Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Betting Tips - Eredivisie
Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Joseph King | in Eredivisie Predictions
Second-placed Ajax host fourth-placed AZ Alkmaar at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Saturday for matchday 11 of the 2026-27 Eredivisie. Both De Godenzonen and De Kaasboeren rank in the division’s top five for expected goals and big chances created. Thus, our match prediction is backing a lively meeting between the two sides.
Ajax come into this one in a good vein of form, having won their last three in a row across all competitions. They ran out 5-2 winners on the road over Groningen, 2-0 victors at home over Atalanta, and most recently beat Sparta 2-1 away in their last outing.
This has them trailing leaders Feyenoord by three points after 10 games in the books. Perhaps the most interesting thing about Ajax’s season so far is the contrast between their home form and away form. They’ve taken just six points from a possible 15 at home, while earning a perfect 15 from 15 available away from home.
AZ, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction. After winning five straight to start the Eredivisie season, they’ve now managed just a single win from the latest five. This includes their current three-match winless run (L2).
AZ’s last outing saw them fall to a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Twente. There were worrying signs defensively, as AZ gave up 2.02 xGA and failed to convert on their 1.53 xG.
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Ajax v AZ Alkmaar Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.71 | 4.30 | 3.95 |
|
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1.74 | 4.44 | 4.13 |
|
|
1.73 | 4.38 | 4.08 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.28 | 3.84 |
|
|
1.73 | 4.38 | 4.08 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?
Our prediction for the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar match is: BTTS + over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/10/2026 between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.89% for a win of Ajax against AZ Alkmaar with odds of 1.79 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar is 23.43% with odds of 4.44 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.69% chance ⭐ for a win of AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax with odds of 4.25 at Betsson.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Form
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
21 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +16 |
|
5
|
20 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 |
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Oct 2026 - Conference League
18 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Oct 2026 - Conference League
10 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Oct 2026 - Conference League
10 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
5 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
27 Aug 2026 - Conference League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
18 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Oct 2026 - Conference League
12 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Aug 2026 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Oct 2026 - Europa League
18 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Oct 2026 - Europa League
10 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Oct 2026 - Europa League
20 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
11 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
29 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Oct 2026 - Europa League
18 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
10 Oct 2026 - Eredivisie
16 Sept 2026 - Europa League
6 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
16 Mar 2025 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2025 - KNVB beker
8 Dec 2024 - Eredivisie
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Heerkens
M. Paes
DefenderJ. Torrents
A. Bouwman
O. Wijndal
D. Blind
MidfielderR. Bounida
M. Abdalla
Y. Bissouma
D. Klaassen
O. Gloukh
ForwardM. Leonardo
R. Owusu Oduro
DefenderM. De Wit
D. Kasius
S. Maikuma
R. Ichihara
MidfielderH. de Wit
J. Clasie
ForwardC. Stengs
B. Kovacs
W. Bouziane
J. Armantrading
A. Oufkir
Missing players
C. Henrique
A. Gaaei
ForwardS. Berghuis
K. Dolberg
O. Edvardsen
S. Adingra
S. Resink
MidfielderK. Smit
ForwardJ. Hornkamp
Most goals and assists
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
J. Brandt
(6 Goals)
R. Daal
(5 Goals)
O. Gloukh
(4 Assists)
M. Chavez
(3 Assists)
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar Stats in Eredivisie
Ajax - AZ Alkmaar Key Points
- Four of Ajax's five home league matches have finished with BTTS + over 2.5 goals.
- AZ have seen BTTS + over 2.5 in three of their five away Eredivisie matches.
- Ajax rank second in the Eredivisie for expected goals (25.3), with AZ fourth (22.4).
- Ajax are tied for the most big chances created in the division with 48, with AZ fifth on 37.
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Our Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
Both sides have strong underlying attacking numbers, which points towards this being an open match in Amsterdam. While Ajax have struggled somewhat on home soil so far, it's a small sample size and their strong goal numbers mean they will eventually find their groove at their stadium.
AZ's recent form is a worrying sign, and is something that could work against this bet hitting. However, six goals in their last two away trips across all competitions should give them some confidence. Our Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: BTTS + over 2.5.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
