Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
One town, two colours, three massive Premier League points on the line - Matchday 22 kicks off with a monumental Mancunian Derby - it’s Manchester United facing Manchester City at Old Trafford. The Red Devils are seventh in the league standings, while the Citizens are in second place. Check out our match prediction below!
It has been a tough start to the New Year for Man United, as they enter this match winless in 2026, and with routes to silverware and European qualification running thin after being dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend. Club legend Michael Carrick now steps into the hot seat for the remainder of the season, and he has the chance to change the mood inside Old Trafford by silencing their noisy neighbours this weekend.
However, the Sky Blues have not tasted defeat in any competition since late November and bullied their cross-town rivals in the 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in September. Pep Guardiola’s side also needs three points here to keep the pressure on Arsenal, who are now six points clear at the summit of the league standings. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Manchester United v Manchester City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.2 | 3.8 | 2.22 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.76 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.38 | 3.72 | 2.04 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.7 | 2.12 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester United and Manchester City?
Our prediction for the Manchester United vs Manchester City match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/01/2026 between Manchester United and Manchester City in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 14.66% for a win of Manchester United against Manchester City with odds of 3.66 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester United vs Manchester City is 35.9% with odds of 3.95 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester City vs Manchester United with odds of 2.3 at Bet365.
Manchester United - Manchester City Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester United Manchester City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 49.44% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.01% | |
| Both Team To Score | 63.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Manchester City/Manchester City | 21.25% | 3.75 at Bet365 |
Manchester United vs Manchester City Form
Manchester United and Manchester City's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
78 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 |
|
3
|
71 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 |
Manchester United and Manchester City Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4 Dec 2025 - Premier League
24 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
8 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Manchester United vs Manchester City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Sept 2025 - Premier League
6 Apr 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2024 - Premier League
10 Aug 2024 - Community Shield
25 May 2024 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2024 - Premier League
Manchester United - Manchester City: Form Analysis
Darren Fletcher’s short stint as caretaker manager of Manchester United proved disappointing, as he oversaw a 1-1 draw to Burnley before losing 2-1 to Brighton in the FA Cup last weekend.
The Red Devils have now failed to win any of their last four games across all competitions (D3 L1) and have only managed to keep a single clean sheet since the start of October. They have shipped 32 league goals this term, the most of the top 14 teams in the league table.
The hosts have taken 18 points from 10 home games this season (W5 D3 L2). However, they’ve only won one of their last five at Old Trafford - a significant dip after winning four of their first five on home soil at the start of the campaign.
Seven of the last eight Prem matches between these sides ended with over 2.5 goals!
Meanwhile, Manchester City were unable to make up ground on the Gunners on MD21, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton - their third stalemate in the top flight in succession.
However, the Citizens bounced back impressively in the cup competitions over the past week. They smashed 10 goals past Exeter in the FA Cup before taking a 2-0 first-leg lead against Newcastle in the EFL Cup semi-final on Tuesday.
The visitors are also unbeaten in their last six away games across all competitions (W5 D1), but they were held to a goalless draw at this venue last season.
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Manchester United against Manchester City Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
A. Bayindir
DefenderA. Heaven
L. Yoro
T. Malacia
MidfielderM. Ugarte
M. Mount
J. Fletcher
ForwardM. Cunha
B. Sesko
J. Trafford
M. Bettinelli
DefenderN. OReilly
R. Ait-Nouri
S. Mfuni
MidfielderR. McAidoo
T. Reijnders
R. Cherki
D. Mukasa
Missing players
M. De Ligt
J. Stones
R. Dias
J. Gvardiol
MidfielderM. Kovacic
N. Gonzalez
Manchester United & Manchester City Squad Analysis
In his first game back at the club, Carrick will be able to call upon Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo, who have now returned to the Theatre of Dreams following elimination from the Africa Cup of Nations.
Carrick is expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Bruno Fernandes slotting into the number 10 role behind Benjamin Sesko, who now has three goals in his last two games.
Diego Dalot will likely continue at right-back with Noussair Mazraoui still on international duty. Rising star Shea Lacey will not feature here after being sent off against the Seagulls, while Matthijs De Light is ruled out through injury.
Erling Haaland has 11 goal contributions in nine games against Man United!
The Norwegian bagged a brace in the reverse fixture at the Etihad and scored his landmark 150th goal for the Sky Blues in his last league game, reaching the incredible feat in just 173 appearances.
Antoine Semenyo has enjoyed an excellent start to life in Manchester, having scored on debut in the Carabao Cup and followed up with another against Newcastle on Tuesday. He also netted the opener in that crazy 4-4 draw here for Bournemouth last month.
Guardiola does have several injury absentees at present, though, including Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, Mateo Kovacic, Savinho and Oscar Bobb, while Nico Gonzalez is a minor doubt.
Most goals and assists
Manchester United
Manchester City
B. Mbeumo
(11 Goals)
, 
B. Sesko
(11 Goals)
E. Haaland
(27 Goals)
B. Fernandes
(21 Assists)
R. Cherki
(12 Assists)
Manchester United - Manchester City Key Points
- Five of Manchester United’s last eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Manchester United have only failed to score in one of their last 10 home games.
- Man City (1.92) and Man United (1.83) have the first and second-highest xG per 90 in the league this season, respectively.
- Manchester City have scored two or more goals in five of their last six away games.
- Seven of the last eight Premier League matches between these sides ended with over 2.5 goals.
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Our Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction
While Manchester United carry a solid attacking threat, they have been extremely poor in defence this season, having already shipped 32 goals, which is the most of the top 14 teams in the league standings.
We are well aware of the firepower Manchester City possesses, but they are short-handed in defence with Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol and John Stones all sidelined. Given the stats and recent form, we are expecting a few goals in this match. Our Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Alternative Predictions
Erling Haaland to score anytime
The Norwegian international is the leading goal-scorer in the league this season with 20 goals (and four assists) in 21 games. He has 11 goal contributions in nine games against Man United and netted a brace against the Red Devils in the reverse fixture.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester United Manchester City
| Manchester United vs Manchester City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United wins | 4.12 | 3.66 | -11.2% |
| Draw | 3.97 | 3.95 | -0.5% |
| Manchester City wins | 1.92 | 2.3 | +19.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 19.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.1% and is now 43.5% (-8.6%)
Manchester United vs Manchester City - FAQs
The Premier League match between Manchester United and Manchester City will take place on January 17 at 12:30 GMT.
The Premier League match between Manchester United and Manchester City will be played at Old Trafford in Manchester.
The Premier League match between Manchester United and Manchester City will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
