Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Carabao Cup Predictions
It promises to be a thriller as Chelsea battle arch-London rivals Arsenal in this 2025–26 EFL Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. Can the Blues edge past the Gunners to boost their chances of qualifying for the final? Read on for further details and our prediction.
Since their 2014–15 triumph, Chelsea's EFL Cup campaign has been one of heartbreaks and founded hopes. They have reached the semi-final of the competition four times and lost three finals since then. This will be their second high-profile encounter against Arsenal in domestic cup competition after their 2020 FA Cup final defeat to the Gunners.
Arsenal are now into a second straight EFL Cup semi-final after a 4–0 aggregate defeat to Newcastle at this same stage last season. They have waited for over three decades for their second EFL Cup trophy and the wait continues after their 1993 triumph. Mikel Arteta's charges are at least 270 minutes away from breaking this jinx and heading into this clash unbeaten in their last seven matches at Stamford Bridge (W3, D4). Can they edge past Chelsea on Wednesday to close in on winning the EFL trophy? Let's get right into detailed stats and analysis.
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Chelsea v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.65 | 3.35 | 1.98 |
|
|
3.98 | 3.58 | 1.9 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.4 | 2.02 |
|
|
4.1 | 3.6 | 1.81 |
|
|
4.3 | 3.6 | 1.93 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Arsenal match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/01/2026 between Chelsea and Arsenal in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.29% for a win of Chelsea against Arsenal with odds of 4.3 at Roobet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Arsenal is 30.27% with odds of 3.65 at BC Game.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Chelsea with odds of 2.03 at 888Starz.
Chelsea - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 42.44% | 2.03 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.07% | 1.97 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal | 18.12% | 5 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Arsenal Form
Chelsea and Arsenal Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
16 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Chelsea vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
10 Nov 2024 - Premier League
23 Apr 2024 - Premier League
21 Oct 2023 - Premier League
2 May 2023 - Premier League
Chelsea - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Alejandro Garnacho struck twice as Chelsea eased past Cardiff City 3–1 in the quarterfinals to book their EFL Cup semi-final berth. However, this result turned out to be now-sacked manager Enzo Maresca's final win.
After the victory over Cardiff, the Blues went five matches (all in the Premier League) without a win (D3, L2) before new manager Liam Rosenior returned the team to winning ways in his first match in charge, thrashing Charlton Athletic 5–1 away in the FA Cup on Saturday. They have both scored and conceded in each of those matches, highlighting their efficiency on the offense, but with unchecked defensive blunders.
Chelsea and Arsenal have clashed eight times in the EFL Cup with Chelsea winning four and drawing one
Arsenal needed the lottery of a penalty shootout to see off Crystal Palace in the quarterfinals after a pulsating 1-1 draw. However, Mikel Arteta's charges are on a terrific ride this season, firing on all four fronts to stay top of the Premier League, Champions League, and strongly in contention for the FA and EFL Cup trophies.
The Gunners demolished Portsmouth 4–1 in the FA Cup on Sunday to extend their unbeaten run to nine matches across all competitions (W8, D1). They have both scored and conceded in six of those matches and are unbeaten in their last eight matchups against Chelsea.
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Chelsea against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
F. Jorgensen
DefenderB. Badiashile
J. Hato
T. Adarabioyo
D. Essugo
F. Buonanotte
T. George
ForwardS. Mheuka
A. Garnacho
D. Raya
MidfielderC. Norgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Merino
N. Madueke
G. Martinelli
E. Eze
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
Missing players
L. Colwill
MidfielderC. Palmer
R. Lavia
ForwardM. Mudryk
P. Hincapie
C. Mosquera
Chelsea & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Chelsea have been handed a big boost in the defense as Marc Cucurella returns after serving his suspension against Charlton Athletic in the FA Cup. However, the Blues will miss Moises Caicedo who remains suspended for picking up a second yellow card against Cardiff.
Liam Rosenior confirmed that he dropped Cole Palmer, Reece James and Malo Gusto from the Charlton game as a precaution due to minor fitness concerns. However, the trio are expected to return for the big game against Arsenal.
For Arsenal, the trio of Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapie and Riccardo Calafiori are all unavailable due to injuries. Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes and Myles Lewis-Skelly remain Arteta's top options for the back.
Chelsea's new manager Liam Rosenior will make his Stamford Bridge debut as Chelsea boss against Arsenal
Viktor Gyokeres appears to have lost his goal-scoring magic since switching to the London club from Sporting Lisbon, but is likely to retain his place in the attack on Wednesday despite Kai Havertz's return from injury.
Leandro Trossard has a team high 13 G/A (seven goals & six assists) but is a doubt for this match after Mikel Arteta stated that the 31-year-old has picked up a slight injury. Bukayo Saka (11 G/A) is available to strengthen and lift the Gunners' attack.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Arsenal
A. Garnacho
(4 Goals)
L. Trossard
(1 Goals)
, 
E. Eze
(1 Goals)
,
B. Saka
(1 Goals)
,
E. Nwaneri
(1 Goals)
, 
V. Gyokeres
(1 Goals)
,
B. White
(1 Goals)
, 
M. Zubimendi
(1 Goals)
, 
K. Havertz
(1 Goals)
J. Gittens
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Santos
(2 Assists)
M. Lewis-Skelly
(2 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(2 Assists)
Chelsea - Arsenal Key Points
- Chelsea have both scored and conceded in their last nine matches.
- Chelsea have both scored and conceded in their last three home matches against Arsenal.
- Chelsea have scored in their last 12 home matches across all competitions.
- Arsenal have both scored and conceded in six of their last nine matches.
- Arsenal have found the net in their last 13 away matches across all competitions.
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Our Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction
This match takes on added significance as the two teams look to close in on ending their long trophy drought. Arsenal boast an impressive 3–4–0 record in their last seven games at Stamford Bridge. However, Wednesday's clash won't be a stroll in the park for Mikel Arteta's men.
Notably, the two teams are renowned for their attacking style of play, but their defensive weaknesses have been evident. We expect a possibly high-scoring affair with both teams finding the net. Our Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction is BTTS.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
We expect this match to end with at least three goals scored. Six of Chelsea's last seven matches have ended with over 2.5 goals. Four of Arsenal's last five matches have also produced no fewer than three goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Arsenal
| Chelsea vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 2.92 | 4.3 | +47.3% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.65 | +10.6% |
| Arsenal wins | 2.38 | 2.03 | -14.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 14.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.0% and is now 49.3% (7.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
