Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga

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Germany - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
05/04/2026 09:30
St. Pauli

Prediction :

 

Union Berlin wins

 
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 by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions

Easter Sunday gives a chance for Union Berlin to pile more misery on the relegation-threatened St Pauli as the sides meet in a matchday 28 fixture. This match in Berlin between the ninth-placed ‘Iron Ones’ and the 16th-placed ‘Neighbourhood Kickers’ comes with our prediction of a home win.

Ahead of this matchday, Union’s 31 points (W8, D7, L12) see them start with a comfortable seven-point buffer over the relegation zone. The last of those spots, the relegation play-off place, is currently occupied by St Pauli with 24 points (W6, D6, L15), who are two points adrift of safety places.

Union were thrashed 4-0 away at Bayern going into the international break. That was their third loss in the last four matches (W1), but they are still a fair bit away from the relegation zone.

It’s their stubborn record at home that’s holding the flag for Union, who have posted steady results in their last six Bundesliga matches at this venue (W2, D2, L2).

St Pauli lost 2-0 at home to Freiburg going into the international break on the back of consecutive defeats. Those seem to have punctured the momentum of seven points from three prior Bundesliga games (W2, D1).

There’s still a lot of work to do on the road, though, where St Pauli have lost 10 of their last 13 Bundesliga trips (W1, D2).

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Union Berlin v St. Pauli Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
2.11 3.25 4.1
Melbet
2.05 3.18 4
Betwinner
2.13 3.15 3.76
Bet365
2.1 3.2 3.75
Roobet
2.04 3.15 3.9
Check all Union Berlin vs St. Pauli odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Union Berlin and St. Pauli?

Our prediction for the Union Berlin vs St. Pauli match is: Union Berlin wins.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/04/2026 between Union Berlin and St. Pauli in Bundesliga :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.47% for a win of Union Berlin against St. Pauli with odds of 2.3 at Shangrila.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Union Berlin vs St. Pauli is 17.83% with odds of 3.34 at 888Starz.
  • Our prediction model gives a 27.7% chance ⭐ for a win of St. Pauli vs Union Berlin with odds of 4.1 at Stake.

Union Berlin - St. Pauli Prediction and Best Odds:

Union Berlin St. Pauli Prediction Probability Odds
Union Berlin wins 54.47% 2.3 at Shangrila
Over 2.5 goals 59.04% 2.46 at Betwinner
Both Team To Score: No 55.21%
Half-time / Full-time : Union Berlin/Union Berlin 19.73% 3.4 at Bet365

Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Form

Union Berlin and St. Pauli's standings in the Bundesliga

Teams Pts P W D L GD
11 Union Berlin
39 34 10 9 15 -14
18 St. Pauli
26 34 6 8 20 -31

Union Berlin and St. Pauli Last Matches

Union Berlin
Union Berlin Last matches
L W L L W L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Bayern Munich
4 :  0
Union Berlin

15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Freiburg
0 :  1
Union Berlin

8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  4
Werder Bremen

28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Mönchengladbach
1 :  0
Union Berlin

21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Hamburg
3 :  2
Union Berlin
W D L D W L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  4
Werder Bremen

21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

6 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  1
Eintracht Frankfurt

24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
2 :  2
1 Fsv Mainz 05

12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
3 :  1
Leipzig
D L L L W L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Bayern Munich
4 :  0
Union Berlin

15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Freiburg
0 :  1
Union Berlin

28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Mönchengladbach
1 :  0
Union Berlin

14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Hamburg
3 :  2
Union Berlin

31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Hoffenheim
3 :  1
Union Berlin

18 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Stuttgart
1 :  1
Union Berlin
St. Pauli
St. Pauli Last matches
L W W D L L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
1 :  2
Freiburg

13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Mönchengladbach
2 :  0
St. Pauli

8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  0
Eintracht Frankfurt

28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Hoffenheim
0 :  1
St. Pauli

22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
2 :  1
Werder Bremen

14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen
4 :  0
St. Pauli
D D W W D L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
1 :  2
Freiburg

