Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Shanghai Masters Predictions
Valentin Vacherot caused a massive shock last year when he won the Shanghai Masters. The defending champion is the 17th seed this year and takes on unseeded Sebastian Baez in round two of this outdoor hard court tournament. A look at the statistics for recent matches has led us to make a prediction of more than 20.5 games.
In round three, the victor will face either 15th seed Tommy Paul or unseeded Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.
Vacherot is the world number 14, but with all those points to defend from last year, he's down to 33rd in the live rankings.
He has 13 of his 25 outdoor hard court matches. Three came last week as he reached the last eight of the Japan Open.
More than 20.5 games have been played in six of his last seven best-of-three sets matches with six tie-breaks.
Sebastian Baez returned to form with a first round victory over Marcos Giron. Before that match he had only won one of his last six matches with three first round exits.
He nearly made a first round exit here. The first set against Giron was lost 6-1 before he won the next two sets.
Of his last five completed best-of-three-sets matches, all have had more than 20.5 games played in them.
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Sebastian Baez v Valentin Vacherot Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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3.3 | 1.32 |
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3.33 | 1.35 |
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|
3.28 | 1.34 |
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|
3.28 | 1.34 |
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|
3.28 | 1.34 |
|
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Who will win the Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot match is: more than 20.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot game on 10/10/2026 of the current ATP Shanghai Masters season:
- Sebastian Baez has a 37.87% chance to win against Valentin Vacherot according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 3.5.
- Valentin Vacherot has a 62.13% probability of winning facing Sebastian Baez ⭐ with odds of 1.35 at 1xbet.
Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Sebastian Baez has a 37.87 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | 37.87 % |
| Valentin Vacherot | 62.13 % |
Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Form
Sebastian Baez and Valentin Vacherot Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
8 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
1 Oct 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
23 Sept 2026 - ATP Chengdu Open
31 Aug 2026 - ATP US Open
25 Aug 2026 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
16 Aug 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
5 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
4 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
1 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
29 Sept 2026 - ATP Japan Open
26 Sept 2026 - ATP Chengdu Open
4 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot Key Points
- Vacherot has played more than 20.5 games in six of his last seven best-of-three sets matches.
- More than 20.5 games have been played in each of the last five completed best-of-three-sets matches played by Baez.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would help our prediction. Vacherot has played at least one in six of his last seven matches.
- Of the eight completed matches played by Vacherot here last year, six had more than 20.5 games played in them.
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction
The pressure is on Valentin Vacherot to again go deep in the Shanghai Masters. Failure to do so will see him slip down the rankings. He warmed up well for this tournament with a run to the last eight in Tokyo. His matches regularly have tie-breaks and more than 20.5 games.
Sebastian Baez made a bright start to the new year on this surface. He failed to build on that and has struggled in recent weeks. Another first round exit nearly happened here but he fought back well. Our Sebastian Baez v Valentin Vacherot prediction is more than 20,5 games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
