Tip Italy W - Brazil W
Italy weren’t fancied by many to make a great deal of headway before the start of the tournament, though Milena Bertolini’s women have impressed. They got the better of a very good Australia side first time out, while they moved through the gears to beat Jamaica by five goals to nil on match-day two. After two confidence-boosting wins, the Italians have emerged as dark horses and are thus not to be taken lightly. The Italians were by no means great on match-day one, but they did what Italians often do when it comes to tournament football and that’s find a way to get the job done without being overly easy on the eye. After their fought off the Aussies, Bertolini’s side really started to play on match-day two. Not only did they keep a clean sheet, which wasn’t completely their own doing as the Jamaicans were wasteful in the final third, but they offered a tremendous amount going forward, posting 3.63 expected goals for. If they can replicate such attacking efforts against an ageing Brazil side that looked somewhat leggy against the Australians on match-day two, then Italy have an excellent chance of topping the group courtesy on three wins. Brazil also looked useful against the Jamaicans, though they were unable to get a result against Australia. Against a relatively undisciplined Jamaica side, Brazil’s limitations weren’t exposed, though their ageing squad was put under the microscope against a useful Aussie team last time out. Going forward, as they scored twice, Vadao’s women offered a threat, though when push came to shove, they looked weak in defence. From a betting point of view, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ makes plenty of appeal ahead of this fixture. Not only have both sides been involved in high-scoring games already in France, but the underlying numbers produced by both suggests that there should be no shortage of chances created at Stade du Hainaut on Tuesday evening.
Key points Italy W - Brazil W
Over 2.5 Goals makes plenty of appeal ahead of this fixture.
Italy averages 2.13 expected goals for and Brazil averages 2.36.
Brazil have won the previous three meetings against Italy.
Conclusion Italy W - Brazil W
Ultimately, with Italy averaging 2.13 expected goals for, and with Brazil averaging 2.36 for, not to mention the fact that there’s been an average of well over 3.00 expected goals in each of their four combined games at this tournament, it looks as though there’s a slightly greater chance of three or more goals being scored than the current prices would have us believe, so a punt on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ represents a chunk of value. This will be the fourth renewal of this fixture. Brazil have won each of the previous three. When the pair last met, back in 2016, Brazil won by three goals to one.
Italy W Brazil W Prediction published on June 17, 2019