8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  0
Eintracht Frankfurt

22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
2 :  1
Werder Bremen

7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
2 :  1
Stuttgart

27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
1 :  1
Leipzig

23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  0
Hamburg
L L L L W L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

5/6 (83%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
2.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga

Mönchengladbach
2 :  0
St. Pauli

28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Hoffenheim
0 :  1
St. Pauli

14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen
4 :  0
St. Pauli

3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal

Bayer Leverkusen
3 :  0
St. Pauli

31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Augsburg
2 :  1
St. Pauli

17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
3 :  2
St. Pauli

Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Union Berlin

75 %

Draw

0 %

St. Pauli

25 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2
Total goals
25%
BTTS
1
Goals scored
1
Goals conceded
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5

23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  1
Union Berlin

26 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
3 :  0
Union Berlin

30 Aug 2024 - Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1 :  0
St. Pauli

1 Mar 2022 - DFB Pokal

Union Berlin
2 :  1
St. Pauli

Union Berlin against St. Pauli Lineups: Starting 11

Union Berlin

Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2

1
F. Ronnow
5
D. Doekhi
14
L. Querfeld
4
D. Leite
19
J. Haberer
13
A. Schafer
8
R. Khedira
39
D. Kohn
11
J. Woo-yeong
23
A. Ilic
7
O. Burke
19
M. Kaars
28
M. Pereira Lage
10
D. Sinani
11
A. Pyrka
7
J. Irvine
20
M. Rasmussen
16
J. Fujita
3
K. Mets
5
H. Wahl
25
A. Dzwigala
22
N. Vasilj

Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1

St. Pauli

Substitutes

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
Goalkeeper

C. Klaus

Defender

C. Trimmel

T. Rothe

D. Kohn 80'

J. Juranovic

Midfielder

A. Kemlein

L. Burcu

T. Skarke

A. Kral

J. Woo-yeong 73'

Forward

I. Ansah

O. Burke 81'

St. Pauli
St. Pauli
Goalkeeper

B. Voll

Defender

D. Nemeth

J. Robatsch

L. Ritzka

Midfielder

C. Metcalfe

J. Fujita 74'

L. Oppie

Forward

A. Ceesay

M. Rasmussen 89'

T. Hara

A. Hountondji

M. Kaars 60'

Missing players

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
Goalkeeper

M. Raab

St. Pauli
St. Pauli
Goalkeeper

S. Spari

Defender

M. Saliakas

E. Smith

T. Ando

Midfielder

J. Sands

R. Jade-Jones

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Union Berlin
CD Huachipato St. Pauli
Top Goalscorer
Scotland O. Burke (6 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Luxembourg D. Sinani (5 Goals)
Best assists
Serbia A. Ilic (8 Assists)
Best assists
Japan J. Fujita (3 Assists)

Union Berlin - St. Pauli Key Points

  1. Union have won two of the last three matches against St Pauli.
  2. St Pauli have lost six of their last seven away competitive matches.
  3. In the Bundesliga, St Pauli were beaten in 10 of their last 13 away matches.
  4. Union were beaten in just two of their last six home league games, winning and drawing two each.
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Our Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Prediction

Looking at history, Union are unbeaten in their last nine competitive home matches against St Pauli, including five straight wins. Is that bad news for the visitors? They are currently struggling to hold their own in the relegation battle, which is proving to be a tight battle. Union lost three of their last four Bundesliga matches but will hope to bank on their home superiority over St Pauli to cruise through in this fixture.

St Pauli have struggled on the road this season, and that’s why our Union Berlin vs St, Pauli prediction is Union Berlin wins.

Prediction :

 

Union Berlin wins

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Union Berlin St. Pauli

Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Union Berlin wins 2.18 2.3 +5.5%
Draw 3.4 3.34 -1.8%
St. Pauli wins 3.7 4.1 +10.8%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Union Berlin is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 5.5% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 45.9% and is now 43.5% (-2.4%)

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Prediction