England - Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Premier League Predictions
The marquee fixture of matchday four in the English Premier League sees Manchester City hosting Manchester United on Sunday afternoon. The Citizens come into this one sitting 13th in the standings, while the Red Devils are eighth. Read on for our match prediction!
Despite being just three games into the new season, there is a sense that the upcoming Manchester derby is a must-win for the blue half of the city. Pep Guardiola’s side has lost their last two outings, and they desperately need all three points to kickstart a stalling 2025-26 campaign.
Manchester United, meanwhile, have very little room for error themselves lest they fall further behind in the race for the top four, of which they currently trail by two points. United ran out 2-1 winners in this fixture last season and are now seeking two consecutive wins at the Etihad for the first time in over four years. Who will come out on top in the 197th Manchester derby? Strap in because we’re set for a high-stakes match, which is sure to be fascinating viewing for both fanbases as well as the neutrals!
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The Best Betting Odds for Manchester City v Manchester United Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.75 | 4 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.8 | 4 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.75 | 3.9 | 4 |
|
|
1.83 | 4 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.74 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Manchester United?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Manchester United match is: Manchester United double chance.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/09/2025 between Manchester City and Manchester United in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.98% for a win of Manchester City against Manchester United with odds of 1.83 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Manchester United is 20.51% with odds of 4.11 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.52% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester United vs Manchester City with odds of 4.39 at 22bet.
Manchester City vs Manchester United Form
Manchester City and Manchester United's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
|
13
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Manchester City and Manchester United Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
26 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
30 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
22 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
20 May 2025 - Premier League
2 May 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
25 May 2025 - Premier League
17 May 2025 - FA Cup
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
27 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
24 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
24 Aug 2025 - Premier League
30 May 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
28 May 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 May 2025 - Europa League
16 May 2025 - Premier League
Manchester City vs Manchester United Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Apr 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2024 - Premier League
10 Aug 2024 - Community Shield
25 May 2024 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2024 - Premier League
29 Oct 2023 - Premier League
Manchester City - Manchester United: Form Analysis
After a fantastic performance in a 4-0 away win over Wolves to open the season, things have quickly gone south for the 10-time Premier League champions.
A 2-0 home loss to Tottenham was followed up with a 2-1 away defeat to Brighton just prior to the international break. The Citizens gave up a 1-0 lead in their most recent match, conceding the losing goal in the 89th minute of play.
Three points from three matches marks the worst ever start to a season in Pep Guardiola’s career.
As they return to the Etihad, they’ll be hoping their excellent home results over the years will be enough to give them a much-needed lift. City have won 75.9% of their home league matches since the 2022/23 season (W44, D9, L5).
The visitors will attempt to build on the momentum gained in their 3-2 home win over Burnley in matchday three. They left it late, with a stoppage time Bruno Fernandes penalty ultimately securing them the full three points.
Still, they were the dominant team and would have counted themselves unlucky to have walked away with anything other than a win in that match. After their opening day loss to Arsenal, United now have two draws and one win in their last three matches after 90 minutes.
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Manchester City vs Manchester United last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
M. Bettinelli
DefenderJ. Gvardiol
A. Khusanov
R. Lewis
R. Ait Nouri
J. Stones
MidfielderM. Kovacic
Savinho
R. Cherki
N. O'Reilly
ForwardO. Marmoush
L. Martinez
D. Dalot
MidfielderM. Mount
ForwardM. Cunha
Manchester City & Manchester United Squad Analysis
Manager Pep Guardiola has seen his team once again hit hard by the injury bug and could be missing no fewer than nine players for this game. Among them are Rayan Cherki, Omar Marmoush, Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol.
On a positive note, Erling Haaland looks to be in top form and netted five goals for his country in Norway’s 11-1 humiliation of Moldova during the international break.
Rodri made his first Premier League start in 343 days against Brighton.
The Spaniard played the full 90 minutes in that match and generally looked solid, completing 87% of his passes, creating one chance and making 10 defensive contributions. In goal, new signing Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to make his City debut after they were able to secure his signature for €35 million.
Ruben Amorim will be unable to call upon one of his new signings as well, with Matheus Cunha set to miss out. He will be joined on the sidelines by Mason Mount and Diogo Dalot. It will be interesting to see how Amorim decides to line up his team ahead of this one.
Bryan Mbeumo could be pushed up to lone striker role which could see Bruno Fernandes slot in at one of the #10 positions in the 3-4-2-1 formation, instead of playing deeper. Alternatively, Amorim could opt to go with Benjamin Sesko up top and bring in Amad Diallo, while keeping Bruno in the double-pivot alongside Casemiro.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Manchester United
E. Haaland
(3 Goals)
B. Mbeumo
(2 Goals)
T. Reijnders
(1 Assists)
,
O. Bobb
(1 Assists)
, 
R. Lewis
(1 Assists)
, 
O. Marmoush
(1 Assists)
D. Dalot
(1 Assists)
Manchester City - Manchester United Key Points
- Manchester United have avoided defeat in their last four straight meetings with Manchester City after 90 minutes.
- The visitors won this fixture 2-1 last year.
- Manchester City have tasted defeat in their last two outings.
- United have only been beaten once this season in four attempts after the full time whistle.
- Manchester United rank first in the Premier League in expected goals at 6.80.
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Our Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction
Manchester City find themselves in a tough spot. They’ve really been struggling at the start of the season and it isn’t simply a case of a few bad bounces. Manchester United, meanwhile, rank first in expected goals in the Premier League, suggesting that they have the quality to breach this shaky City rearguard.
With Amorim seeming to know what it takes to get the better of Pep, we like backing the visitors to avoid defeat in what could be a tight match. Our Manchester City vs Manchester United prediction: Manchester United double chance.
Manchester City vs Manchester United - Other Interesting Predictions
Mbeumo anytime goalscorer
Bryan Mbeumo scored in his last two outings for Manchester United, which included opening his Premier League account for the Red Devils. In that match against Burnley, Mbeumo managed three shots and had nine touches in the opponent’s box.
With Cunha missing out, there’s a chance that Mbeumo starts in the #9 role, which will increase his chances at getting on the scoresheet. Even if he should start in his preferred role behind the striker, the Cameroonian will be United’s main attacking threat in transition, where they should be able to do most of their damage.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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