Wales vs New Zealand Prediction & Betting Tips - Nations Championship
Rugby Union - Nations Championship
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by Steve Ashfield | in Nations Championship Predictions
Wales avoided a third straight loss in the Rugby Nations Championship when they beat Japan last weekend. The Dragons have a much tougher task this weekend as they host New Zealand in Cardiff. The All-Blacks have won their last 34 games against Wales. Our prediction is a New Zealand win on a -25.5 handicap.
With two games to play, Wales are fifth in the northern hemisphere group as the penultimate weekend of fixtures take place. They had lost two of their three matches before beating Japan last weekend. Their last victory over New Zealand was 63 years ago. They have lost by at least 26 points in each of their last three meetings.
New Zealand began the weekend in second place in the southern hemisphere table. Each of their first four matches has been won and after this match they travel to Twickenham to play England. The All-Blacks had an away game against Wales last year and won that by 26 points.
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Wales v New Zealand Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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20.00 | 50.00 | 1.02 |
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19.00 | 49.00 | 1.02 |
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19.00 | 49.00 | 1.02 |
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17.00 | 51.00 | 1.00 |
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14.00 | 20.00 | 1.01 |
|
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Wales vs New Zealand Form
Wales and New Zealand Last Matches
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5/6 (83%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Wales vs New Zealand Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
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Wales - New Zealand: Form Analysis
Wales have won two of their matches in this Rugby Nations Championship. Their victories have come against Japan and Fiji, the bottom two countries in the southern hemisphere table. The Welsh side begin this fifth set of group fixtures a point behind Scotland. Their final group game will see them host Australia.
No win for Wales since 1963.
The win over Japan was their second successive home victory after beating Italy in this year's Six Nations. Few are expecting a hat-trick of wins with a victory over New Zealand this weekend. They have been beaten by the All-Blacks in 34 consecutive matches since a win in 1963 when Beatlemania was sweeping the country.
New Zealand are second in the southern hemisphere table, behind South Africa (who play on Friday against France) on points difference. The two countries are well clear of the rest of the countries in their group. Last weekend saw them win in Scotland by 22 points.
That followed wins in the summer over France (by just two points), Italy and Ireland. The All-Blacks have won 11 of their 14 matches played this year. All three of their defeats came in the summer test series against world champions South Africa.
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Wales & New Zealand Squad Analysis
Not since 2022 has Taine Basham started a match for Wales. He will be the number eight this weekend as the Welsh side face the All-Blacks. Their back row has been shuffled for this match and Basham will be partnering James Botham and Jac Morgan.
Last weekend saw Wales beat Japan 28-21 with Josh Adams scoring two tries. He’s been left out this weekend with Gabriel Hamer-Webb coming into the starting line-up. Overall, four changes have been made to the XV that began last weekend’s match. They will be without prop Tomas Francis due to injury and he’ll miss next week too.
New captain for the All-Blacks.
New Zealand will be captained by Beauden Barrett for the first time. Last weekend saw them beat Scotland and eight changes have been made to the XV that started that win at Murrayfield. Both the Barrett brothers will be starting this match with Scott at lock.Will Jordan and Jordie Barratt both picked up injuries against Scotland and will miss this match.
Wales - New Zealand Key Points
- Wales have lost their last 34 games against New Zealand.
- New Zealand have only been beaten by South Africa this year.
- New Zealand have won all four of their matches in this Rugby Nations Championship.
- New Zealand have won all of their last three away games against Wales by at least 26 points.
- Each of those wins saw the All-Blacks score at least 50 points.
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Our Wales vs New Zealand Prediction
Wales are showing some signs of recovery after one of the most dismal periods in their history. They have recorded home wins over Italy and Japan and also beaten Fiji. This is a far tougher task though as they take on New Zealand who they haven't beaten since the early 1960s.
New Zealand have only lost to the world champions South Africa this year. They had a big win in Scotland last weekend and will be aiming for another victory here before taking on England next week. Our main Wales v New Zealand prediction is New Zealand wins on a -25.5 handicap.
Wales vs New Zealand Alternative Predictions
New Zealand wins
Asafo Aumua scores a try
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Wales vs New Zealand - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
