Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Sridhar Bhamidi | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
New beginnings beckon Italy and Belgium as they start their League A group A1 campaign in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League (UNL) tournament with new coaches in the dugout. This game will be played on Friday at Stadio Olimpico in Rome. This is matchday one between the Azzurri and the ‘Red Devils', who will be keen for a winning start. Which side has an edge in this tactical game?
Roberto Mancini is back in charge of the Italian national team as they look to rebuild from the recent ruins. They have failed to qualify for the FIFA World Cup for three editions in a row. That has hit their image in the minds of their fans, who will be rooting for a positive start to this tournament.
Belgium reached the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup but is also at the start of a new era under Mark van Bommel after a below-par performance in the last UNL edition. Who has the edge in Rome? Read our analysis, team news, and match predictions to learn more.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Italy v Belgium Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.18 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.64 | 3.32 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.56 | 3.26 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.56 | 3.26 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.56 | 3.26 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Belgium?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Belgium match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/09/2026 between Italy and Belgium in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.61% for a win of Italy against Belgium with odds of 2.25 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Belgium is 17.86% with odds of 3.64 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.53% chance ⭐ for a win of Belgium vs Italy with odds of 3.32 at 1xbet.
Italy vs Belgium Form
Italy and Belgium Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
Italy vs Belgium Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2021 - Euro
Italy - Belgium: Form Analysis
Italy were last seen in two friendlies in June – winning both by a 1-0 scoreline against Luxembourg and Greece. Both games were played under a temporary coach with a young team, so the Azzurri have a task on their hands here.
Mancini will look back at Italy’s performance in the previous UNL edition for inspiration. Italy reached the quarter-finals but lost 5-4 to Germany after four wins in six matches in the league phase (D1, L1).
Italy won four of their last five home matches without conceding.
Belgium’s last match was a 2-1 defeat to Spain in the World Cup quarter-finals, which ended an unbeaten five-game run in that competition (W2, D3) within 90 minutes.
They have a lot to improve in this competition, though, as they had to go through the promotion/relegation play-offs to retain their League A status. That needed a 4-3 aggregate win over Ukraine, but four defeats in five Nations League matches excluding playoffs (D1) suggest this won’t be a straightforward game.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Players list
G. Donnarumma
DefenderF. Chiarodia
D. Bartesaghi
H. Ahanor
P. Comuzzo
MidfielderL. Lipani
C. Ndour
N. Pisilli
ForwardL. Koleosho
F. Esposito
J. Ekhator
T. Courtois
DefenderT. Castagne
N. Ngoy
B. Mechele
M. De Cuyper
MidfielderN. Raskin
H. Vanaken
K. De Bruyne
ForwardJ. Doku
L. Trossard
C. De Ketelaere
Substitutes
L. Palmisani
G. Daffara
DefenderF. Mane
L. Reggiani
N. Fortini
MidfielderG. Faticanti
T. Berti
C. Favasuli
M. Dagasso
ForwardA. Cacciamani
S. Fini
S. Inacio
F. Camarda
S. Lammens
M. Penders
DefenderT. Meunier
A. Theate
K. De Winter
J. Seys
MidfielderA. Saelemaekers
A. Witsel
D. Moreira
ForwardM. Fernandez-Pardo
R. Lukaku
D. Lukebakio
Italy & Belgium Squad Analysis
Italy will be without Alessandro Bastoni, who was suspended, while the likes of Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, and Manuel Locatelli are all sidelined due to injuries. Dimarco and Cristante have already withdrawn from the squad.
Mancini’s side could be lined up in a 4-3-3 formation with the Esposito brothers – Sebastiano and Pio likely to start in the final third, with Pio in a central role.
Daniel Maldini has scored once in each of his last three club games.
Thibaut Courtois is taking a break for Belgium, while Axel Witsel has retired. That leaves Manchester United’s Senne Lammens in the goal, with the young stopper tasked with rising from the lows of a disastrous mistake against Spain in the World Cup.
The visitors are likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Romelu Lukaku set to play as their only striker. Paris Saint-Germain winger Mika Godts is likely to feature on the wings as Belgium aim for a winning start here, with Manchester United’s Youri Tielemans set to be the captain.
Italy - Belgium Key Points
- Italy have scored in their last 11 matches in a row.
- Seven of Italy’s last eight Nations League matches have produced BTTS.
- Belgium kept just one clean sheet in their last eight Nations League fixtures.
- Five of Belgium’s last six matches saw both teams score.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Italy vs Belgium Prediction
Both teams are embarking on new journeys under new managers, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this role. Roberto Mancini is back at the helm for Italy, who have missed out on FIFA World Cup qualification for the last three editions. Belgium, on the other hand, have appointed Mark van Bommel and come here on the back of reaching the quarter finals of the World Cup.
There’s enough incentive for both nations to start their campaign on the front foot. That’s why our Italy vs Belgium prediction is BTTS.
Italy vs Belgium Alternative Predictions
Italy wins
Italy have won four of their last five meetings against Belgium, plus they have nine wins from their last 11 matches. Despite the downbeat mood among their fans, Italy could be fancying their chances of starting with a win.
Romelu Lukaku Over 1.5 Shots on Target
Romelu Lukaku may not be in great form with his club Fenerbahce, but he would enjoy returning to national colours. He has scored three goals in his last four competitive games for Belgium and could be a good pick to be their focal point for attack. Back him to hit at least two shots on target.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Italy vs. Belgium game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Italy and Belgium? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's UEFA Nations League! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
