UFC - UFC 321
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
If you're looking for the most exciting bantamweight matchup at UFC 321 with value betting opportunities, tune into the Umar Nurmagomedov versus Mario Bautista battle. Does the high-volume striker finally shut down the legendary Dagestani wrestling, or does Umar prove he's still a championship-level talent? See our best pick in this Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista match prediction.
We're firmly in the corner of Umar here. Umar is coming off the first loss of his career, which was a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025, where he came up short in a title bid. That was a five-round war, and a short break would have only sharpened his focus. Meanwhile, Mario Bautista is on a fantastic eight-fight win streak, last winning a unanimous decision over Patchy Mix in June 2025.
That win showed his durability, but he didn't face the kind of suffocating pressure Umar is about to bring. Notably, Umar averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, with the second-highest control time percentage in UFC Bantamweight history at a staggering 44.5%.
Bautista is a volume striker at 6.13 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, but his 67% takedown defense is a clear hole that the grappling savant will likely exploit immediately. Umar's wrestling is just on a different level, and once this fight hits the mat, it becomes his domain for the entire
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Umar Nurmagomedov - Mario Bautista Key Points
- Umar Nurmagomedov's professional record is 18-1-0 with seven submission wins.
- Umar possesses a high 78% takedown defense, significantly higher than Bautista's 67% rate.
- Umar boasts the second-highest control time percentage in UFC Bantamweight history at 44.5%.
- Umar averages 3.26 takedowns landed every 15 minutes, double Bautista's 1.67 average.
- Mario Bautista has only been finished twice in his entire career, suggesting a high likelihood that this fight ends by decision or submission.
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Our Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Prediction
It only seems this fight is set up perfectly for Umar Nurmagomedov's fighting style. Looking at his opponent's matchups, Nurmagomedov's wrestling and positional control are simply unmatched by anyone Mario Bautista has beaten on his recent run. Umar needs to shake off that title-fight loss, and there's no better way to do it than by dominating a highly-ranked contender.
We expect him to shut down Bautista's striking and deliver a vintage performance that'll rely heavily on control. Hence, our Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista prediction is that Nurmagomedov Wins by Submission or Decision.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
