UFC - UFC 321
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
Get ready for one of the most exciting fights this week as the vacant strawweight title is on the line at UFC 321 in this highly-anticipated rematch between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. See our best Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern here.
Both women are elite-level grapplers, but the difference in their recent momentum has left us leaning toward Jandiroba for the win, likely by decision. The first meeting in 2020 saw Dern take a unanimous decision in a very competitive fight, but Jandiroba has evolved significantly since then, and is riding an impressive five-fight winning streak.
Carcara's last outing was a dominant unanimous decision victory over former title challenger Yan Xiaonan on April 12, 2025. In that fight, Jandiroba was relentless with her wrestling, landing multiple takedowns and recording nearly ten minutes of control time, which perfectly showcased her strategy of prioritizing top-position grappling.
In contrast, Dern, though coming off a win over Amanda Ribas on January 11, 2025, has been inconsistent, suffering two losses in her last four fights leading up to that victory. While The Iron Lady is arguably the more dangerous submission artist here, her 25% takedown defense and low 17% takedown accuracy will make it extremely difficult to dictate against Jandiroba with a 73% takedown defense.
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Virna Jandiroba - Mackenzie Dern Key Points
- Virna Jandiroba has won her last five fights in a row.
- Jandiroba holds a strong 73\% takedown defense.
- Jandiroba has a significantly higher takedown average per 15 minutes (2.37) compared to Dern's (0.89).
- Mackenzie Dern's 25% takedown defense is a major vulnerability against a dominant top-game grappler like Jandiroba.
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Our Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Prediction
We feel this five-round contest will be a test of whose grappling controls the cage. While Mackenzie Dern is a nightmare off her back, Virna Jandiroba's recent performances underlines her evolution since their last bout, specifically in her ability to both land and defend takedowns.
From our analysis, we anticipate Carcara aiming to neutralize the submission threat and control the action from top position for three or more rounds, allowing her to secure the championship. Hence, our Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern match prediction is that Virna Jandiroba wins.
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