Metz vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Ian John | in Ligue 1 Predictions
We're heading to Ligue One for our next match prediction this week as struggling Metz host Marseille in what should be an interesting clash at the Stade Saint-Symphorien. Stephane Le Mignan's Maroons have struggled this season and are yet to win, while Roberto De Zerbi's Phocaeans have started the season brightly.
This is emphasised by the league table where after six games of the campaign so far, Metz sit bottom of the table with just two points collected from six matches. In contrast, Marseille have won four of their opening six matches, losing the other two games, and sit third in the table, ahead of Monaco and Strasbourg on goal difference but three points behind PSG and Lyon.
As you would expect for the bottom club Metz, their form isn't great heading into this fixture. Without a win this season, they have at least drawn two of their last three. A 1-1 home draw with Angers was followed by a 5-2 defeat away to AS Monaco, but last weekend they earned another point with a 0-0 draw at home to Le Havre.
Marseille's form heading into this fixture is outstanding. They began a their run of three wins with an impressive 1-0 win over Paris St. Germain and then followed that with a 2-1 away win over Strasbourg, two wins over teams that were above them in the table. Then in midweek, they thrashed Ajax 4-0 in their second Champions League League Stage game.
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Metz v Marseille Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 | 4.6 | 1.52 |
|
|
6.2 | 4.72 | 1.56 |
|
|
5.95 | 4.54 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.15 | 4.58 | 1.49 |
|
|
6 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Metz and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Metz vs Marseille match is: Marseille wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/10/2025 between Metz and Marseille in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.72% for a win of Metz against Marseille with odds of 7.5 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Metz vs Marseille is 32.19% with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.09% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Metz with odds of 1.56 at 1xbet.
Metz - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Metz Marseille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 40.09% | 1.56 at 1xbet |
| Under 2.5 | 61.04% | 2.4 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 54.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille | 20.77% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Metz vs Marseille Form
Metz and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
|
18
|
17 | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | -44 |
Metz and Marseille Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 May 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Metz vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
83 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Feb 2024 - Ligue 1
18 Aug 2023 - Ligue 1
13 Feb 2022 - Ligue 1
7 Nov 2021 - Ligue 1
23 May 2021 - Ligue 1
26 Sept 2020 - Ligue 1
Metz against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
P. Sy
DefenderI. Sane
M. Colin
G. Tsitaishvili
I. Guerti
G. Abuashvili
A. Toure
M. Bokele
B. Madjo
J. De Lange
DefenderL. Balerdi
C. Egan-Riley
U. Garcia
A. Murillo
B. Nadir
A. Vermeeren
P. Aubameyang
A. Gouiri
Missing players
B. Stambouli
MidfielderU. Mboula
F. Medina
MidfielderG. Kondogbia
H. Traore
Most goals and assists
Metz
Marseille
G. Hein
(8 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
G. Hein
(5 Assists)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
Metz - Marseille Key Points
- Metz are yet to win a game this season.
- Marseille have won all their last three games heading into this fixture against quality opposition.
- Metz have not won any of their previous nine games against Marseille.
- Only Lorient (14) have conceded more than Metz's 13 league goals this season.
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Our Metz vs Marseille Prediction
Our prediction for the Metz vs. Marseille Ligue One match is: Marseille wins the match.
The data for this game is strongly suggesting that a win for Marseille is the result to back here. Metz have yet to win a league game this season. Marseille come into this fixture on the back of three outstanding wins. The home team has struggled to score goals and conceded plenty, Marseille have been scoring lots of goals recently. As such, backing the visitors to land the win is the bet to back here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Metz Marseille
| Metz vs Marseille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz wins | 6 | 7.5 | +25.0% |
| Draw | 4.4 | 4.8 | +9.1% |
| Marseille wins | 1.52 | 1.56 | +2.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 65.8% and is now 64.1% (-1.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
