Italy vs France Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The San Siro in Milan sets the stage for the Matchday 5 UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and France on Thursday night. These sides played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, and our prediction is that both teams will get on the scoresheet in this one as well.
Italy enter MD5 in second place in the Group A1 standings with seven points after four games. They are safe from direct relegation but just one point above third-placed Belgium.
Gli Azzurri secured a 3-1 victory over Turkiye in their last match. Notably, Roberto Mancini’s squad for this month’s games is the youngest he has ever selected, with the likes of Riccardo Casano (17) and Simone Lontani (18) earning call-ups.
The hosts have split their two home games in this competition, one win and one defeat. They are winless in their last four home games against their upcoming opponents.
Meanwhile, France are among the favourites to win the UNL title this season. They lead Group A1 with 10 points from their four games (W3 D1) and are safe from relegation.
Les Bleus cruised to a 4-1 victory over Belgium in their last match. Michael Olise notched up two goals and an assist in that victory and has recorded a goal contribution in all four matches in this competition.
The visitors have won both away games in this competition and kept clean sheets in each match. They have not lost on the road since losing to Spain in the semi-finals in June last year.
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Italy v France Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.10 | 3.85 | 1.76 |
|
|
4.51 | 3.89 | 1.81 |
|
|
4.40 | 3.80 | 1.78 |
|
|
3.86 | 3.64 | 1.93 |
|
|
4.40 | 3.80 | 1.78 |
|
Our editorial team's top-confidence betting tip, every day.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and France?
Our prediction for the Italy vs France match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/11/2026 between Italy and France in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 24.63% for a win of Italy against France with odds of 4.51 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs France is 28.23% with odds of 4 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 47.15% chance ⭐ for a win of France vs Italy with odds of 1.93 at Betwinner.
Italy vs France Form
Italy and France's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 |
|
2
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
Italy and France Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
29 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
Italy vs France Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
25 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
Italy vs France last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
G. Vicario
M. Carnesecchi
DefenderR. Calafiori
G. Scalvini
M. Kayode
MidfielderN. Cambiaghi
N. Fagioli
D. Frattesi
S. Tonali
ForwardS. Esposito
S. Inacio
F. Esposito
M. Maignan
J. Butez
DefenderA. Truffert
P. Kalulu
MidfielderA. Rabiot
L. Da Cunha
R. Cherki
ForwardD. Doue
M. Olise
Missing players
G. Mancini
M. Ruggeri
J. Kounde
M. Lacroix
MidfielderM. Akliouche
ForwardO. Dembele
E. Lepaul
Most goals and assists
Italy
France
A. Bastoni
(2 Goals)
,
F. Esposito
(2 Goals)
M. Olise
(4 Goals)
F. Esposito
(1 Assists)
,
N. Barella
(1 Assists)
M. Olise
(2 Assists)
,
R. Cherki
(2 Assists)
,
D. Doue
(2 Assists)
Italy and France Stats in UEFA Nations League
Italy - France Key Points
- Each of Italy’s last three games in this competition ended with both teams scoring.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in five of their last seven home matches.
- Both of France’s matches in this competition last month ended with both teams scoring.
- France have scored in each of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last six matches between these sides.
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Our Italy vs France Prediction
After the disappointment of failing to qualify for the World Cup, Italy have looked better in this competition, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet, and it will be interesting to see how Mancini’s youthful team perform in this match.
France will wrap up top spot in this group with a victory here. While they have yet to concede an away goal in this competition, they were held to a 1-1 draw by this opponent last month and have not kept a clean sheet against Gli Azzurri since September 2007. Therefore, our Italy vs France prediction is BTTS.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
