Challenge Cup Predictions & Betting tips
Presentation of the EPCR Challenge Cup - Rugby
The Challenge Cup is Europe's second-largest rugby union club competition. This event brings together 18 European and South African teams for the 2025-26 edition.
It's a great competition to follow for several months, much to the delight of punters. The 2025-26 season will see some great teams battle it out in an interesting format, and there are plenty of good bets to be had throughout the tournament!
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Our free prediction on the winner of the 2025-26 Challenge Cup final
Despite being drawn in the ‘Group of Death’, there’s plenty to be bullish about regarding Ulster’s chances of lifting the EPCR Challenge Cup. The Irish side is a regular in this competition’s big brother, the Champions Cup, and will thus feel very confident that they’ll be able to win the Challenge Cup title for the first time. What’s more, they start off their campaign with a home match against another favourite for the Challenge Cup title in Racing 92. If Ulster can get the better of the French club in Belfast, they’ll build both confidence and momentum, and could be a difficult team to stop for their rivals.
Ulster have exited in the round of 16 in three of the last four Champions Cup seasons and the step down to the Challenge Cup could wind up doing them some good. They certainly have the quality to go all the way and lift the title, which could very well serve them in the future when they inevitably return to the Champions Cup. Additionally, the players will now be accustomed to the high-stakes nature of top-level knockout round rugby, which they are sure to benefit from in the Challenge Cup. Our 2025-26 EPCR Challenge Cup prediction: Ulster champions!
Group stage draw
Below you'll find the live standings for the group stage of the 2025-26 Rugby Challenge Cup. The action is set to kick of on 05 December 2026, so mark your calendars and get ready!
Pool 1
- Black Lion
- Connacht
- Montpellier
- Ospreys
- Montauban
- Zebre
Pool 2
- Benetton
- Dragons
- Lions
- Lyon
- Newcastle
- Perpignan
Pool 3
- Cardiff Rugby
- Free State Cheetahs
- Exeter
- Racing 92
- Stade Francais
- Ulster
Ready to make your selections for who will win in the coming matches? You can see the best available current odds by heading over to our Challenge Cup odds page.
Beginner sports bettors - how does the Challenge Cup work?
As with the Champions Cup, the format of rugby union's second European club cup has changed somewhat in recent seasons. Here is the current format of the EPCR Challenge Cup for the 2025-26 edition:
- 18 teams take part in the Challenge Cup, divided into three groups of 6.
- Each team plays four different opponents, either at home or away, during the group phase.
- The top four teams in each group qualify for the last 16.
- The EPCR Cup is played over a period of eight weekends.
- There are four days of group matches and four weekends of knockout matches.
- The tournament kicks off on 05 December 2025 and finishes on 22 May 2026, with the Grand Final to be held at Bilbao's San Mames Stadium.
The Challenge Cup is therefore highly competitive, and the calendar stretches over many months, making your predictions on the competition particularly interesting. Don't hesitate to try your luck with the bookmakers as there's plenty to play for given the number of big teams taking part!
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Our expert tips for betting on the Challenge Cup
First and foremost, the competition in the Challenge Cup has become increasingly tough over the years, and there is always plenty of excitement given the evenly-matched level of the teams in the competition. Although French and English teams generally dominate proceedings, it is not uncommon to see clubs from other nations performing well in the Challenge Cup in recent years. With the recent arrival of South African franchises in this tournament, the duels are even more interesting to follow. In the 2022-2023 edition of the Challenge Cup, the Lions and Cheetahs were far from ridiculous. Better still, the Sharks lifted the title in 2023-24. Don't underestimate the South African sides again this season for your rugby predictions.
Would you like to place reliable bets on this Challenge Cup? Sportytrader's specialists will give you their advice on how to make the best predictions for the matches in this competition.
- Take into account the level of play of Challenge Cup teams
- Pay attention to the schedule of teams taking part in the Challenge Cup
- Take absences into account
- Favour the Challenge Cup teams who are at home
First of all, we recommend that you create an account with as many bookmakers as possible. By registering with as many betting sites as possible, you will be able to maximise your winnings by always entering the best odds. There can be significant differences depending on the bookmaker you use so bet your pounds wisely.
Below you will find all our advice in detail on how to place reliable bets on the Challenge Cup.
Take into account the level of play of Challenge Cup teams
First off, it's important to analyse the level of play of each team taking part in the competition. So take an interest in the rugby league championships in which the various Challenge Cup teams are competing, check the rankings and the latest results of the clubs, as well as their record in the European Cups. This will give you a good idea of which teams are favourites to make the final and which have little chance of progressing from the group stage.
