira Lage
J. Sands
R. Jones
M. Leitsch
MidfielderL. Jae-sung
D. Gleiber
ForwardB. Hollerbach
S. Katompa Mvumpa
K. Bos
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
1 Fsv Mainz 05
D. Sinani
(5 Goals)
N. Amiri
(12 Goals)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
B. Hollerbach
(3 Assists)
,
D. da Costa
(3 Assists)
, 
S. Becker
(3 Assists)
St. Pauli - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Key Points
- Mainz have kept only three clean sheets all season long, while St Pauli have five.
- Seven of Mainz’s last nine Bundesliga games saw both teams score goals.
- Mainz conceded goals in 14 of their 15 away league games this season.
- Five of St Pauli’s last seven home league games saw both teams score goals.
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Our St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction
The reverse fixture ended 0-0 in December, but this outing comes with a lot of incentive for the home side. A loss could end St Pauli’s chances of direct safety, while dragging them into the bottom two relegation spots. Mainz’s season practically ended with their exit from the Conference League, and all they can target is a finish inside the top ten.
The game is likely to be open looking at their recent games, so our St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli 1 Fsv Mainz 05
| St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 3.05 | 2.91 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.47 | +3.0% |
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 2.56 | 2.63 | +2.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.1% and is now 38.0% (-1.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
