Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League

England - Premier League

Arsenal
10/10/2026 06:30
Leeds

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5 goals

 
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 by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions

The Premier League season resumes after the international break. Arsenal are second in the table and will need to bounce back from their loss at Brighton. The Gunners are home to fifth-placed Leeds United who are keeping it pretty tight at the back. Our prediction is less than 2.5 goals.

Arsenal had won their first four league games of the season before they came a cropper on the south coast. They had been impressive in their previous matches and will be keen to get back to that kind of form at home to Leeds United, especially with the Champions League resuming too in midweek.

Unlike their opponents, Leeds United are still unbeaten in this season's Premier League. They are three points behind their opponents with the same goal difference. An away win for the Whites will see them climb above the Gunners in the Premier League table. There's only been three goals scored in their trio of away league fixtures this season.

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Arsenal v Leeds Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
1.36 5 8
1xbet
1.98 4.16 2.91
Melbet
1.36 5.05 8.3
Betwinner
1.39 4.84 7.9
22bet
1.39 4.84 7.9
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What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Leeds?

Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Leeds match is: less than 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2026 between Arsenal and Leeds in Premier League :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 47.32% for a win of Arsenal against Leeds with odds of 1.98 at 1xbet.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Leeds is 22.11% with odds of 5.25 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 30.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Arsenal with odds of 8.6 at Betsson.

Arsenal vs Leeds Form

Arsenal and Leeds's standings in the Premier League

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2 Arsenal
12 5 4 0 1 +4
5 Leeds
9 5 2 3 0 +4

Arsenal and Leeds Last Matches

Arsenal
Arsenal Last matches
W W W W W L
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

19 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
3 :  0
Arsenal

15 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup

Ipswich Town
2 :  4
Arsenal

12 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Sunderland
0 :  2
Arsenal

9 Sept 2026 - Champions League

Napoli
0 :  1
Arsenal

6 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

31 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
0 :  1
Arsenal
L L D W W W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

6 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

21 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Coventry City

16 Aug 2026 - Community Shield

Arsenal
3 :  0
Manchester City

12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  1
Como 1907

9 Aug 2026 - Emirates Cup

Arsenal
2 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

5 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  3
Betis
W W W W W L
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
33% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

19 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
3 :  0
Arsenal

15 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup

Ipswich Town
2 :  4
Arsenal

12 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Sunderland
0 :  2
Arsenal

9 Sept 2026 - Champions League

Napoli
0 :  1
Arsenal

31 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
0 :  1
Arsenal

1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Girona
1 :  4
Arsenal
Leeds
Leeds Last matches
W D D L W D
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

20 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  0
Crystal Palace

14 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Newcastle

9 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup

Chelsea
6 :  3
Leeds

5 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
1 :  1
Leeds

30 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Brentford

25 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup

Nottingham Forest
0 :  2
Leeds
W W W D W D
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
2 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

20 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  0
Crystal Palace

14 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Newcastle

30 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Brentford

15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
4 :  0
Augsburg

8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  0
Leipzig

30 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
1 :  0
Sunderland
W D W W D L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

9 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup

Chelsea
6 :  3
Leeds

5 Sept 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
1 :  1
Leeds

25 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup

Nottingham Forest
0 :  2
Leeds

22 Aug 2026 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
0 :  1
Leeds

12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Leeds

2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Liverpool
2 :  4
Leeds

Arsenal vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Arsenal

100 %

Draw

0 %

Leeds

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3.83
Total goals
50%
BTTS
3.33
Goals scored
0.5
Goals conceded
83.33%
Over 2.5
16.67%
Under 2.5

31 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  4
Arsenal

23 Aug 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
5 :  0
Leeds

1 Apr 2023 - Premier League

Arsenal
4 :  1
Leeds

16 Oct 2022 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  1
Arsenal

8 May 2022 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Leeds

18 Dec 2021 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  4
Arsenal

Arsenal - Leeds: Form Analysis

Arsenal made a great start to the defense of their Premier League crown. After winning the Community Shield, the Gunners won their first four league games of the season. They kept clean sheets in their first two league games of the new season with a 3-0 home win over Coventry City and 1-0 win at Aston Villa.

They finally conceded a goal in their 2-1 home win over Chelsea, but their back-line was in form again when they won 2-0 at Sunderland.  Cup wins have come against Napoli and Ipswich Town, but their unbeaten run came to an end when they were beaten 3-0 at Brighton and Hove Albion in their final game before the international break.

Strong start to the season for United.

Leeds United finished 15th in the Premier League last season, 38 points below champions Arsenal. They conceded 56 goals last season, but they have been defending much better this term. After five league games, United have only conceded three goals and that's one less than Arsenal have had scored against them.

Leeds began the season with two wins at Nottingham Forest in the Premier League and EFL Cup. They then drew their next two league games at home to Brentford and away at Brighton 1-1. There were plenty of goals in their next two games as they lost 6-3 at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and then beat Newcastle 4-1 at home in the league.

