UFC - UFC 321
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Devesh Jaganath | in UFC Predictions
The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi will host one of the best cards of the year this weekend - it’s UFC 321 - and the headline bout sees Tom Aspinall taking on Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight title. The Honey Badger has a pro record of 15-3-0, while Bon Gamin is 13-2-0. Check out our match prediction below!
Tom Aspinall has taken the UFC by storm since joining the franchise in 2020, and he is now set to attempt his first title defence as the Undisputed Heavyweight champion. The brawler from Salford brings a blend of incredible knockout power, combined with the speed of a middleweight, which makes him an absolute nightmare for anyone across him inside the Octagon.
Standing in his way is Ciryl Gane, a kickboxing master, who has built his reputation on patience, control, and the ability to strike at the right time. While Gane may not possess the same knockout power as the Brit, he is lightning quick and has cardio for days. Brute strength meets flawless precision in this bout - let’s get into the key stats!
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Tom Aspinall - Ciryl Gane: Form Analysis
Tom Aspinall enters the Octagon this weekend for the first time in over a year, when he notched up his eighth win in the UFC by knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round at UFC 304.
The only blemish on his UFC record was losing to Blaydes in their first fight back in 2022, when he blew out his knee early in the match. He is now riding a three-match win streak, with victories over Sergei Pavlovich and Marcin Tybura.
While the Honey Badger is best known for his devastating knockout power, he has proven that he is also an excellent grappler, having submitted Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski with little trouble.
Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in UFC history at 2 minutes and 2 seconds!
Meanwhile, Cyril Gane will step inside the cage this weekend after 10 months, with his last match ending in a split-decision victory over Alexander Volkov at UFC 310 last December.
Bon Gamin’s average fight time is 14 minutes and 15 seconds, which tells you everything you need to know about his tactics. He is now gunning for his third win on the bounce, having knocked out Serghei Spivac before the win against Volkov.
While Gane is the clear underdog in this bout, it is worth noting that his only defeats were against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou, two fighters that Aspinall was never able to face.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Tom Aspinall & Ciryl Gane Squad Analysis
On to the tale of the tape - Aspinall is 32 years old and fights with an orthodox stance. He weighed in at 253 pounds, stands 6’5” tall and has a reach of 78”.
The Honey Badger’s striking stats are enough to put fear in any fighter, as he averages 8.07 significant strikes per minute with a 67% accuracy. He absorbs 2.89 significant strikes per minute and defends them at 65%.
Aspinall has a 100% accuracy rate in takedowns and a 100% takedown defence!
Gane, on the other hand, is three years older than his opponent and also fights with an orthodox stance. He weighs 245 pounds and is slightly shorter at 6’4”, but has a longer reach at 81”.
Bon Gamin lands 5.26 significant strikes per minute with 61% accuracy, and absorbs 2.23 significant strikes per minute, while defending them at 61%.
The grapple is where the most notable difference lies, with Gane having a 25% takedown accuracy and 43% takedown defence.
Tom Aspinall - Ciryl Gane Key Points
- Tom Aspinall has won eight of his nine matches in the UFC.
- Tom Aspinall has won every fight in the UFC by finishing his opponent.
- Each of Tom Aspinall’s last five wins came in the first round.
- Tom Aspinall has a 100% accuracy in takedowns and a 100% takedown defence.
- Cyril Gane has a 25% takedown accuracy and 43% takedown defence.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Prediction
Tom Aspinall enters this bout as the clear betting favourite, and rightfully so, as he brings a skillset rarely seen - a blend of devastating knockout power, lightning speed, and relentless aggression.
While Cyril Gane has fought the best that the UFC has to offer, the manner in which he lost to Jon Jones and was controlled by Francis Ngannou does not bode well for his chances against Aspinall, who has the shortest average fight time in UFC history. Our Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane prediction is Tom Aspinall wins the match.
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 2.5 rounds
Tom Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in UFC history, and each of his eight UFC wins to date have come by finishing opponents inside the first two rounds.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's UFC 321! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
