Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
For the second time in a matter of a week, Toulouse and Marseille will be facing off, this time in Ligue 1. Toulouse hosts this game, starting the week in 11th place, while Marseille are fourth. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
For the third time this season, these two sides are set to clash. Toulouse hosts the game for the first time, having been away to Marseille in the last two.
They are coming off a win against Marseille on post-match penalties in the French Cup quarters. At 90 minutes the game had ended 2-2.
In the preceding league matches, Les Violets had gone winless and will resume looking to end that poor run.
Marseille will be aware of just how tough it is to beat Toulouse at their base. The hosts have avoided defeat in nine of their 12 league games at home.
Things will be further complicated for Marseille, who have lost half of their 12 away league games and are winless in the last three. Here Les Phoceens will first of all want to avenge their loss in the French Cup earlier in the week.
As they push for that, Marseille must also address their defensive woes, having conceded 2+ in eight of their last 10 matches. In their last five away matches alone, Marseille conceded 14 goals and are winless in four on the road.
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Toulouse v Marseille Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.1 | 3.55 | 2.29 |
|
|
3.14 | 3.52 | 2.22 |
|
|
3.17 | 3.46 | 2.23 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.7 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.55 | 2.14 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Toulouse and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Toulouse vs Marseille match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/03/2026 between Toulouse and Marseille in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.15% for a win of Toulouse against Marseille with odds of 3.28 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Toulouse vs Marseille is 31.42% with odds of 3.7 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.43% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Toulouse with odds of 2.31 at 888Starz.
Toulouse - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Toulouse Marseille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse wins | 36.15% | 3.28 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.58% | 1.91 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Toulouse/Toulouse | 13.99% | 5 at Bet365 |
Toulouse vs Marseille Form
Toulouse and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
|
10
|
44 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | +1 |
Toulouse and Marseille Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Jan 2026 - French Cup
Toulouse vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
67 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
6 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2024 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
17 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
Toulouse against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
K. Haug
DefenderG. Bakhouche Piernas
S. Koumbassa
MidfielderA. Vossah
M. Sauer
S. Hidalgo
J. Russell Rowe
J. Vignolo
J. De Lange
DefenderC. Egan-Riley
Emerson
A. Vermeeren
H. Traore
N. Tocukvu
A. Gouiri
E. Nwaneri
A. Lago
Missing players
C. Cresswell
MidfielderA. Francis
R. Messali
Most goals and assists
Toulouse
Marseille
Y. Gboho
(8 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
S. Hidalgo
(5 Assists)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
Toulouse - Marseille Key Points
- Toulouse drew four times in their last 10 games.
- Marseille are winless in their last four away outings.
- Toulouse drew their last two league games at home.
- Toulouse are winless in their last five league matches.
- The last two meetings between these sides ended in draws.
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Our Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction
The last two meetings between these two sides failed to produce a winner at 90 minutes. The latest was in the French Cup, and Toulouse prevailed on penalties. We are faced with another top contest between them as they go into their third meeting this season.
This one is hosted by Toulouse after the first two were in Marseille, and both teams have reason to go for three points. Going by their recent results though, this encounter looks less likely to have a winner. Our prediction for Toulouse v Marseille is for a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Toulouse Marseille
| Toulouse vs Marseille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse wins | 3.43 | 3.28 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0% |
| Marseille wins | 2.2 | 2.31 | +5.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Toulouse is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 29.2% and is now 30.5% (1.3%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
