Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Premier League Predictions
We’ve got a London derby in store for matchday eight in the Premier League as fourth-place Chelsea host 16th-placed Tottenham at Stamford Bridge. With the Blues ranking 12th in expected goals and Spurs 18th, our prediction is backing this match to not be quite as open as the market is anticipating.
Chelsea are starting to pick up some steam, with victory on Saturday giving them three consecutive EPL wins for the first time since February. That has moved them into the top four with 13 points accumulated from their seven matches. They’ll be looking to extend their dominant run over their London rivals here, as Chelsea have now won the last six consecutive meetings between these two sides.
The challenge is clear for Tottenham, who have really struggled for consistency out of the gates this season after narrowly avoiding relegation last season. They spent an extraordinary figure in the summer, and more is expected of the visitors as they get to grips with the new squad. On the plus side, they did manage their first win of the league campaign last time out, moving them out of the relegation zone with six points.
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Chelsea v Tottenham Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.66 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
|
|
1.76 | 4.41 | 4.57 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.24 | 4.40 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.24 | 4.40 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.28 | 4.40 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Tottenham?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Tottenham match is: under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/10/2026 between Chelsea and Tottenham in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.66% for a win of Chelsea against Tottenham with odds of 1.76 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Tottenham is 21.14% with odds of 4.41 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.2% chance ⭐ for a win of Tottenham vs Chelsea with odds of 4.75 at Bet365.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Form
Chelsea and Tottenham's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
13 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 |
|
16
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 |
Chelsea and Tottenham Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2026 - Premier League
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
18 Sept 2026 - Premier League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
9 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
6 Sept 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
9 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Aug 2026 - Premier League
27 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2026 - Premier League
18 Sept 2026 - Premier League
6 Sept 2026 - Premier League
24 Aug 2026 - Premier League
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2026 - Premier League
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
15 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2026 - Premier League
19 Sept 2026 - Premier League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
26 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
15 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
22 Aug 2026 - Premier League
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Chelsea vs Tottenham Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
0 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
19 May 2026 - Premier League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
3 Apr 2025 - Premier League
8 Dec 2024 - Premier League
2 May 2024 - Premier League
Chelsea - Tottenham: Form Analysis
It’s been a solid start to the season for Chelsea, who are beginning to take shape under new manager Xabi Alonso. They deserve immense credit for their performance last weekend, as they pulled off a 2-0 away victory over Everton.
It was a much-needed three points as the Blues have responded to that 3-0 loss to Brentford in emphatic fashion, winning their last two straight and scoring seven goals in the process.
The attacking numbers have really caught the eye for Chelsea, although a look under the hood suggests they might be due some regression. They managed just 1.10 xG in their thumping 5-1 home win over Brentford. On the season as a whole, they’ve created just 9.9 xG to their 17 goals scored.
Chelsea’s win over Everton marked their first EPL clean sheet since January 2026.
Defensively, though, there were hugely encouraging signs for Chelsea as they limited Everton to just 0.47 xG.
Tottenham, meanwhile, can build on the momentum of their 3-1 home win over Coventry, a result which snapped a six-game winless run across all competitions. Context needs to be applied though, as the Lilywhites weren’t especially impressive on the attacking front.
Worryingly, the visitors managed only 0.86 xG against the promoted side and failed to register a single big chance, instead relying on some brilliant finishes. Even with those three goals scored, Tottenham still have the joint-second-lowest goal tally in the division at six.
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Chelsea vs Tottenham last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
M. Penders
DefenderM. Palestra
W. Fofana
MidfielderM. Nicoll-Jazuli
V. Barco
R. Lavia
ForwardD. Welbeck
G. Quenda
Estevao
M. Dubravka
DefenderB. Davies
M. Senesi
MidfielderD. Kulusevski
C. Gallagher
M. Fernandes
C. Olusesi
ForwardM. Tel
L. Williams-Barnet
Missing players
E. Martinez
DefenderR. James
ForwardE. Emegha
J. Gittens
P. Porro
MidfielderR. Bentancur
Savio
L. Bergvall
ForwardRicharlison
M. Mudryk
X. Simons
W. Odobert
Chelsea & Tottenham Squad Analysis
Emi Martinez is facing up to two months on the sidelines after a nasty collision in Chelsea’s win over Everton left the World Cup winner with a fractured jaw. In his place, 21-year-old Mike Penders is in line to make his fourth appearance for Chelsea.
Elsewhere, Malo Gusto, Jamie Gittens, Pep Chavarria and Emanuel Emegha are all doubts with various injuries, while Reece James is confirmed as out until January.
Chelsea’s attacking front three have been drawing all of the headlines so far this season, with Joao Pedro in particular displaying the form of his career so far. He’s second in the scoring charts with five goals scored in six appearances, and has also chipped in with three assists.
Cole Palmer is Chelsea’s conduit, leading the team in chances created (15) and big chances created (6).
James Maddison marked his first start in more than 18 months with a stunning long-range strike for Tottenham’s first goal. The 29-year-old put in a MOTM performance, dictating the play and initiating many of Spurs attacks.
On the injury front, Roberto De Zerbi will be unable to call upon as many as seven players. Including attacking wingbacks Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie, as well as wingers Savio, Odobert and Mudryk.
Encouragingly, the win against Coventry also saw the return of Dejan Kulusevski, who made his first appearance for the club in 526 days.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Tottenham
Joao Pedro
(5 Goals)
C. Gallagher
(1 Goals)
, 
J. van Hecke
(1 Goals)
,
D. Solanke
(1 Goals)
, 
B. Davies
(1 Goals)
,
J. Maddison
(1 Goals)
, 
O. Marmoush
(1 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(3 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(3 Assists)
A. Robertson
(2 Assists)
, 
M. Kudus
(2 Assists)
Chelsea and Tottenham Stats in Premier League
Chelsea - Tottenham Key Points
- Tottenham have the fifth-best expected goals against record in the Premier League at 9.5.
- Chelsea have scored 17 goals from just 9.9 expected goals this season, ranking 12th in the division for chance creation.
- Tottenham have scored six goals in seven league matches, the second-lowest tally in the division.
- Tottenham managed 0.86 expected goals and failed to register a single big chance in their 3-1 win over Coventry.
- The visitors have seen under 3.5 in six of their seven league matches, including all three away.
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Our Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction
The obvious argument against this selection is Chelsea’s goal output, as they rank third in the league with 17. With that being said, the Blues ranking 12th in the division for expected goals suggests some regression could be in store.
They also come up against a Spurs side that has strong defensive metrics, ranking fifth-best in expected goals against. Tottenham put in an underwhelming attacking performance against Coventry despite the three goals scored. The market is pricing this one as a back-and-forth shootout, while the underlying numbers suggest otherwise. Our Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction: under 3.5 goals.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Alternative Predictions
Cole Palmer Over 0.5 Assists
Chelsea wins
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