It was back to normal last time out as they drew 0-0 at home with Crystal Palace.

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Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction

Arsenal vs Leeds last Lineups

Arsenal

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
D. Raya
12
J. Timber
15
E. Konsa
6
G. Magalhaes
33
R. Calafiori
41
D. Rice
39
B. Guimaraes
7
B. Saka
8
M. Odegaard
17
C. Tzolis
29
K. Havertz
19
N. Okafor
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
3
G. Gudmundsson
22
A. Tanaka
4
E. Ampadu
18
A. Stach
2
J. Bogle
24
J. Justin
5
T. Muharemovic
30
N. Elvedi
1
J. Trafford

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

Leeds

Substitutes

Arsenal
Arsenal
Goalkeeper

K. Arrizabalaga

Defender

P. Hincapie

Midfielder

M. Lewis-Skelly

M. Dowman

M. Zubimendi

M. Merino

E. Eze

Forward

N. Madueke

V. Gyokeres

Leeds
Leeds
Goalkeeper

M. Zetterer

Defender

J. Bijol

M. Bard

Midfielder

I. Gruev

S. Longstaff

Forward

D. James

L. Nmecha

B. Aaronson

J. Bahoya

Missing players

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

E. Konsa

B. White

W. Saliba

P. Hincapie

C. Mosquera

Midfielder

D. Rice

M. Dowman

Forward

K. Havertz

C. Tzolis

Leeds
Leeds
Defender

J. Rodon

Forward

H. Wilson

J. Bahoya

Mateo Joseph

Arsenal & Leeds Squad Analysis

The international break is always a worrying time for clubs. It's definitely been the case for Arsenal who had plenty of players on international duty. The Gunners had several players who had to withdraw from their respective squads. That includes Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa, Kai Havertz and Max Dowman.

Just whether they will be fit to play this weekend isn't known at the time of writing this preview.

Also doubtful for the Gunners are Ben White and Cristhian Mosquera.  This is an important game for Arsenal who have had a long wait to get back in action after the disappointing 3-0 loss away at Brighton and Hove Albion. A better defensive display is definitely going to be wanted by Arteta.

Leeds United had a better time during the international break. Their only withdrawal was French under-21 international Jean-Matteo Bahoya.

Wilson could be fit this weekend.

He's a doubt for this game as are Harry Wilson and Mateo Joseph..The former does have a chance of playing some part in this trip to the Emirates. Leeds have only conceded one away league goal this season. It was a much-changed line-up that conceded six at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup. 

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Arsenal
CD Huachipato Leeds
Top Goalscorer
England B. Saka (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
England D. Calvert-Lewin (2 Goals) ,  England J. Bogle (2 Goals)
Best assists
Italy R. Calafiori (2 Assists) , 
England D. Rice (2 Assists)
Best assists
Germany L. Nmecha (1 Assists) , 
Japan A. Tanaka (1 Assists) , 
England D. Calvert-Lewin (1 Assists) , 
Bosnia and Herzegovina T. Muharemovic (1 Assists)

Arsenal and Leeds Stats in Premier League

Arsenal
Arsenal
Leeds
Leeds
80%
Wins
40%
20%
Losses
0%
0%
Draws
60%
2.4
Average goals per match
2
1.6
Goals scored per match
1.4
0.8
Goals conceded per match
0.6
40%
Under 2.5 goals
80%
60%
Over 2.5 goals
20%
60%
No goals conceded
40%
20%
BTTS
60%

Arsenal - Leeds Key Points

  1. Leeds have only conceded one away league goal this season.
  2. Less than 2.5 goals have been scored in four of the five league games Leeds has played this season.
  3. Five of the last seven Leeds away games have seen less than 2.5 goals scored.
  4. Arsenal have only scored five goals in their last four league games.
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Our Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction

Leeds have had some heavy losses to Arsenal since they returned to the Premier League. They arrive at the Emirates this weekend in good shape, particularly defensively. They have kept two away clean sheets this season and their last match ended goalless.

Arsenal's great start to the season ended with a 3-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion.  That was a poor performance by the Gunners and they've had three weeks to get it out of their system. Our main Arsenal v Leeds prediction is less than 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5 goals

 
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Arsenal vs Leeds Alternative Predictions

Arsenal wins

Odds 1.4
Arsenal have won their eight matches against Leeds United.
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Arsenal vs Leeds - FAQs

This is the first Premier League game of the weekend. It is being played on Saturday October 10 with a 12:30 UK time kick-off.
This is a home match for Arsenal. It will therefore be played at the Emirates in North London.
TNT Sports will be showing Arsenal v Leeds live and you will need a subscription to view this channel. Go to our Premier League livescore to access plenty of information about this match. There you will find updated statistics and live text commentary.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.