UFC - UFC 318
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
Featherweight legend Max “Blessed” Holloway meets seasoned veteran Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier in the main event of UFC 318. This lightweight trilogy bout for Holloway's BMF title pits Holloway's relentless high-volume striking against Poirier's veteran " Thugjitsu" game. Holloway, now fighting full-time at 155 lbs., comes in off a spectacular last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje to win the BMF belt in 2024, although he lost to Topuria right after. By contrast, Poirier, fighting in his hometown of New Orleans on short rest, is 2-0 in this rivalry but has dropped two of his last three bouts (a KO to Gaethje and a submission to Islam Makhachev).
In their history, The Diamond won their first two meetings (a 2012 submission and a 2019 decision). However, times have changed, as Blessed is still improving at lightweight, whereas Poirier's career is winding down. Given Holloway's youth, championship momentum, and striking skills versus Poirier's recent struggles and wear from injuries, our analysis leans toward Holloway wearing Poirier down inside five rounds. Nevertheless, Poirier's experience and crowd support will make it competitive.
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Max Holloway - Dustin Poirier: Form Analysis
Max Holloway enters this fight riding a powerful wave of momentum. Since returning to lightweight, he has looked sharper than ever, knocking out Justin Gaethje with a buzzer-beater KO to claim the BMF title. Prior to that, he dismantled Chan-sung Jung in three rounds. Both wins showed that Holloway not only retains his famed cardio and volume but has also added finishing power at 155 lbs. His striking differential remains among the best in UFC history, and his ability to avoid damage while dishing out heavy volume makes him a serious threat across five rounds.
Dustin Poirier, meanwhile, has fought three times since early 2023. He was submitted by Islam Makhachev in a title bout, knocked out cold by Gaethje in a BMF showdown, and narrowly defeated Benoit Saint-Denis with a KO. While that last win showed his grit and power, Poirier has looked more hittable and vulnerable in recent performances. Add in a longer layoff and more accumulated damage, and the edge in form clearly leans toward Holloway.
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Max Holloway & Dustin Poirier Squad Analysis
Max Holloway has an impressive record of 26–8 across 34 fights, tallying 12 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, and 12 decisions. His victories often come from high-volume striking, relentless pace, and durability. Holloway has been knocked out once, tapped once, and regularly maintains fights into deep waters.
Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier’s professional record stands at 30–9, with 16 wins by KO/TKO, 7 by submission, and 7 decision victories. Poirier has proven to be a potent finisher with striking and grappling, but can also go the distance.
Their past head‑to‑head encounters came early in their careers, where Poirier submitted Holloway in 2012 and defeated him by decision in 2019. But both have evolved significantly, as Holloway has become a striking machine, and Poirier a well-rounded clinical finisher.
Max Holloway - Dustin Poirier Key Points
- Max Holloway is the reigning UFC BMF champion after knocking out Justin Gaethje.
- Holloway has knockout victories in his two of his three most recent bouts (Gaethje and Chan-sung Jung).
- Dustin Poirier has lost two of his last three fights (to Islam Makhachev and Justin Gaethje).
- Poirier leads the H2H 2–0, but both wins came earlier in their careers (2012 submission, 2019 decision). Holloway has evolved since then.
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Our Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier Prediction
Ultimately, Max Holloway enters this fight as the favorite. Holloway’s relentless output, reach, and recent stoppage form give him advantages, while The Dustin's waning momentum and recent losses imply he may struggle to keep pace. Although Poirier will have home crowd energy and veteran instincts, the physical toll of past injuries and a lengthy layoff could limit his performance.
Holloway is fresh off historic wins and still in his athletic prime at lightweight, so we expect him to control the fight’s tempo. Given these factors, we predict Holloway will outpoint Poirier over five rounds of even knockout the veteran. Hence, our Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier prediction is Max Holloway to win.Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier - Other Interesting Predictions
Max Holloway to win by decision or TKO.
While a decision victory seems most likely given Holloway’s cardio and volume-based style, a late TKO is also on the table. “Blessed” is known for wearing opponents down with relentless pressure, often landing triple-digit strikes by the final horn. Against a 36-year-old Poirier who has absorbed significant damage in recent fights, that kind of sustained output could force a doctor stoppage or ref intervention in the later rounds.
Poirier is incredibly tough, but in his losses to Makhachev and Gaethje, he showed declining durability. If he can survive five rounds, Holloway will outpoint him cleanly. If not, a fourth or fifth-round TKO is a realistic scenario, especially given Holloway’s improved finishing at lightweight and the cumulative effect of his striking volume.
Dustin Poirier to win.
Despite Holloway’s momentum, backing Dustin Poirier as a alternate or hedge bet has real merit. The Diamond has already beaten Holloway twice, including once at lightweight in a five-round war where he outstruck and outpowered Max over 25 minutes. Poirier’s boxing fundamentals, counterpunching, and bodywork have historically troubled volume strikers, and he remains one of the division’s most efficient finishers.
Even though he’s had recent setbacks, Poirier still knocked out Benoit Saint-Denis in brutal fashion and gave Islam Makhachev one of his toughest title defenses. In a high-emotion retirement fight, with the crowd behind him and no pressure to chase another belt, Poirier could fight with full freedom. If he lands clean early, especially to the body or off counters, he could slow Holloway’s pace and possibly stop him or steal rounds with power shots. As an underdog, Poirier by KO or decision offers decent value.
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