Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Carabao Cup Predictions
The League Cup holders, Newcastle United, will continue with their cup defence when they host Manchester City for the first of the two-legged semi-finals. This Tuesday, they welcome City to St. James’ Park, hoping to take an advantage going into the return match in three weeks in Manchester. Read on to find our prediction for this match.
This will mark the second time these two sides meet this season. In the first game, also played at the Magpies’ backyard, Newcastle earned a 2-1 victory in the league back in November. City and Newcastle have played each other three times in the League Cup, with the latter winning the last two matchups.
Despite this strong run and the fact that they are the holders, bookies do not fancy a Newcastle United win. To get to this stage, City defeated Brentford in a one-off tie in the quarter-finals, whereas Newcastle saw off Fulham.
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The Best Betting Odds for Newcastle v Manchester City Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.75 | 2.15 |
|
|
3 | 3.4 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.5 | 2.15 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Manchester City?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Manchester City match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 13/01/2026 between Newcastle and Manchester City in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.46% for a win of Newcastle against Manchester City with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Manchester City is 25.66% with odds of 3.75 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester City vs Newcastle with odds of 2.2 at Bwin.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Form
Newcastle and Manchester City Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Newcastle vs Manchester City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
15 Feb 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2024 - Premier League
16 Mar 2024 - FA Cup
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
27 Sept 2023 - Carabao Cup
Newcastle - Manchester City: Form Analysis
Newcastle United ended a 56-year wait for a trophy when they overcame Liverpool in the final of the League Cup last season. The win also ended an even longer trophy drought for domestic success. The Magpies are keen to make winning trophies the norm.
Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have reached the final of the cup twice in the last three seasons. With their current hot streak, they will be confident of continuing this trend. The Toon Army is on a four-match winning run. They defeated Bournemouth through post-match penalties in a pulsating game over the weekend. That marked a winning start to their FA Cup campaign.
Newcastle won both previous League Cup encounters against City.
Manchester City was also victorious this weekend in the FA Cup, producing one of the highlight victories of the third round. Pep Guardiola’s men, who are active in four competitions, moved to 12 games unbeaten with a 10-1 wallop of League One side Exeter.
It was a much-changed side at the Etihad, but we expect a full-strength side at Newcastle. City has won the EFL Cup a total of eight times. Five of those successes have come in the last 10 seasons. If they go on to win this season’s title, the Sky Blues will move to just one title shy of the all-time record.
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Missing players
N. Pope
DefenderS. Botman
K. Trippier
ForwardW. Osula
Joelinton
J. Stones
MidfielderM. Kovacic
Rodri
Newcastle & Manchester City Squad Analysis
Aaron Ramsdale was the hero in the shootouts and might maintain his place between the sticks. Harvey Barnes scored twice to take his tally for the season to 11 and has a strong case for a start here. Barnes, with three goals in the last two games, will complement Nick Woltemade and Anthony Gordon, who have a combined 17 goals.
Newcastle will once again be without the injured trio of Anthony Elanga, Dan Burn, and Jamal Lascelles. Fabian Schar and Jacob Murphy missed the Bournemouth tie with injuries, while Tino Livramento came off injured.
Manchester City will miss about five players in this clash.
Manchester City's new signing, Antoine Semenyo, was in excellent form as he scored and assisted on his debut. Erling Haaland played the opening half against Exeter and was unable to find the back of the net. It was his fourth blank return in the last five games.
The Norwegian, however, remains City’s main threat in a pool filled with talent and has already scored 26 goals in 28 appearances this term. Phil Foden is City’s second leading scorer with 10 goals. He should return for this game after being unused against Exeter. Oscar Bobb, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, and Mateo Kovacic remain sidelined.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Manchester City
H. Barnes
(9 Goals)
, 
N. Woltemade
(9 Goals)
E. Haaland
(26 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
R. Cherki
(8 Assists)
Newcastle - Manchester City Key Points
- City scored 10 goals in their most recent fixture.
- City have conceded in four of their last five games.
- Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 outings.
- In each of their last four fixtures, Newcastle scored two or more goals.
- Both sides scored in seven of City’s last 10 matches away to Newcastle.
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Our Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction
Our prediction for Newcastle United v Manchester City is for BTTS. This is a semi-final first-leg tie, and both teams will be keen to take an early advantage. This match, therefore, might turn out to be a goalfest given how in top form both teams are.
City are a free-scoring side and netted 10 in their last fixture. Newcastle are also a strong attacking side and have flexed their fluidity in recent outings. Seeing both teams get on the scoresheet here is very likely, as both teams are missing key players in defence.
Newcastle vs Manchester City - Other Interesting Predictions
Manchester City to win.
For our second prediction, we pick City to win. The visitors rested key players in their last match and will be much fresher for this fixture.
Newcastle played through extra time and penalties over the weekend and are now in a race against time to have everyone ready. Having not lost in 12 games and winning nine times, City should be able to take full advantage of a jaded opponent.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Newcastle vs. Manchester City game!
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Try your luck on this year's Carabao Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Newcastle vs Manchester City - FAQs
This match will be played on Tuesday, 13 January.
This match will be played at Newcastle’s St. James’ Park in Newcastle, England.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
