Challenge Cup Predictions & Betting tips

Presentation of the EPCR Challenge Cup - Rugby

The Challenge Cup is Europe’s second-largest rugby union club competition. This event brings together 18 European and South African teams for the 2026-27 edition: eight clubs from the United Rugby Championship, six from the Top 14, two from the Premiership, and two invited sides, South Africa’s Cheetahs and Georgia’s Black Lion.

It’s a great competition to follow for several months, much to the delight of punters. The pool stage got under way on 16 October 2026, and the final takes place on Friday 21 May 2027 at OL Stadium in Lyon. Last season, Montpellier claimed their third Challenge Cup title with a 59-26 win over Ulster in the final, and they’ve since moved up to the Champions Cup. Ulster are back in Pool 1, looking to go one better. The 2026-27 season will see some great teams battle it out in an interesting format, and there are plenty of good bets to be had throughout the tournament!

Sign up with Bet365 and bet on the Challenge Cup

Our free prediction on the winner of the 2026-27 Challenge Cup

Our experts have highlighted Ulster as the team to watch heading into the 2026-27 edition of the Challenge Cup. They reached last season's final before losing 59-26 to Montpellier, and after finishing 9th in the United Rugby Championship they are the highest-placed URC side in this year’s field. We believe they'll benefit from the experience of a European final which could drive them on in what is a competitive field this time around.

Ulster also have a kind draw. Pool 1 sees them matched up with the Cheetahs, Perpignan, the Dragons, Bayonne and Zebre Parma. Compared with Pool 3, that many are dubbing the group of death, which contains the likes of Toulon, Harlequins, Edinburgh and the Ospreys. Topping the pool would earn a home tie in the Round of 16.

The main threats are Toulon, three-time Champions Cup winners from 2013 to 2015 but only 9th in last season’s Top 14, and the Sharks, who won this competition in 2024. But we believe Ulster have the squad to challenge them. Ten of their players were called up to Ireland’s summer squad, including Stuart McCloskey, Ulster’s Player of the Year. Richie Murphy has kept his coaching team together and added seven players, four of them forwards, including Zimbabwean lock Eli Snyman. Our Challenge Cup prediction: Ulster champions!

Beginner sports bettors - how does the Challenge Cup work?

As with the Champions Cup, the format of rugby union’s second European club cup has changed somewhat in recent seasons. Here is the current format of the EPCR Challenge Cup for the 2026-27 edition:

• 18 teams take part in the Challenge Cup, divided into three groups of 6.
• Each team plays four different opponents, two at home and two away, during the group phase.
• The top three teams in each group qualify automatically for the last 16, with the top two earning home ties.
• Three more places go to the best-performing fourth- and fifth-placed teams across the three groups, ranked by match points. Four clubs also drop down from the Champions Cup to complete the last 16.
• A try bonus point is now only awarded for scoring three or more tries more than your opponent, rather than for scoring four tries.
• The competition is played over a period of eight weekends: four rounds of group matches and four weekends of knockout matches.
• The tournament kicked off on 16 October 2026 and finishes on 21 May 2027, with the Grand Final to be held at OL Stadium in Lyon.

The Challenge Cup is therefore highly competitive, and the calendar stretches over many months, making your predictions on the competition particularly interesting. Don’t hesitate to try your luck with the bookmakers as there’s plenty to play for given the number of big teams taking part!

Our expert tips for betting on the Challenge Cup

First and foremost, the competition in the Challenge Cup has become increasingly tough over the years, and there is always plenty of excitement given the evenly-matched level of the teams in the competition. French and English clubs have traditionally had the edge, but they don’t have it all their own way: Bath won the title in 2025, Montpellier in 2026, and last season’s final also featured Irish province Ulster.

South African sides are a regular presence in this tournament, which makes the duels even more interesting to follow. The Sharks lifted the title in 2023-24 and return this season, joined by the Cheetahs, who are back as one of two invited clubs alongside Georgia’s Black Lion. Don’t underestimate the South African sides again this season for your rugby predictions.

Would you like to place reliable bets on this Challenge Cup? Sportytrader's specialists will give you their advice on how to make the best predictions for the matches in this competition.

• Take into account the level of play of Challenge Cup teams
• Pay attention to the schedule of teams taking part in the Challenge Cup
• Take absences into account
• Favour the Challenge Cup teams who are at home

First of all, we recommend that you create an account with as many bookmakers as possible. By registering with as many betting sites as possible, you will be able to maximise your winnings by always entering the best odds. There can be significant differences depending on the bookmaker you use so bet your pounds wisely.

Below you will find all our advice in detail on how to place reliable bets on the Challenge Cup.