You should also take into account the history of matches between the two teams, especially if there have been recent duels between them. If one club has a record of 10 wins to 0 against another, there's a good chance of an 11th victory. With this first tip alone, you can start to make more informed predictions about the matches ahead.
Paying attention to the calendar of teams taking part in the Challenge Cup
Secondly, we advise paying close attention to the teams' schedules. Back-to-back matches? International tour? A big league match coming up for a team? All these factors can make the difference in a Challenge Cup match.
Coaches can't always field their best team, given that every match is physically demanding for the players, and it's not uncommon to see a squad rotate for a Challenge Cup match. By the same token, look to see if there is something at stake for each team in the match you want to bet on. The coach of a team that has picked up 0 points in 3 games and is therefore certain to be eliminated will probably rotate his team for the next league clash. It may therefore be worth betting on the opposite team if the odds are good enough given the context.
Taking absences into account
In the same vein as the previous point, find out if any key players will be absent for an upcoming match. There may be injuries or suspensions to key players for a match, which can make a big difference. Teams rely heavily on certain players to make the difference, especially in the Challenge Cup.
If a major player is absent, his team's chances of victory are weakened and the associated odds will therefore be higher than if he were present. So always try to find out the likely lineups of the teams before placing your bet.
Favour Challenge Cup teams that are hosting
Final piece of advice: favour teams that play at home. As you will see from the statistics below, playing at home is a real advantage in the Challenge Cup, as it is in the league. There are many reasons why teams do better at home.
First of all, the role of the public plays a big part. Their support is a real help to the players, who especially need it at important moments in a match. The fact that they are used to playing in their own stadium is also a help, because they have their bearings and references, which is an asset. The fact that they don't have to travel also reduces their fatigue, which makes them perform better.
Finally, it's rarer to see teams rotate their squad at home than away. So you can see why teams do indeed play better when at home.
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What not to do when making Challenge Cup predictions
In addition to the tips on how to make a successful rugby Challenge Cup prediction and increase your chances of success in Europe's second biggest rugby club competition, it's important to be aware of the mistakes that could harm your Challenge Cup bets. Here is a list of actions to avoid before placing a bet on the Challenge Cup in January 2026:
- Place Challenge Cup bets on the spur of the moment
- Not managing your Challenge Cup bets
- Betting on a Challenge Cup team that has nothing at stake
- Betting on your favourite club without any concrete analysis
- Playing the same type of bet over and over again
- Ignoring the latest news from clubs taking part in the Challenge Cup
- Betting on the Challenge Cup without taking the odds into account
In sports betting, and particularly in the Rugby Challenge Cup, these mistakes can cost you dearly. Try at all costs to break these bad habits, as it will be beneficial for your Challenge Cup betting in the long run.
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Rugby Challenge Cup predictions: statistics to remember
To make the right predictions for the 2025-26 Challenge Cup, a few statistics can be very useful. Here are the most important from the last edition (2024-25):
- Average points per game: 52.62
- Average points scored at home: 30.8
- Average points scored away from home: 21.9
- Matches within +2.5 points of each other: 92%
- Matches within +4.5 points of each other : 78%
- Matches within +7.5 points of each other: 71%
- Matches within +14.5 points of each other: 47%
- Matches within +19.5 points of each other: 33%
- Matches within +29.5 points of each other: 14%
- Home wins: 65%
- Draws: 2%
- Away wins: 33%
It's not uncommon to see victories by large margins in this Challenge Cup, moreso than the Champions Cup, where the matches tend to be tighter. It may therefore be worth choosing this type of bet for your next predictions on this new edition. It's worth noting that the big wins often come in the group stages. After that, the competition is much stiffer which results in closer games from the round of 16 onwards.
We therefore advise you to favour betting on the handicap in the group stages and to take a chance on the underdogs in the final stages. Additionally, you'll always want to factor in the venue, as we touched on earlier on this page. As you can see from the above numbers, home teams tend to dominate, winning over 2/3rds of all matches in the 2024-25 edition. Be sure to keep these figures in mind when planning your predictions!
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In a nutshell: how do you bet on the Challenge Cup and make successful rugby predictions?
To make the most of betting on the Challenge Cup, which is an increasingly popular tournament in France, don't hesitate to use the advice provided by our experts on this page.
In addition, you can of course use the statistics we have calculated for you, while taking advantage of the best Challenge Cup odds thanks to our odds comparator. Now you're ready to optimise your Challenge Cup results by making reliable predictions!
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Our current Challenge Cup predictions
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EPCR Challenge Cup: best odds
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