Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction & Betting Tips - French Cup
France - French Cup
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by Nella Wagah | in French Cup Predictions
Marseille welcome Toulouse this week in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France. The two teams will battle again in the league this coming weekend. Let's look at our prediction for this match.
Marseille were held to a 2-2 draw in the league when Toulouse were in town. Though they failed to win, the result continued a 14-year unbeaten run in this fixture.
L'OM last lost to Toulouse in 2012, and though there has been a break in this fixture, with their visitors being relegated, it is still 13 matches unbeaten. Les Olympiens have won eight times in this streak.
Marseille are coming off an exciting 3-2 victory over in-form Lyon that maintained their quest for a top-four finish in Ligue 1.
Toulouse haven’t won in four games and have lost three times. Les Violets fell 1-0 away to Rennes over the weekend in the league. It was their third successive away defeat.
Carles Martine’s men are looking to emulate the feat of the team from three seasons ago that won the Coupe de France. The 22/23 Cup success was Toulouse’s first title victory in the competition.
Les Tef defeated Amiens 1-0 in the previous round to advance to the quarters for the first time since that Cup success.
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Marseille v Toulouse Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.86 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.84 | 3.66 | 4.22 |
|
|
1.84 | 3.66 | 4.22 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.6 | 4 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Toulouse?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Toulouse match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/03/2026 between Marseille and Toulouse in French Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.92% for a win of Marseille against Toulouse with odds of 1.86 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Toulouse is 26.24% with odds of 3.85 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.84% chance ⭐ for a win of Toulouse vs Marseille with odds of 4.5 at Tonybet.
Marseille - Toulouse Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Toulouse Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 44.92% | 1.86 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 1.9 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 51.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille | 16.14% | 5 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Toulouse Form
Marseille and Toulouse Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Jan 2026 - French Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
Marseille vs Toulouse Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
6 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2024 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
17 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
Marseille against Toulouse Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. De Lange
DefenderC. Egan Riley
B. Pavard
Emerson
MidfielderB. Nadir
N. Tocukvu
H. Traore
E. Nwaneri
A. Lago
G. Restes
DefenderG. Bakhouche Piernas
S. Koumbassa
W. Kamanzi
A. Vossah
M. Sauer
ForwardJ. Russell Rowe
S. Hidalgo
J. Vignolo
Missing players
A. Dominguez
MidfielderA. Francis
R. Messali
Marseille - Toulouse Key Points
- Only one of Marseille’s last 10 opponents failed to score.
- Marseille have scored 11 goals in their last four matches at home.
- Toulouse have scored in seven of their previous nine away fixtures.
- Only one of the last seven meetings between Toulouse and Marseille failed to see both teams score.
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Our Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction
Our prediction for Marseille v Toulouse is BTTS. This fixture is the first of a back-to-back schedule between these two, who will meet again in the league this coming weekend. Winning both matches will be a big boost for either team.
We expect a tough battle that will most likely see both teams get on the scoresheet. Marseille are a fluid offensive machine, especially when playing at home. Defensively, though, they have struggled, and Toulouse, who are a decent attacking team themselves, can find ways of exploiting this weakness.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Toulouse
| Marseille vs Toulouse | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.62 | 1.86 | +14.8% |
| Draw | 4.1 | 3.85 | -6.1% |
| Toulouse wins | 5 | 4.5 | -10.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 53.8% (-8.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
