Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA China Open
WTA - WTA China Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Iga Swiatek, the eighth seed in this year's China Open, will face 16th seed Elise Mertens in the quarter-finals. This will be their third career meeting, and our prediction backs Swiatek for a third win.
Mertens is having her best-ever run in Beijing and has grown from strength to strength. Playing past the third round for the first time, the Belgian is coming off a morale-boosting victory, one of her biggest this term.
Facing third seed and former Beijing champion Cori Gauff in the fourth round, Mertens fought against the odds to win in straight sets.
The win was her first against the American, and she seeks the same against Swiatek. This year's Monterrey champion, Mertens, has improved to 33 wins and sits 18th in the live ranking.
Swiatek won both times she met Mertens, doing it in straight sets, with their most recent matchup being in Miami last season. This streak, coupled with her strong form in the Chinese capital, places the Pole as the most likely to sail through to the semi-finals.
Swiatek, champion in Beijing three seasons ago, made easy work of 10th seed Iva Jovic in the last round. She won in straight sets against a player who has been in strong form.
Currently ranked ninth in the WTA, Swiatek, who has had a subpar year by her standards, has compiled a 39-14 record, winning one title.
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Elise Mertens v Iga Swiatek Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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4.4 | 1.2 |
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4.39 | 1.22 |
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4.36 | 1.22 |
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4.36 | 1.22 |
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4.5 | 1.2 |
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Who will win the Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek match is: exact score: 1-2.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek game on 07/10/2026 of the current WTA China Open season:
- Elise Mertens has a 28.26% chance to win against Iga Swiatek according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 4.5.
- Iga Swiatek has a 71.74% probability of winning facing Elise Mertens ⭐ with odds of 1.22 at 1xbet.
Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Elise Mertens has a 28.26 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | 28.26 % |
| Iga Swiatek | 71.74 % |
Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Form
Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
7 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
5 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
2 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
25 Sept 2026 - WTA Singapore
5 Sept 2026 - WTA US Open
3 Sept 2026 - WTA US Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
7 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
4 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
3 Oct 2026 - WTA China Open
7 Sept 2026 - WTA US Open
5 Sept 2026 - WTA US Open
3 Sept 2026 - WTA US Open
Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
23 Mar 2025 - WTA Miami
18 Apr 2024 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Elise Mertens - Iga Swiatek Key Points
- On hard courts this year, Swiatek has won 28 times.
- Swiatek won the previous two meetings between these players.
- Four of Mertens' six quarter-finals at the WTA 1000 level ended in defeat.
- Mertens has lost close to 50 duels when facing top-10-ranked opponents.
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Our Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek Prediction
Our prediction for Elise Mertens v Iga Swiatek is for the exact score: 1-2. Swiatek has dominated her previous matchups with Mertens which places her as the favorite here. The Pole is undefeated in this fixture, winning twice without dropping a set.
However, we feel a rejuvenated Mertens will make it much more of a contest this time. The Belgian is coming off a big win against Cori Gauff, one of the tournament's favorites, and a player who had a dominant streak against her. Breaking that losing run certainly sparked something, but Swiatek should have enough to sail through, having been in strong form on hard courts.
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It does not matter whether you bet on Elise Mertens or Iga Swiatek, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
