Metz vs Lyon Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Metz are looking to slow down their drift back to Ligue 2 and will hope for a positive outcome when they meet Lyon. Hosting this Ligue 1 game, Metz are at the foot of the league table while Lyon are fourth. Let’s have a look at the match prediction here.
The gap between Metz and safety hasn’t widened a lot in recent weeks but Metz remain six points adrift. It should be a concern for the promoted side, as they aren’t winning much.
Les Grenats are coming from a 2-1 loss at Strasbourg, their 12th defeat of the season. The last time they won a league game was in November, which was the third of three straight wins.
Lyon are on a different trajectory. They wrapped up 2025 with three straight wins but started 2026 with four on the bounce.
As Les Gones come here on a seven-game winning streak, and having only lost once in 10, we don’t expect any surprises. Lyon are straight off a 1-0 away win against Young Boys in the Europa League.
That was their third away win on the bounce, and among the teams they’ve beaten were Lille and Monaco. Across their last four meetings with Metz, Lyon are unbeaten, with three wins registered.
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Metz v Lyon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.2 | 4 | 1.71 |
|
|
5.25 | 3.76 | 1.68 |
|
|
5.25 | 3.84 | 1.66 |
|
|
5.25 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
|
|
5.2 | 3.75 | 1.66 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Metz and Lyon?
Our prediction for the Metz vs Lyon match is: Lyon to win and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/01/2026 between Metz and Lyon in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.36% for a win of Metz against Lyon with odds of 5.4 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Metz vs Lyon is 13.51% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 64.14% chance ⭐ for a win of Lyon vs Metz with odds of 1.72 at 888Starz.
Metz - Lyon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Metz Lyon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon wins | 64.14% | 1.72 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.96% | 1.93 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 58.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Lyon/Lyon | 31.33% | 2.6 at Bet365 |
Metz vs Lyon Form
Metz and Lyon's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
60 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +13 |
|
18
|
17 | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | -44 |
Metz and Lyon Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
7 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
28 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
7 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
11 Dec 2025 - Europa League
30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
Metz vs Lyon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Feb 2024 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2023 - Ligue 1
7 Jan 2023 - French Cup
8 May 2022 - Ligue 1
22 Dec 2021 - Ligue 1
Metz against Lyon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
O. Ba
DefenderB. Stambouli
I. Sane
C. Melieres
F. Ballo-Toure
MidfielderG. Abuashvili
U. Mboula
B. Munongo
M. Mbaye
R. Descamps
DefenderM. Niakhate
A. Karabec
M. De Carvalho
T. Goncalves
ForwardA. Hamdani
A. Gomes Rodriguez
R. Himbert
P. Sulc
Missing players
P. Sy
ForwardJ. Mangondo
N. Tagliafico
A. Vinicius
MidfielderR. Ghezzal
N. Nartey
ForwardE. Nuamah
M. Fofana
Most goals and assists
Metz
Lyon
G. Hein
(8 Goals)
C. Tolisso
(11 Goals)
, 
P. Sulc
(11 Goals)
G. Hein
(5 Assists)
A. Moreira
(7 Assists)
, 
Endrick
(7 Assists)
Metz - Lyon Key Points
- At least three goals were scored in four of these teams’ last five meetings.
- Metz are winless in the last four meetings with Lyon, losing three.
- Lyon posted wins in each of their last seven matches.
- Seven of Lyon’s last 10 outings had over 2.5 goals.
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Our Metz vs Lyon Prediction
Metz have started 2026 in the same fashion they ended 2025; without a win. As they look to arrest their current slump, they are faced with a tough opponent, who is determined to rise into the title challenge.
While Metz are clearly the weakest team, the visitors have started the new year as one of the strongest and we don’t expect any upsets here. The only strength Metz bring here is that they scored in five of the last six meetings with Lyon. Our prediction for Metz v Lyon is for Lyon to win and over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Metz Lyon
| Metz vs Lyon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz wins | 4.7 | 5.4 | +14.9% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.1 | +7.9% |
| Lyon wins | 1.68 | 1.72 | +2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lyon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.5% and is now 58.1% (-1.4%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
