Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
The final curtain on Saturday in the Premier League comes down at St. James’ Park, with Newcastle United taking on Aston Villa. All of the Magpies’ home games this season have ended with both teams scoring, and we are going for that trend to continue here as our main prediction!
After going unbeaten in their first five matches under Matthias Jaissle, Newcastle have now suffered two heavy defeats in their last three, including a 4-1 hammering at Coventry last weekend. The Geordies enter this weekend in 11th place, but a victory here could take them into the top six if results elsewhere go in their favour.
With only five points in six matches, Aston Villa could end Matchday 7 in the drop zone if they lose this clash. However, the Villans were sublime against Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday night and came away with a 2-0 win against this opponent in this very fixture back in January last season. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Newcastle v Aston Villa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.18 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
|
|
2.26 | 3.86 | 3.19 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.70 | 3.07 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.70 | 3.07 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.70 | 3.07 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Aston Villa match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/10/2026 between Newcastle and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.86% for a win of Newcastle against Aston Villa with odds of 2.28 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Aston Villa is 28.85% with odds of 3.86 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.3% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Newcastle with odds of 3.19 at 1xbet.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Form
Newcastle and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 |
|
16
|
5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 |
Newcastle and Aston Villa Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2026 - Premier League
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
14 Sept 2026 - Premier League
8 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
26 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2026 - Premier League
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2026 - Premier League
14 Sept 2026 - Premier League
8 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Oct 2026 - Champions League
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
2 Oct 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
16 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Oct 2026 - Champions League
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
31 Aug 2026 - Premier League
7 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
16 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
23 Aug 2026 - Premier League
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2024 - Premier League
30 Jan 2024 - Premier League
Newcastle - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Despite entering last weekend’s match as favourites, Newcastle United were handed a 4-1 hiding by Coventry on the road, their second league defeat by that scoreline in the last three gameweeks.
The Magpies finished their last match with 1.84 xG, three big chances created, 38 touches in the opposition box, and 19 shots at goal. They are now averaging 1.19 xG per 90 in the EPL this season.
Newcastle have yet to lose a home game in any competition (W2 D2) and have scored two or more goals in each of their four matches at St. James’ Park this term. However, they have also conceded two goals in three games during this period.
Newcastle have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 home matches in all competitions!
Meanwhile, after winning only one of their first five games this season, Aston Villa have hit their stride in recent weeks, now unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions entering MD7.
The Villans smashed in six unanswered goals at home against Fenerbahce in the Champions League in midweek, taking their goal tally to 17 across their last five matches (average 3.4 per game).
The Lions have split their three away league games this season (W1 D1 L1). However, they are currently unbeaten in their last four across all competitions and scored three goals in each of their last three matches on the road.
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 5 - 1
Substitutes
N. Pope
DefenderD. Burn
A. Dedic
F. Schar
MidfielderS. Steur
A. Bamba
ForwardW. Osula
B. Toure
Joelinton
M. Bizot
J. Wright
DefenderT. Mings
MidfielderE. Buendia
L. Goretzka
J. Gomes
L. Bogarde
ForwardAlysson
T. Abraham
A. Garnacho
Missing players
E. Jaouen
DefenderT. Livramento
MidfielderJ. Ramsey
ForwardA. Elanga
I. Maatsen
M. Ruggeri
MidfielderA. Onana
M. Cisse
ForwardG. Hemmings
Newcastle & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Newcastle have a handful of injury concerns for this match, with Anthony Elanga, Ewen Jaouen, and former Villa man Jacob Ramsey ruled out, while Bazouma Toure and Tino Livramento are listed as major doubts.
On a more positive note, Dan Burn, Amar Dedic, Joelinton, and William Osula all got minutes at the CBS Arena last week. However, Jaissle admitted that the quartet are still working their way back to full fitness after the match.
Harvey Barnes could be one to watch for the Magpies this weekend. The 28-year-old has recorded five direct goal contributions in his last three home games in all competitions, scoring three and providing two assists.
Nicolas Jackson has four goal contributions in his last three matches for Villa!
Jackson bagged a brace in the Lions’ demotion of Fenerbahce in midweek, and has now recorded a direct goal contribution in each of his last five starts for club and country since September 19.
Matteo Ruggeri and Ian Maatsen are both sidelined through injury, meaning Emery does not have a specialist left-back available for this match. Aaron Wan-Bissaka is expected to fill in once again as he did on Wednesday night.
Amadou Onana is a long-term absentee, while George Hemmings and Brian Madjo are listed as doubts. Leon Goretzka could make his Premier League debut here after coming off the bench in midweek.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Aston Villa
J. Willock
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Elanga
(2 Goals)
N. Jackson
(2 Goals)
H. Barnes
(2 Assists)
J. McGinn
(2 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(2 Assists)
Newcastle and Aston Villa Stats in Premier League
Newcastle - Aston Villa Key Points
- Five of Newcastle’s six league games this season ended with both teams scoring.
- Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 15 home matches in all competitions.
- Newcastle and Aston Villa are averaging 1.75 and 1.66 xGA per league game this season.
- Each of Aston Villa’s last three league games ended with both teams scoring.
- Aston Villa have scored three goals in each of their last three away matches in all competitions.
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Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction
While Newcastle United have suffered two heavy defeats in recent weeks, both of those losses were on the road. At home, the Magpies are still unbeaten this season, but they have conceded seven goals in their four matches at St. James’ Park.
After a slow start to the season, Aston Villa are now riding a wave of confidence, unbeaten in five across all competitions (W4 D1). The Villans have scored three goals in each of their last three away games, and we feel they will find the back of the net in this one as well. Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction is BTTS.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Draw
Harvey Barnes 1+ shot on target
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa - FAQs
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Aston Villa will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
