Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier Herault Rugby Prediction & Betting Tips - Top 14

Prediction published on 25/09/2026, 15:05  by Ita Emmanuel | Modified on 26/09/2026 at 07:08 in Rugby Predictions

In a rematch of last year's final, defending champions Stade Toulousain host Montpellier in Round 4 of their 2026-27 Top 14 campaign on Sunday. Montpellier have an outside chance of securing victory here, but have been difficult to put away on the road, hence our prediction backing them to at least cover the handicap. 

Stade Toulousain made a disappointing start to the campaign, falling by three points to Stade Rochelais in the opening round. They have bounced back after that loss, winning their subsequent two fixtures, the most recent being a 29–23 away victory over struggling Vannes at Roazhon Park.

The Red and Blacks edged Montpellier 28–20 in last season's finale. Each of their last five wins against Montpellier has come by a respectable margin, and they have not covered the handicap in five of their last seven Top 14 victories.

Montpellier have got their campaign back on track after losing to Section Paloise in the opening round. They eased past Vannes by 14 points in their second fixture before steamrolling USA Perpignan 50–13 last week, with Dimitri Delibes and Lennox Anyanwu scoring two tries each. 

The Rockroses finished last season with the joint-best away record alongside Stade Toulousain, recording a competitive 6–1–6 record on the road. They have won four of their last five Top 14 matches on the road, dating back to last season.