Take into account the level of play of Challenge Cup teams

First off, it's important to analyse the level of play of each team taking part in the competition. So take an interest in the rugby league championships in which the various Challenge Cup teams are competing, check the rankings and the latest results of the clubs, as well as their record in the European Cups. This will give you a good idea of which teams are favourites to make the final and which have little chance of progressing from the group stage. 

You should also take into account the history of matches between the two teams, especially if there have been recent duels between them. If one club has a record of 10 wins to 0 against another, there's a good chance of an 11th victory. With this first tip alone, you can start to make more informed predictions about the matches ahead.

Paying attention to the calendar of teams taking part in the Challenge Cup

Secondly, we advise paying close attention to the teams' schedules. Back-to-back matches? International tour? A big league match coming up for a team? All these factors can make the difference in a Challenge Cup match. 

Coaches can't always field their best team, given that every match is physically demanding for the players, and it's not uncommon to see a squad rotate for a Challenge Cup match. By the same token, look to see if there is something at stake for each team in the match you want to bet on. Under the current format, more teams stay in contention until the final round, since the best fourth- and fifth-placed sides across the pools can still qualify. Even so, a coach whose team is certain to miss out will probably rotate his squad for the remaining matches. It may therefore be worth betting on the opposite team if the odds are good enough given the context.

Taking absences into account

In the same vein as the previous point, find out if any key players will be absent for an upcoming match. There may be injuries or suspensions to key players for a match, which can make a big difference. Teams rely heavily on certain players to make the difference, especially in the Challenge Cup.

If a major player is absent, his team's chances of victory are weakened and the associated odds will therefore be higher than if he were present. So always try to find out the likely lineups of the teams before placing your bet.

Favour Challenge Cup teams that are hosting

Final piece of advice: favour teams that play at home. As you will see from the statistics below, playing at home is a real advantage in the Challenge Cup, as it is in the league. There are many reasons why teams do better at home.

First of all, the role of the public plays a big part. Their support is a real help to the players, who especially need it at important moments in a match. The fact that they are used to playing in their own stadium is also a help, because they have their bearings and references, which is an asset. The fact that they don't have to travel also reduces their fatigue, which makes them perform better.

Finally, it's rarer to see teams rotate their squad at home than away. So you can see why teams do indeed play better when at home.

What not to do when making Challenge Cup predictions

In addition to the tips on how to make a successful rugby Challenge Cup prediction and increase your chances of success in Europe's second biggest rugby club competition, it's important to be aware of the mistakes that could harm your Challenge Cup bets. Here is a list of actions to avoid before placing a bet on the Challenge Cup in October 2026:

• Place Challenge Cup bets on the spur of the moment
• Not managing your Challenge Cup bets
• Betting on a Challenge Cup team that has nothing at stake
• Betting on your favourite club without any concrete analysis
• Playing the same type of bet over and over again
• Ignoring the latest news from clubs taking part in the Challenge Cup
• Betting on the Challenge Cup without taking the odds into account

In sports betting, and particularly in the Rugby Challenge Cup, these mistakes can cost you dearly. Try at all costs to break these bad habits, as it will be beneficial for your Challenge Cup betting in the long run.

Sign up with Bet365 and bet on the Challenge Cup

Rugby Challenge Cup predictions: statistics to remember

To make accurate predictions for the 2026–2027 Challenge Cup, a few statistics can be very useful. Here are the most important ones from the last edition (2025-26):

• Average points per game: 54.5
• Average points scored at home: 32
• Average points scored on the road: 22
• Games with a margin of +2.5 points: 90%
• Games with a margin of +4.5 points: 71%
• Games with a margin of +7.5 points: 61%
• Games with a margin of +14.5 points: 43%
• Games with a +19.5-point spread: 31%
• Games with a +24.5-point spread: 18%
• Games with a +29.5-point spread: 16%
• Home team win: 68%
• Draw: 4%
• Away team win: 28%

As you can see, it’s not uncommon to see lopsided victories in this Challenge Cup. It may therefore be worth focusing on this type of bet for your upcoming predictions in this new edition. Note, however, that lopsided victories often occur during the group stage. After that, the matches become much closer starting in the round of 16.

We therefore recommend favoring handicap bets during the group stage and instead backing the underdogs in the knockout rounds. For example, Lyon was listed at 3.10 against Toulon in the 2021-22 Challenge Cup final. Keep this in mind for your predictions this season.

In a nutshell: how do you bet on the Challenge Cup and make successful rugby predictions?

To make the most of betting on the Challenge Cup, don't hesitate to use the advice provided by our experts on this page.

In addition, you can of course use the statistics we have calculated for you, while taking advantage of the best Challenge Cup odds thanks to our odds comparator. Now you're ready to optimise your Challenge Cup results by making reliable predictions!

Our current Challenge Cup predictions

Our Challenge Cup predictions and betting tips will be available soon. Check back regularly for the latest insights.

EPCR Challenge Cup: best odds

Odds are not yet available for this competition.