Pafos FC vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League action kicks off at the Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi, where Pafos FC will be playing host to Monaco in a crucial Matchday 5 encounter. The Light Brigade and the red and Whites are 20th and 19th in the League Phase standings, respectively, after four games. Check out our match prediction below!
Pafos’ incredible rise over the past decade reached new heights on Matchday 4, as they recorded their first-ever victory in the UCL proper by beating Spanish giants Villareal. Barring a hefty defeat to Bayern Munich, the Cypriot champs have taken something from their other three games in this competition, and another win here will massively improve their qualification chances.
For Monaco, the 2025-26 season has been a tale of two realities. Domestically, they’ve struggled to find their best form, losing five of their 13 league games to date, while in Europe, they have only tasted defeat in one of their four matches. The visitors are the clear favourites in this one - let’s get into the key stats!
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
The Best Betting Odds for Pafos FC v Monaco Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 | 4.75 | 1.48 |
|
|
6.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.45 | 4.3 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.4 | 4.4 | 1.48 |
|
|
6.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Pafos FC and Monaco?
Our prediction for the Pafos FC vs Monaco match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/11/2025 between Pafos FC and Monaco in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.93% for a win of Pafos FC against Monaco with odds of 6.9 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Pafos FC vs Monaco is 19.61% with odds of 4.76 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.46% chance ⭐ for a win of Monaco vs Pafos FC with odds of 1.57 at Shangrila.
Pafos FC - Monaco Prediction and Best Odds:
| Pafos FC Monaco Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pafos FC wins | 45.93% | 6.9 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.84% | 1.96 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 64.29% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Pafos FC | 18.33% | 13 at Bet365 |
Pafos FC vs Monaco Form
Pafos FC and Monaco's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
19
|
9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
|
26
|
6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 |
Pafos FC and Monaco Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
9 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
2 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
30 Oct 2025 - Super Cup
27 Oct 2025 - Cypriot First Division
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
2 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
30 Oct 2025 - Super Cup
17 Oct 2025 - Cypriot First Division
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Cypriot First Division
27 Oct 2025 - Cypriot First Division
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - Cypriot First Division
21 Sept 2025 - Cypriot First Division
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
Pafos FC - Monaco: Form Analysis
Pafos will enter this match riding a wave of confidence, currently unbeaten in their last four games in all competitions (W3 D1) after defeating Aris Limassol 2-1 in the First Division at the weekend.
The Light Brigade have only scored two goals in the UCL this season - the second fewest in the competition - but they have been impressive in defence, maintaining three clean sheets in four games.
The hosts are a difficult team to beat on their home patch (as Villareal found out on MD4). They have only lost two of their last 15 games at Alphamega Stadium, one of which was against Bayern Munich.
Pafos have kept clean sheets in five of their last 10 home matches!
Meanwhile, November has been a dismal month for Monaco domestically, but they did manage to secure their first victory in this season’s UCL campaign last time out, 1-0 against Bodo/Glimt.
As mentioned, the Monegasques' domestic and European forms have been significantly different. They’ve conceded eight goals in their last two Ligue 1 games, but kept clean sheets in their last two in this competition.
That victory over Bodo/Glimt was also the only shutout the visitors have managed in away games this season. In their last six outings in all competitions, Monaco have shipped 16 goals.
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
Pafos FC against Monaco Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
A. Papadoudis
P. Petrou
DefenderB. Langa
K. Pileas
ForwardM. Bassouamina
Jaja
N. Dimata
P. Kohn
DefenderK. Ouattara
T. Kehrer
A. Bamba
S. Idumbo-Muzambo
M. Coulibaly
P. Cabral
P. Pogba
ForwardG. Ilenikhena
M. Biereth
L. Michal
A. Fati
Missing players
E. Dier
C. Mawissa
Pafos FC & Monaco Squad Analysis
Pafos will have to make do without the services of Joao Correia after he received the fastest red card in the history of the Champions League against Kairat, clocked at three minutes and three seconds.
As a result, Romanian international Vlad Dragomir should lead the line for the hosts this week, with support from Mislav Orsic, who scored an absolute stunner against Bayern back on Matchday 2.
Pedrao has now missed 11 games since undergoing surgery on his knee and will remain sidelined for the foreseeable future, while Ken Sema is flagged as a minor doubt due to a knock.
Will we see Paul Pogba back in the Champions League this week?
A standing ovation greeted the Frenchman as he made his first appearance in over two years following a drug ban at the weekend, albeit the match ended in disappointment, with his side losing 4-1 to Rennes.
Dennis Zakaria was sent off in the 66th minute in that fixture, but he should partner Mamadou Coulibaly in central midfield here before commencing his domestic ban against PSG this weekend.
Eric Dier suffered a setback in his recovery from a calf issue and is expected to remain sidelined for a few more weeks. Christian Mawissa is the only other confirmed absentee for the visitors in this match.
Most goals and assists
Pafos FC
Monaco
M. Orsic
(1 Goals)
, 
D. Luckassen
(1 Goals)
, 
D. Luiz
(1 Goals)
F. Balogun
(3 Goals)
K. Sema
(1 Assists)
,
M. Orsic
(1 Assists)
M. Akliouche
(2 Assists)
Pafos FC - Monaco Key Points
- Each of Pafos’ last seven games have ended with under 3.5 goals.
- Pafos have kept clean sheets in three of their four UCL games this season.
- Pafos have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last five home games.
- Monaco have kept clean sheets in their last two UCL games.
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
Our Pafos FC vs Monaco Prediction
Pafos may not be the most attacking team in the Champions League this season, but they have managed to remain competitive thanks to their compact setup and a disciplined defence that has kept three clean sheets in four games.
While Ligue 1 matches involving Monaco have been goal fests of late, they have looked much better defensively in this competition. With three points likely to be massive to these sides’ qualification hopes, we feel this could turn into a tactical affair where clear-cut chances may be at a premium. Our Pafos FC vs Monaco prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Pafos FC vs Monaco - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score (NO)
Pafos have kept clean sheets in three of their four UCL games this season, while Monaco have shut opponents out in their last two matches in this competition.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Pafos FC Monaco
| Pafos FC vs Monaco | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos FC wins | 8 | 6.9 | -13.8% |
| Draw | 4.72 | 4.76 | +0.8% |
| Monaco wins | 1.47 | 1.57 | +6.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Pafos FC is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 13.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 12.5% and is now 14.5% (2.0%)
Win free tickets to Pafos FC vs. Monaco at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Pafos FC vs. Monaco match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
*Entrants must be 18+ and UK residents, with a bet365 account. All entrants will be subject to vetting to ensure they are compliant with responsible gambling guidelines.
Pafos FC vs Monaco - FAQs
The Champions League match between Pafos FC and Monaco will take place on November 26 at 17:45 GMT.
The Champions League match between Pafos FC and Monaco will be played at the Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.
The Champions League match between Pafos FC vs Monaco will be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
