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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Toronto Predictions
Third seed Lorenzo Musetti bids to reach the last 16 of the Canadian Open. Round three of this outdoor hard court Masters tournament sees him take on 26th-seeded Alex Michelsen. Here's our match prediction.
The winner goes into the last 16 and will meet either Reilly Opelka or Learner Tien, both of whom are unseeded.
Musetti is tenth in the live rankings but sixth in the ATP Race. The 23-year-old had a straight sets win over James Duckworth in his opening match, ending a run of three successive losses.
Just one hard court quarter-final has been reached by the Italian this year with an overall record of seven wins and five defeats. A win here will take him into the fourth round of the Canadian Open for the first time.
This is the first match between these two players. Alex Michelsen had also been on a three-match losing run before his second round win in Toronto. He beat qualifier Tomas Barrios Vera in straight sets.
Michelsen is 33rd in the live rankings and even a win here won't take him into the top 32, so he may well be unseeded for the US Open. His best run on hard courts this year was making it to the last four in Delray Beach.
We tip over 21.5 games in this match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Musetti v Alex Michelsen Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.57 | 2.38 |
|
|
1.57 | 2.38 |
|
|
1.55 | 2.4 |
|
|
1.53 | 2.37 |
|
|
1.52 | 2.55 |
|
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Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen match is: over 21.5 games to be played.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen game on 31/07/2025 of the current ATP Toronto season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 60.9% chance to win against Alex Michelsen according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.57.
- Alex Michelsen has a 39.1% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 2.55 at Unibet.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 60.9 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 60.9 % |
| Alex Michelsen | 39.1 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Alex Michelsen Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
29 Jul 2025 - ATP Toronto
22 Jul 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
6 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
3 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
1 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
29 Jul 2025 - ATP Toronto
22 Jul 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
27 Jun 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
26 Jun 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
25 Jun 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
Lorenzo Musetti - Alex Michelsen Key Points
- Over the shorter format, three of Michelsen's last four matches have had over 21.5 games played in them.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would improve the chances of our prediction being a winning one. Michelsen has played one in four of his last five matches.
- Four of Musetti's last five best-of-three-sets matches have had over 21.5 games played in them.
- Nine of Musetti's last 12 matches have seen either a 7-5 or 7-6 set played.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Prediction
This is a tricky match for Lorenzo Musetti in round three of the Canadian Open. He is sixth in the ATP Live Race but has his clay court achievements to thank for that high ranking. He's not been so consistent on hard courts with just one quarter-final reached in 2025.
Alex Michelsen is chasing a seeding at the US Open so will want as many wins as possible in this Masters event. He has a good hard court record and our Lorenzo Musetti v Alex Michelsen prediction is over 21.5 games to be played.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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